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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Conagra Brands, Inc. (XNYS:CAG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CAG
Name:
CONAGRA BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:CAG)
Sector:
- 15100.00K
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. Sean Connolly
Total Employees:
18,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -47.91% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CONAGRA BRANDS, INC.(CAG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
34.22
One Month Price Target:
$34.33
Six Month Price Target :
$34.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$35.52
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$34.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$34.34
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$32.95
This week:
$31.37
This month :
$28.53
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
16.26B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
480.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.87%
-9.96%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.12
$37.41
$28.32
$31.03
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$36.52
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.94
$31.91
$32.50
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CAG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.84%
Comparison:
CAG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 40.73% higher than the industry
& is -19.08% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CAG
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.85%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 21.54% above industry average
Classification:
CAG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
CAG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.83%
Weekly Volatility:
4.10%
Monthly Volatility:
8.19%
Yearly Volatility:
28.38%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.91% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.72%
Weekly VaR:
-8.32%
Monthly VaR:
-16.63%
How Much Can the price of
CAG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-57.62%
This translates to price declining to:
$29.35
This translates to price declining to:
$14.50
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CAG is a 17.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 0.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.92% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CAG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.56
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.668
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.944
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.304
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.238
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.296
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.586
Beta is -3.87% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is -3.88% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.11%
Sustainable growth rate is -32.58% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.032
Alpha is 156.84% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 205% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CAG
Equity cost of capital:
0.070
Equity cost of capital is -2.17% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.79%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.14%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.27%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.27%
WACC is -3.24% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$23.65
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.9
Annual revenue growth rate is -51.73% below industry average
EPS:
$2.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.22%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -21.15% lower than the Packaged Foods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.40
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 15.28%
Equity growth rate per share is 214.62% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$18.27
EBITDA per share
$4.15
Valuation Analysis Today of
CAG
P/E Ratio:
18.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.94
P/E ratio is 3.57% higher than main peers & is -51.93% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $83.08
CAG is -58.81% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $95.06
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $48.57
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.45
Price to sales ratio is -37.60% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.9
Price to free cash flow: 24.51
Price to free cash flow ratio is -30.31% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
33.58%
Net income growth rate is 212.11% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.72%
Dividend yeild: 3.66%
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31
Previous Dividend: $1.25
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.32%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-28--$0.31
2021-10-29--$0.31
2021-04-29--$0.28
2022-01-28--$0.31
2021-08-02--$0.31
2021-01-28--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -1291.65% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
102.60%
Net debt to equity ratio:
107.43%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.95%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.79%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -27.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.2
Interest coverage ratio is -97.89% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-7.63%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.61%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.321
Statistical significance of correlation:
CAG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is -25.07% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.03
Kurtosis
13.34
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.587
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CAG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.48%
Operating profit margin is 158.53% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.18%
Effective tax rate is -57.85% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.14%
Return on equity (ROE) is 9.89% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.61%
Return on assets (ROA) is 3.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.96
Current ratio is -64.94% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-18.2
Cash conversion cycle is -137.07% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.25%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
631.4K
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
110.8K
Each employee generates -2% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
57.7K
Each employee generates 11% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.8K
Each employee generates -77% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -77% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CAG
THE J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY (XNYS:SJM)
ALBERTSONS COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:ACI)
CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY (XNYS:CPB)
Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV (XNYS:KOF)
THE CLOROX COMPANY (XNYS:CLX)
MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY (XNYS:TAP)
TAP-A
KELLOGG COMPANY (XNYS:K)
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (XNYS:DAR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/27/22
Revenue:
11.37B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.52B
2.85B
-
-
1.43B
-
-
1.43B
1.40M
383.50M
383.70M
1.99B
1.42B
1.04B
1.10B
188.60M
1.04B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
96.50M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 174400.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
57.60M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 20300.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
139.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 154900.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1900.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/29/21
2022
Q1
67.00M
-
67.00M
834.40M
1.95B
116.20M
2.97B
2.65B
11.37B
4.14B
-
-
1.41B
19.57B
-
22.54B
1.67B
480.50M
-
-
935.40M
3.09B
8.78B
2.03B
10.81B
-
13.90B
2.92B
6.35B
- 9400.0K
- 703100.00K
August 29, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
9.95B
8.56B
22.46B
-
9.26B
9.2B
-
1.90M
- 154900.00K
- 522300.00K
-
- 50000.00K
- 132100.00K
709.90M
5.50M
- 2600.00K
- 12200.00K
68.00M
80.20M
139.80M
- 154900.00K
- 15100.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CAG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.61
$46.30
$48.06
$49.87
$51.76