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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Confluent, Inc. (XNAS:CFLT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CFLT
Name:
CONFLUENT, INC. (XNAS:CFLT)
Sector:
- 58427.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Edward Kreps
Total Employees:
1,981
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -12.71% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CONFLUENT, INC.(CFLT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.72
One Month Price Target:
$25.06
Six Month Price Target :
$26.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.76
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.34
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.76
This week:
$18.09
This month :
$11.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.96B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
281.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.17%
-21.87%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.49
$32.25
$10.95
$17.19
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.88
$19.21
$20.56
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CFLT
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.64%
Comparison:
CFLT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -139.41% lower than the industry
& is -128.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CFLT
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.14%
Monthly returns:
-0.57%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -147.87% below industry average
Classification:
CFLT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
CFLT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.83%
Weekly Volatility:
13.03%
Monthly Volatility:
26.05%
Yearly Volatility:
90.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.99%
Weekly VaR:
-26.82%
Monthly VaR:
-53.64%
How Much Can the price of
CFLT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-48%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.91
This translates to price declining to:
$3.71
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CFLT is a 278.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 224.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 74.85% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CFLT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.43
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.038
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
-0.094
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
-0.116
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 118.76% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.267
Alpha is -837.86% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1699% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CFLT
Equity cost of capital:
0.198
Equity cost of capital is 84.01% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.55
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.34
Annual revenue growth rate is 185.00% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
62.54%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 107.61% higher than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$3.94
EBITDA per share
-$1.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
CFLT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
CFLT is -123.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
15.95
Price to sales ratio is 45.23% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.34
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
328.82%
Net income growth rate is -96.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
132.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
8.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.95%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.12%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.23% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2102.12%
Annual debt growth is 1854% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
-0.027
Statistical significance of correlation:
CFLT does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -105.71% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.036
Kurtosis
1.648
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.008
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CFLT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
255%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-92.90%
Operating profit margin is 682.75% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
255%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.98%
Effective tax rate is -103.11% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-49.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is -146.08% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-17.75%
Return on assets (ROA) is 368.61% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
6.64
Current ratio is 185.13% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
109.2
Cash conversion cycle is -3.00% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-13.95%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
220.6K
Each employee generates -44% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 203.5K
Each employee generates -411% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 207.6K
Each employee generates -1091% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 29.5K
Each employee generates -249% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
61.7K
Each employee generates -249% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 53.63%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2168.23% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CFLT
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
436.98M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
159.23M
277.74M
195.27M
120.91M
488.43M
367.52M
-
683.70M
1.74M
-
4.10M
- 403194.00K
- 405958.00K
- 411262.00K
- 407289.00K
3.97M
- 411262.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.25M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
57.37M
Change in Working Capital :
- 13249.00K
Accounts Receivables:
12.78M
Other Working Capital:
7.13M
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.59M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 55031.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 887.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 403883.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.05B
943.05M
1.99B
124.50M
-
80.11M
2.20B
53.30M
-
-
-
-
68.95M
122.25M
-
2.32B
8.15M
8.54M
9.23M
235.12M
78.92M
330.73M
1.11B
8.83M
1.15B
-
1.48B
3.00K
- 861841.00K
- 5542.0K
1.70B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
842.93M
836.07M
2.32B
-
1.12B
72.3M
95.55M
- 2509.00K
- 311734.00K
-
-
-
-
38.47M
38.47M
- 46.00K
- 328343.00K
1.05B
1.38B
- 55031.00K
- 3396.00K
- 58427.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CFLT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.76
$33.46
$38.93
$45.29
$52.69