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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:CBSH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CBSH
Name:
COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:CBSH)
Sector:
108.92M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. John Kemper
Total Employees:
4,579
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -272.42% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC.(CBSH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
68.125
One Month Price Target:
$68.43
Six Month Price Target :
$69.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$71.75
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$67.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$68.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$65.
This week:
$61.14
This month :
$54.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
119.88M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.49%
-11.62%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$82.61
$75.98
$53.64
$60.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$73.82
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.40
$62.41
$63.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CBSH
Sharpe Ratio:
1.04%
Comparison:
CBSH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -15.48% lower than the industry
& is -54.45% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CBSH
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.64%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -29.22% below industry average
Classification:
CBSH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
CBSH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.25%
Weekly Volatility:
5.02%
Monthly Volatility:
10.05%
Yearly Volatility:
34.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.79% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.58%
Weekly VaR:
-10.25%
Monthly VaR:
-20.49%
How Much Can the price of
CBSH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-70.99%
This translates to price declining to:
$56.03
This translates to price declining to:
$19.76
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CBSH is a 44.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 23.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.34% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CBSH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.641
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.906
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.789
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.489
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.729
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.393
Beta is -43.23% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -17.92% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.78%
Sustainable growth rate is 29.00% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.008
Alpha is -172.89% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -54% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CBSH
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is -12.13% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.55%
Before-tax cost of debt:
131.53%
After-tax cost of debt:
103.91%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
103.91%
WACC is -25.21% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.75
Annual revenue growth rate is -52.05% below industry average
EPS:
$4.22
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -18.52% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.77
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.15%
Equity growth rate per share is -50.56% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.08
EBITDA per share
$6.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
CBSH
P/E Ratio:
17.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.27
P/E ratio is 15.46% higher than main peers & is 42.11% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $52.36
CBSH is 30.10% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.15
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.62
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.74
Price to sales ratio is 34.30% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.75
Price to free cash flow: 18.08
Price to free cash flow ratio is -36.48% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
29.87%
Net income growth rate is -45.76% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.21%
Dividend yeild: 1.55%
Previous Dividend: $0.27
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.27
Previous Dividend: $1.05
Expected next dividend best case: $0.27
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.26
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.20%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 22/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/07/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-06--$0.27
2021-12-01--$0.26
2021-06-03--$0.26
2022-03-07--$0.27
2021-09-03--$0.25
2021-03-08--$0.26
Dividend growth rate is -99.15% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.31%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-53.31%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.03%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-4.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.98% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
60.5
Interest coverage ratio is 7199.19% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1466.08%
Annual debt growth is 462830% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.542
Statistical significance of correlation:
CBSH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 8.33% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.004
Kurtosis
7.632
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.364
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CBSH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.63%
Effective tax rate is 0.37% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.49%
Return on equity (ROE) is 46.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.48%
Return on assets (ROA) is -35.76% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 23.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.81%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
310.5K
Each employee generates -18% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
157.4K
Each employee generates -30% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
113.1K
Each employee generates -20% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
23.8K
Each employee generates -71% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.4M
Each employee generates -71% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CBSH
EVO ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:EVOJU)
MORINGA ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:MACAU)
SEI INVESTMENTS COMPANY (XNAS:SEIC)
CREDIT ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION (XNAS:CACC)
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLCP)
VCVCU
HEALTHCARE SERVICES ACQUISITION UNIT (XNAS:HCARU)
Upstart Holdings Inc (XNAS:UPST)
PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:PNFP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�33%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.42B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
653.22M
676.26M
23.04M
-
-
850.38M
11.91M
45.30M
720.70M
-
517.95M
672.92M
145.54M
517.95M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.81M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.22M
Change in Working Capital :
20.96M
Accounts Receivables:
- 7972.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 32499.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
124.51M
Investments in PP&E:
- 15597.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1812434.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.59B
14.78B
16.37B
-
-
-
-
394.03M
138.92M
15.89M
15.02B
-
-
15.57B
50.56B
34.99B
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.06M
-
9.06M
32.02B
32.01B
610.80M
178.50M
- 434400.0K
2.61B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.96B
34.97B
29.80B
9.06M
- 1578305.0K
807.10M
- 486753.00K
- 1507684.00K
-
-
- 55855.00K
- 32143.00K
- 1220196.00K
- 1308194.00K
-
- 2691364.00K
1.61B
4.30B
124.51M
- 15597.00K
108.92M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CBSH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$82.96
$87.37
$92.01
$96.90
$102.06