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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Conocophillips (XNYS:COP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COP
Name:
CONOCOPHILLIPS (XNYS:COP)
Sector:
1.91B
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Ryan Lance
Total Employees:
9,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -45.74% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CONOCOPHILLIPS(COP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
110.26
One Month Price Target:
$111.07
Six Month Price Target :
$115.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$119.99
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$109.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$111.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$102.77
This week:
$93.51
This month :
$76.76
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
140.36B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.27B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.21%
-24.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$144.99
$128.85
$75.53
$91.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$123.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$120.15
$96.88
$100.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COP
Sharpe Ratio:
3.94%
Comparison:
COP, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -14.24% lower than the industry
& ratio is 72.92% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COP
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.71%
Monthly returns:
2.84%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -44.53% below industry average
Classification:
COP, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
COP has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.38%
Weekly Volatility:
7.55%
Monthly Volatility:
15.10%
Yearly Volatility:
52.31%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.25%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.39% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.79%
Weekly VaR:
-15.19%
Monthly VaR:
-30.38%
How Much Can the price of
COP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$82.44
This translates to price declining to:
$16.54
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COP is a 114.42% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 83.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -36.74% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.822
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.162
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.056
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.812
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.95
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.201
Beta is 9.34% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -34.75% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.38%
Sustainable growth rate is -58.98% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.219
Alpha is -50.72% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1395% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COP
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is -28.29% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.77%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.96%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.96%
WACC is -23.62% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$42.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -84.83% below industry average
EPS:
$9.72
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -105.73% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.63
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 52.46%
Equity growth rate per share is -57.96% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$13.81
EBITDA per share
$21.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
COP
P/E Ratio:
9.08
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.95
P/E ratio is -8.73% lower than main peers & is -78.44% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $409.34
COP is -73.06% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.61
Price to sales ratio is -46.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.85
Price to free cash flow: 11.45
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
13.74%
Net income growth rate is -98.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.72%
Dividend yeild: 1.74%
Previous Dividend: $0.70
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.70
Previous Dividend: $1.92
Expected next dividend best case: $0.80
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.60
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 13.96%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 26/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 28/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-27--$0.70
2022-03-30--$0.30
2021-12-31--$0.20
2022-05-16--$0.46
2022-02-11--$0.46
2021-10-27--$0.46
Dividend growth rate is -66.26% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
35.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
25.06%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.22%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -64.61% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
23.11
Interest coverage ratio is 191.41% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
29.70%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 18.39%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.58
Statistical significance of correlation:
COP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is 47.09% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.065
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.128
Kurtosis
10.948
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.045
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
149%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
32.18%
Operating profit margin is -2438.80% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
149%
Effective Tax Rate:
31.96%
Effective tax rate is 61.50% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is 206.84% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.78%
Return on assets (ROA) is 499.28% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.51
Current ratio is -24.25% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-2.4
Cash conversion cycle is -103.43% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 25.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
5.7M
Each employee generates -28% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.9M
Each employee generates 19% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.4M
Each employee generates 227% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
202.9K
Each employee generates -320% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
8.1M
Each employee generates -320% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
COP
BP P.L.C. (XETR:BPE5)
Equinor ASA (XNYS:EQNR)
Enbridge Inc. (XNYS:ENB)
TotalEnergies SE (XNYS:TTE)
Brazilian Petroleum Corporation - Petrobras (XNYS:PBR)
PBR-A
PetroChina Company Limited (XNYS:PTR)
EOG RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:EOG)
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED (XNYS:CNQ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�38%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
53.76B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
33.46B
20.30B
-
-
595.00M
-
2.41B
3.00B
-
1.18B
7.15B
27.23B
17.30B
12.86B
18.90B
6.04B
12.86B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.82B
Differed Income Tax :
373.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 1957000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 930000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.07B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
37.00M
Purchases of Investments:
- 263000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
6.41B
730.00M
7.14B
7.88B
1.17B
1.39B
17.59B
64.64B
-
-
8.31B
-
2.77B
75.72B
-
93.31B
4.90B
1.16B
3.16B
-
5.57B
11.62B
17.59B
8.32B
32.47B
-
44.09B
21.00M
45.44B
- 4808000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
36.47B
49.22B
93.31B
9.04B
18.75B
12.3B
-
- 385000.00K
- 611000.00K
- 3964000.00K
271.00M
- 1425000.00K
- 864000.00K
2.85B
- 3137000.00K
21.00M
1.34B
6.74B
5.40B
5.07B
- 3161000.00K
1.91B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$120.37
$130.99
$142.55
$155.13
$168.82