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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:CTBI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CTBI
Name:
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
Sector:
26.28M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Ms. Jean Hale
Total Employees:
974
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1274.53% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC.(CTBI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
42.03
One Month Price Target:
$42.21
Six Month Price Target :
$43.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$44.14
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.87
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.97
This week:
$37.43
This month :
$32.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
745.41M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
17.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.%
-12.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.59
$47.23
$32.47
$36.83
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$45.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.88
$38.24
$39.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CTBI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.34%
Comparison:
CTBI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -72.66% lower than the industry
& is -85.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CTBI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.08%
Monthly returns:
0.34%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -62.86% below industry average
Classification:
CTBI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.79
Statistical test of Returns:
CTBI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.39%
Weekly Volatility:
5.35%
Monthly Volatility:
10.70%
Yearly Volatility:
37.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -51.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.90%
Weekly VaR:
-10.95%
Monthly VaR:
-21.90%
How Much Can the price of
CTBI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-75.87%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.97
This translates to price declining to:
$10.14
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CTBI is a 54.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 32.42% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.24% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CTBI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.75
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.645
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.912
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.686
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.497
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.899
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.826
Beta is -9.73% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -22.63% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.77%
Sustainable growth rate is -3.91% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.042
Alpha is -462.46% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -268% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CTBI
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -15.32% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
20.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
16.26%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
16.26%
WACC is -27.22% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -51.12% below industry average
EPS:
$4.72
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -10.87% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.05
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.73%
Equity growth rate per share is -64.54% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$3.97
EBITDA per share
$6.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
CTBI
P/E Ratio:
9.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.92
P/E ratio is -50.74% lower than main peers & is -24.89% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $58.57
CTBI is -28.24% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $40.51
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.79
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.38
Price to sales ratio is -21.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.15
Price to free cash flow: 6.94
Price to free cash flow ratio is -66.48% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
47.57%
Net income growth rate is -13.63% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.48%
Dividend yeild: 3.81%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.60
Expected next dividend best case: $0.41
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.39
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.39
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.52%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.40
2021-12-14--$0.40
2021-06-14--$0.39
2022-03-14--$0.40
2021-09-14--$0.40
2021-03-12--$0.39
Dividend growth rate is -97.79% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.34%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.56
Interest coverage ratio is 932.43% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-81.99%
Annual debt growth is -25989% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.52
Statistical significance of correlation:
CTBI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 3.82% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.034
Kurtosis
7.375
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.357
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CTBI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.42%
Operating profit margin is -62.52% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.26%
Effective tax rate is -6.00% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is 7.83% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is -33.00% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.58%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
228.7K
Each employee generates -40% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
128.4K
Each employee generates -43% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
86.3K
Each employee generates -39% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
27.0K
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CTBI
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:NIC)
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
HARBORONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HONE)
SLR INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:SLRC)
GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GSBC)
ALLEGIANCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ABTX)
FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FMBH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
222.72M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
84.31M
86.59M
2.28M
-
-
177.49M
14.62M
5.05M
125.07M
-
84.05M
105.40M
21.35M
84.05M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.29M
Differed Income Tax :
307.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
484.00K
Change in Working Capital :
3.91M
Accounts Receivables:
391.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.63M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
27.35M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1072.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 176730.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
164.73M
1.50B
1.67B
15.02M
-
-
-
52.68M
65.49M
7.75M
1.51B
-
-
1.63B
7.07B
5.44B
1.31M
-
-
-
-
-
71.01M
-
71.01M
4.86B
4.79B
89.42M
399.35M
- 62985.0K
227.59M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
653.37M
5.44B
3.01B
71.01M
- 93723.0K
48.63M
- 106104.00K
- 235276.00K
- 11.00K
248.00K
-
- 7129.00K
67.55M
60.66M
-
- 147271.00K
164.49M
311.76M
27.35M
- 1072.00K
26.28M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CTBI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.36
$67.71
$71.11
$74.67
$78.41