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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Commvault Systems, Inc. (XNAS:CVLT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CVLT
Name:
COMMVAULT SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CVLT)
Sector:
35.77M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Sanjay Mirchandani
Total Employees:
2,848
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -102.73% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COMMVAULT SYSTEMS, INC.(CVLT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
52.54
One Month Price Target:
$52.69
Six Month Price Target :
$53.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$54.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$52.34
Price Upper limit ($) :
$52.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$49.82
This week:
$46.45
This month :
$40.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.30B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
44.81M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.41%
-19.36%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.17
$59.37
$39.91
$45.71
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$57.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.24
$47.58
$48.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CVLT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.61%
Comparison:
CVLT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 67.43% higher than the industry
& is -29.20% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CVLT
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
1.00%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 20.64% above industry average
Classification:
CVLT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
CVLT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.55%
Weekly Volatility:
5.70%
Monthly Volatility:
11.39%
Yearly Volatility:
39.46%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.08%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.18%
Weekly VaR:
-11.58%
Monthly VaR:
-23.17%
How Much Can the price of
CVLT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.26%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.08
This translates to price declining to:
$10.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CVLT is a 63.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.09% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.15% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CVLT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.52
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.836
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.182
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.5
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.812
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.513
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.348
Beta is -61.74% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -61.39% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.80%
Sustainable growth rate is -68.49% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.053
Alpha is -324.73% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 338% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CVLT
Equity cost of capital:
0.067
Equity cost of capital is -45.66% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.48%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.50%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.40%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.40%
WACC is -27.95% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$17.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.64
Annual revenue growth rate is -99.74% below industry average
EPS:
$0.71
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
103.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 276.83% higher than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.76
-
-
Debt per share
$0.32
EBITDA per share
$1.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
CVLT
P/E Ratio:
105.09
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
232.77
P/E ratio is -54.85% lower than main peers & is -40.83% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $126.09
CVLT is -58.33% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.06
Price to sales ratio is -73.33% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.64
Price to free cash flow: 13.98
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-51.50%
Net income growth rate is -121.09% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-95.20%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-40.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
499.75
Interest coverage ratio is 840.77% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.564
Statistical significance of correlation:
CVLT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 12.09% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0
Kurtosis
10.493
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.246
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CVLT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
341%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.40%
Operating profit margin is -128.19% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
341%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.55%
Effective tax rate is -14.51% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.48%
Return on equity (ROE) is -172.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is -204.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.56
Current ratio is -47.91% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
102.2
Cash conversion cycle is 7.83% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
64.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
270.2K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
19.1K
Each employee generates 78% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
11.8K
Each employee generates -168% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.6K
Each employee generates -262% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
104.5K
Each employee generates -262% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 21.25%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1290.01% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CVLT
MANTECH INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MANT)
RAMBUS INC. (XNAS:RMBS)
SABRE CORPORATION (XNAS:SABR)
MOMENTIVE GLOBAL INC. (XNAS:MNTV)
ITRON, INC. (XNAS:ITRI)
SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:SIMO)
KINGSOFT CLOUD HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:KC)
Rackspace Technology, Inc. (XNAS:RXT)
ACV AUCTIONS INC. (XNAS:ACVA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
769.59M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
113.86M
655.73M
153.62M
103.05M
444.69M
341.64M
9.67M
607.97M
656.00K
109.00K
10.95M
54.47M
41.57M
33.62M
43.41M
9.79M
33.62M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.59M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
21.81M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5256.00K
Accounts Receivables:
34.05M
Other Working Capital:
- 5425.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.17M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
37.21M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1442.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
359.15M
-
359.15M
158.86M
-
23.87M
541.88M
131.44M
112.44M
-
-
-
53.63M
297.51M
-
839.39M
136.00K
7.26M
-
252.74M
87.14M
347.28M
14.35M
1.54M
137.57M
-
484.85M
459.00K
- 730883.00K
- 10941.0K
1.10B
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
721.83M
354.54M
839.39M
-
21.61M
- 337535.0K
-
-
- 1442.00K
-
-
- 90048.00K
-
15.44M
- 74613.00K
756.00K
- 38088.00K
359.15M
397.24M
37.21M
- 1442.00K
35.77M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CVLT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$54.63
$161.16
$166.74
$172.52
$178.50