_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (XNAS:CMTL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CMTL
Name:
COMTECH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORP. (XNAS:CMTL)
Sector:
-
Industry:
Communication Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Fred Kornberg
Total Employees:
2,038
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1504.58% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COMTECH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORP.(CMTL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.1
One Month Price Target:
$11.21
Six Month Price Target :
$11.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.17
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.18
This week:
$9.04
This month :
$6.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
312.24M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.51M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.1%
-22.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.38
$13.46
$6.82
$8.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.42
$9.36
$9.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CMTL
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.32%
Comparison:
CMTL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -279.01% lower than the industry
& is -201.82% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CMTL
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.42%
Monthly returns:
-1.68%
Yearly returns:
12.89%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -256.50% below industry average
Classification:
CMTL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
CMTL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.00%
Weekly Volatility:
8.95%
Monthly Volatility:
17.90%
Yearly Volatility:
61.99%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.77%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.74% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.30%
Weekly VaR:
-18.57%
Monthly VaR:
-37.13%
How Much Can the price of
CMTL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.35
This translates to price declining to:
$1.67
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CMTL is a 162.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 124.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 26.29% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CMTL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.017
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.439
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.387
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.668
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.807
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
2.248
Beta is -23.74% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.197
Beta is 43.19% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.351
Alpha is -2384.67% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2232% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CMTL
Equity cost of capital:
0.149
Equity cost of capital is 31.21% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.05%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.78%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.78%
WACC is 51.95% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.52
Annual revenue growth rate is -138.54% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.08
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.50%
Equity growth rate per share is -121.59% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.52
EBITDA per share
$0.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
CMTL
P/E Ratio:
330.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.81
P/E ratio is 1131.73% higher than main peers & is 789.64% higher than the industry
-
CMTL is -127.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $10.20
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.69
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.6
Price to sales ratio is -73.60% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.52
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-328.96%
Net income growth rate is -172.15% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -6.86%
Dividend yeild: 3.60%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.40
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-19--$0.10
2021-10-12--$0.10
2021-04-20--$0.10
2022-01-18--$0.10
2021-07-20--$0.10
2021-01-19--$0.10
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
25.89%
Net debt to equity ratio:
22.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.43%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.11% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.06
Interest coverage ratio is -88.86% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
37.10%
Annual debt growth is -466% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.376
Statistical significance of correlation:
CMTL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is -31.95% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.037
Kurtosis
8.438
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.406
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CMTL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
150%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-4.36%
Operating profit margin is -167.76% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
150%
Effective Tax Rate:
9.02%
Effective tax rate is -67.69% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -111.70% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.42%
Return on assets (ROA) is -155.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.39
Current ratio is -37.50% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
75.6
Cash conversion cycle is 20.79% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 18.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
247.8K
Each employee generates -55% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
11.3K
Each employee generates -85% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 11.7K
Each employee generates -147% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.0K
-
Assets/Capital per employee
347.9K
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -5.81%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 151.12% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CMTL
SMTX
EBANG INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:EBON)
ALLOT LTD (XNAS:ALLT)
VERITONE, INC. (XNAS:VERI)
CLEANSPARK, INC. (XNAS:CLSK)
AMERICAN SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:AMSWA)
RIMINI STREET, INC. (XNAS:RMNI)
BIT DIGITAL, INC. (XNAS:BTBT)
BRIGHTCOVE INC. (XNAS:BCOV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
505.07M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
315.75M
189.31M
51.14M
-
113.49M
-
10.70M
175.33M
-
5.66M
43.49M
22.99M
- 22005.00K
- 23807.00K
- 26042.00K
- 2348.00K
- 23807.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.35M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
10.93M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
16.12M
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.23M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/31/21
2022
Q1
30.92M
-
30.92M
136.82M
87.70M
18.53M
273.97M
87.23M
347.69M
263.35M
-
-
10.76M
709.02M
-
982.99M
34.44M
9.21M
-
62.61M
90.75M
197.01M
151.72M
17.14M
199.95M
-
396.96M
4.14M
319.05M
-
162.60M
January 31, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
491.09M
586.03M
982.99M
-
160.93M
130.0M
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 1632.00K
-
-
-
-
-
0.03K
-
-
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CMTL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.42
$13.85
$15.45
$17.22
$19.21