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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Connectone Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:CNOB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CNOB
Name:
CONNECTONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CNOB)
Sector:
45.84M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Frank Sorrentino
Total Employees:
434
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -3987.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CONNECTONE BANCORP, INC.(CNOB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.6
One Month Price Target:
$24.77
Six Month Price Target :
$25.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.01
This week:
$21.04
This month :
$17.47
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
950.47M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.24M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.96%
-25.37%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.00
$28.61
$17.20
$20.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.78
$21.69
$22.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CNOB
Sharpe Ratio:
1.23%
Comparison:
CNOB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.37% higher than the industry
& is -45.90% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CNOB
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.96%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 5.67% above industry average
Classification:
CNOB, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
CNOB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.18%
Weekly Volatility:
7.11%
Monthly Volatility:
14.21%
Yearly Volatility:
49.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.27%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.02% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.48%
Weekly VaR:
-14.49%
Monthly VaR:
-28.98%
How Much Can the price of
CNOB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.43
This translates to price declining to:
$3.69
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CNOB is a 104.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 75.22% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.27% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CNOB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.23
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.766
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.083
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.895
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.564
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.946
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.002
Beta is 22.90% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 27.74% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.70%
Sustainable growth rate is 17.19% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.001
Alpha is -104.55% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -3% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CNOB
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is 18.78% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.11%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.83%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.83%
WACC is -3.34% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.32
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.85
Annual revenue growth rate is 89.24% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.68%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 30.44% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.11
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 81.81%
Equity growth rate per share is 111.27% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$14.70
EBITDA per share
$5.47
Valuation Analysis Today of
CNOB
P/E Ratio:
7.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
58.91
P/E ratio is -86.60% lower than main peers & is -36.39% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $38.96
CNOB is -36.86% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $65.23
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.89
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.36
Price to sales ratio is -21.45% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.85
Price to free cash flow: 5.99
Price to free cash flow ratio is -53.54% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
97.55%
Net income growth rate is 77.13% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.17%
Dividend yeild: 2.13%
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.16
Previous Dividend: $0.53
Expected next dividend best case: $0.17
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.96%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.16
2021-11-12--$0.13
2021-05-14--$0.11
2022-02-11--$0.13
2021-08-13--$0.11
2021-02-11--$0.09
Dividend growth rate is -74.70% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
50.68%
Net debt to equity ratio:
24.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.96
Interest coverage ratio is 619.66% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.02%
Annual debt growth is -738% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 26.31%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.454
Statistical significance of correlation:
CNOB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -9.30% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.055
Kurtosis
11.037
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.337
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CNOB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.98%
Effective tax rate is 20.57% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.31%
Return on equity (ROE) is -5.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is -32.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
658.9
Current ratio is 999.31% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.89%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
662.2K
Each employee generates 74% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
494.6K
Each employee generates 119% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
296.6K
Each employee generates 110% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
105.6K
Each employee generates 27% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.8M
Each employee generates 27% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CNOB
GERMAN AMERICAN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GABC)
EBSB
JAMES RIVER GROUP HOLDINGS, LTD. (XNAS:JRVR)
LANDCADIA HOLDINGS IV UNT (XNAS:LCAHU)
COWEN INC. (XNAS:COWN)
Calamos Conv Opp Inc (XNAS:CHI)
KEARNY FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:KRNY)
Calamos Conv & High Inc (XNAS:CHY)
PREMIER FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:PFC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
287.39M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
73.41M
-
77.21M
78.64M
1.43M
- 22112.00K
351.00K
307.13M
35.99M
4.73M
214.64M
-
128.74M
173.92M
45.19M
128.74M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.42M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.15M
Change in Working Capital :
11.90M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
45.84M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
311.54M
512.03M
823.57M
34.08M
-
6.90B
7.76B
39.18M
208.37M
8.56M
525.23M
-
-
781.34M
9.12B
8.33B
-
11.77M
-
-
-
11.77M
576.97M
-
576.97M
7.76B
7.20B
586.95M
464.89M
- 8269.0K
- 15974.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.14B
8.33B
1.04B
588.74M
277.2M
-
- 160214.00K
- 160214.00K
- 206039.00K
-
- 4786.00K
- 1509.00K
372.71M
160.38M
-
46.01M
311.54M
265.54M
45.84M
-
45.84M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CNOB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.76
$83.70
$90.62
$98.12
$106.24