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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Comcast Corporation (XNAS:CMCSA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CMCSA
Name:
COMCAST CORPORATION (XNAS:CMCSA)
Sector:
5.40B
Industry:
Entertainment
CEO:
Mr. Brian Roberts
Total Employees:
189,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -13.51% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COMCAST CORPORATION(CMCSA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.76
One Month Price Target:
$35.94
Six Month Price Target :
$36.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.32
This week:
$32.55
This month :
$29.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
153.32B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
4.41B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.56%
-9.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.43
$39.40
$29.09
$32.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$38.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.77
$33.09
$33.75
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CMCSA
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.69%
Comparison:
CMCSA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -314.80% lower than the industry
& is -130.09% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CMCSA
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.09%
Yearly returns:
6.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -116.10% below industry average
Classification:
CMCSA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
CMCSA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.95%
Weekly Volatility:
4.37%
Monthly Volatility:
8.74%
Yearly Volatility:
30.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.39%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 22.25% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.02%
Weekly VaR:
-8.98%
Monthly VaR:
-17.96%
How Much Can the price of
CMCSA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-62.23%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.06
This translates to price declining to:
$13.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CMCSA is a 26.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 8.62% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -42.81% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CMCSA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.604
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.855
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.537
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.652
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.611
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.603
Beta is 51.64% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.34
Beta is -31.77% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.09%
Sustainable growth rate is -71.67% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.105
Alpha is 89.36% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -669% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CMCSA
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -23.65% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.50%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.56%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.56%
WACC is -14.73% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.67
Annual revenue growth rate is -15.39% below industry average
EPS:
$3.11
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -93.79% lower than the Entertainment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.70
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 33.37%
Equity growth rate per share is 27617.91% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$20.95
EBITDA per share
$8.62
Valuation Analysis Today of
CMCSA
P/E Ratio:
11.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.33
P/E ratio is -64.99% lower than main peers & is -56.84% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $84.07
CMCSA is -57.46% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.23
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.14
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.31
Price to sales ratio is -50.40% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.67
Price to free cash flow: 9.67
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
19.07%
Net income growth rate is -109.25% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.11%
Dividend yeild: 2.85%
Previous Dividend: $0.27
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.27
Previous Dividend: $1.02
Expected next dividend best case: $0.29
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.91%
Expected next dividend payment date: 26/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/05/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/01/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-05--$0.27
2021-10-05--$0.25
2021-04-06--$0.25
2022-01-04--$0.25
2021-07-06--$0.25
2021-01-05--$0.23
Dividend growth rate is -124.80% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
97.62%
Net debt to equity ratio:
90.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.26%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.62% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.94
Interest coverage ratio is -87.98% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.59%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.11%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.679
Statistical significance of correlation:
CMCSA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.508
Stock price is 33.62% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.508
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.01
Kurtosis
5.688
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.057
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CMCSA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
201%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.76%
Operating profit margin is 169.13% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
201%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.91%
Effective tax rate is 79.94% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.18%
Return on equity (ROE) is -70.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.25%
Return on assets (ROA) is 21.18% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.86
Current ratio is -47.71% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-80.6
Cash conversion cycle is -266.61% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.61%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
635.9K
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
201.3K
Each employee generates -42% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
76.1K
Each employee generates -34% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
28.6K
Each employee generates -81645% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates -81645% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CMCSA
NETFLIX, INC. (XNAS:NFLX)
T-MOBILE US, INC. (XNAS:TMUS)
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:CHTR)
NETEASE, INC. (XNAS:NTES)
Baidu, Inc. (XNAS:BIDU)
ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:ZM)
ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. (XNAS:ATVI)
VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:VOD)
ELECTRONIC ARTS INC. (XNAS:EA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�50%
Buy�75%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
120.19B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
29.53B
59.65B
-
27.35B
35.49B
8.14B
10.44B
45.93B
-
4.26B
13.99B
38.05B
21.35B
14.38B
19.45B
5.43B
14.38B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.55B
Differed Income Tax :
106.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
376.00M
Change in Working Capital :
265.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 4276000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 587000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.26B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
69.00M
Purchases of Investments:
- 66000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
8.88B
-
8.88B
12.30B
-
4.20B
25.38B
53.82B
69.05B
32.47B
8.29B
-
85.07B
248.69B
-
274.07B
12.71B
2.12B
-
3.02B
11.82B
29.66B
92.44B
27.42B
149.72B
-
179.38B
53.00M
61.56B
674.0M
32.41B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
98.84B
94.69B
274.07B
-
94.56B
85.7B
69.00M
- 2669000.00K
- 2597000.00K
- 104000.00K
-
- 3223000.00K
- 1166000.00K
3.00M
- 4490000.00K
- 35000.00K
136.00M
8.91B
8.78B
7.26B
- 1856000.00K
5.40B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CMCSA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.15
$63.04
$66.92
$71.03
$75.39