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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Comerica Incorporated (XNYS:CMA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CMA
Name:
COMERICA INCORPORATED (XNYS:CMA)
Sector:
- 727000.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Curtis Chatman Farmer
Total Employees:
7,223
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -88.81% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COMERICA INCORPORATED(CMA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
81.04
One Month Price Target:
$81.62
Six Month Price Target :
$84.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$87.98
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$80.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$81.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$75.48
This week:
$68.61
This month :
$56.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
130.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.98%
-20.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.82
$94.96
$55.26
$67.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$91.10
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$88.56
$70.95
$73.52
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CMA
Sharpe Ratio:
2.08%
Comparison:
CMA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 69.71% higher than the industry
& is -8.53% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CMA
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.59%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 74.35% above industry average
Classification:
CMA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
CMA has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.38%
Weekly Volatility:
7.55%
Monthly Volatility:
15.11%
Yearly Volatility:
52.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.86%
Weekly VaR:
-15.33%
Monthly VaR:
-30.67%
How Much Can the price of
CMA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.80
This translates to price declining to:
$12.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CMA is a 116.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 85.44% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 18.24% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CMA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.27
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.85
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.203
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.981
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.883
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.025
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.068
Beta is 19.40% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 32.29% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.22%
Sustainable growth rate is 11.98% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.071
Alpha is 515.55% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 455% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CMA
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is 21.86% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.14%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.59%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.59%
WACC is 0.73% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.51
Annual revenue growth rate is -68.37% below industry average
EPS:
$7.25
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.53%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -87.29% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 85.44%
Equity growth rate per share is 120.65% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$20.50
EBITDA per share
$10.94
Valuation Analysis Today of
CMA
P/E Ratio:
11.82
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.64
P/E ratio is -19.23% lower than main peers & is -4.71% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $89.96
CMA is -9.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $34.09
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $23.22
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.84
Price to sales ratio is -10.15% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.51
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
17.67%
Net income growth rate is -67.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.43%
Dividend yeild: 3.36%
Previous Dividend: $0.68
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.68
Previous Dividend: $2.72
Expected next dividend best case: $0.68
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.68
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.68
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.15%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.68
2021-12-14--$0.68
2021-06-14--$0.68
2022-03-14--$0.68
2021-09-14--$0.68
2021-03-12--$0.68
Dividend growth rate is -99.36% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
38.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-154.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.01%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.19%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.19% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
26.5
Interest coverage ratio is 3097.35% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-51.19%
Annual debt growth is -16263% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.636
Statistical significance of correlation:
CMA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 27.03% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.047
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.093
Kurtosis
7.394
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.218
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CMA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.33%
Effective tax rate is -1.02% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.31%
Return on equity (ROE) is 19.97% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.13%
Return on assets (ROA) is -50.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
382.0K
Each employee generates 1% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
198.1K
Each employee generates -12% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
139.4K
Each employee generates -1% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 100.7K
Each employee generates -221% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.8M
Each employee generates -221% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CMA
CNA FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:CNA)
SANTANDER CONSUMER USA HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:SC)
ARES MANAGEMENT CORPORATION (XNYS:ARES)
APO-PA
LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:LNC)
LUFAX HOLDING LTD (XNYS:LU)
apo MultiAsset Mandat Protect PB
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:AFG)
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:NMR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�33%
Hold�63%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.76B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
1.17B
1.21B
36.00M
-
-
1.91B
54.00M
97.00M
1.43B
-
1.01B
1.28B
273.00M
1.01B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
23.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
28.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 925000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 831000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 23000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 710000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 17000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 3605000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
13.55B
18.99B
32.54B
5.67B
-
-
-
444.00M
635.00M
11.00M
18.99B
-
-
20.08B
109.25B
89.17B
-
-
6.00M
-
-
-
2.68B
-
2.68B
84.81B
82.13B
1.14B
10.59B
- 1173000.0K
- 3911000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
7.04B
89.17B
37.98B
2.68B
- 10868000.0K
806.00M
- 381000.00K
- 3197000.00K
-
18.00M
- 39000.00K
- 95000.00K
- 5106000.00K
- 5222000.00K
-
- 9129000.00K
13.55B
22.68B
- 710000.00K
- 17000.00K
- 727000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CMA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$103.68
$112.57
$122.21
$132.68
$144.04