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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Consolidated Communications Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:CNSL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CNSL
Name:
CONSOLIDATED COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CNSL)
Sector:
- 74920.00K
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. Charles Udell
Total Employees:
3,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -21.74% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CONSOLIDATED COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC.(CNSL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.74
One Month Price Target:
$5.77
Six Month Price Target :
$5.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.3
This week:
$4.75
This month :
$3.76
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
671.60M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
115.40M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.27%
-21.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.80
$6.84
$3.68
$4.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.53
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.33
$4.94
$5.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CNSL
Sharpe Ratio:
3.36%
Comparison:
CNSL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 245.54% higher than the industry
& ratio is 47.40% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CNSL
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.69%
Monthly returns:
2.75%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 85.79% above industry average
Classification:
CNSL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
CNSL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.83%
Weekly Volatility:
8.57%
Monthly Volatility:
17.14%
Yearly Volatility:
59.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.93% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.73%
Weekly VaR:
-17.29%
Monthly VaR:
-34.58%
How Much Can the price of
CNSL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.08
This translates to price declining to:
$0.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CNSL is a 144.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 109.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.43% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CNSL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.739
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.045
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.148
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.689
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.597
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.129
Beta is -20.48% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is 9.66% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.237
Alpha is 163.12% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1510% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CNSL
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is 6.19% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.54%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-3.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
-2.51%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-2.51%
WACC is -58.86% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.90
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.54
Annual revenue growth rate is -107.71% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
63.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 155.08% higher than the Telecom Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 528.63% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$18.38
EBITDA per share
$0.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
CNSL
P/E Ratio:
14.7
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
208.15
P/E ratio is -92.94% lower than main peers & is -50.19% lower than the industry
-
CNSL is -111.05% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.53
Price to sales ratio is -91.58% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.54
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
59.72%
Net income growth rate is -85.33% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
500.86%
Net debt to equity ratio:
485.32%
Debt to assets ratio:
58.99%
Net debt to assets ratio:
57.16%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -22.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1.04
Interest coverage ratio is -166.01% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.20%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.11%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.379
Statistical significance of correlation:
CNSL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is -17.81% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.032
Kurtosis
8.81
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.709
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CNSL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
221%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-0.87%
Operating profit margin is -127.66% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
221%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.80%
Effective tax rate is -102.49% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-37.97%
Return on equity (ROE) is 888.77% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is 2353.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.4x
Current Ratio:
1.44
Current ratio is -10.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
11.7
Cash conversion cycle is -83.44% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.37%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
393.0K
Each employee generates -61% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
21.9K
Each employee generates -94% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 50.2K
Each employee generates -148% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 23.4K
Each employee generates -141% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
987.0K
Each employee generates -141% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CNSL
BOSTON OMAHA CORPORATION (XNYS:BOC)
VIVID SEATS INC. (XNAS:SEAT)
STAGWELL INC. (XNAS:STGW)
RIBBON COMMUNICATIONS INC. (XNAS:RBBN)
DOUYU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:DOYU)
OUTBRAIN INC. (XNAS:OB)
ORBCOMM INC. (XLON:0A7Z)
FT:Gold Strat Target Inc (BATS:IGLD)
QUINSTREET, INC. (XNAS:QNST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.26B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
561.55M
696.20M
-
-
277.56M
-
222.19M
499.75M
-
- 67688.00K
297.34M
70.14M
- 10890.00K
- 160781.00K
- 158883.00K
1.28M
- 160781.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
72.35M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.20M
Change in Working Capital :
3.65M
Accounts Receivables:
12.04M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
118.91M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
81.56M
Investments in PP&E:
- 156480.00K
Net Acquisitions:
26.04M
Purchases of Investments:
- 39959.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
74.17M
85.77M
159.94M
121.33M
-
155.69M
436.95M
1.98B
929.57M
76.78M
109.03M
-
59.29M
3.16B
-
3.60B
39.81M
8.38M
-
53.00M
201.24M
302.42M
2.12B
555.45M
2.86B
-
3.16B
1.15M
- 257263.00K
- 53646.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.06B
423.46M
3.59B
194.80M
2.13B
2.1B
65.75M
74.00K
- 104569.00K
- 2341.00K
-
- 114.00K
-
-
- 2455.00K
-
- 25464.00K
74.17M
99.64M
81.56M
- 156480.00K
- 74920.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CNSL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$6.11
$6.48
$6.87
$7.28
$7.72