_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Columbus Mckinnon Corporation (XNAS:CMCO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CMCO
Name:
COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION (XNAS:CMCO)
Sector:
- 11044.00K
Industry:
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Richard Fleming
Total Employees:
3,224
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -273.93% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION(CMCO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.06
One Month Price Target:
$30.27
Six Month Price Target :
$31.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.22
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.21
This week:
$25.91
This month :
$21.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
834.73M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
28.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.02%
-17.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.67
$34.75
$21.45
$25.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$33.47
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.63
$26.64
$27.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CMCO
Sharpe Ratio:
0.07%
Comparison:
CMCO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -96.69% lower than the industry
& is -97.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CMCO
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.22%
Yearly returns:
21.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -87.58% below industry average
Classification:
CMCO, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
CMCO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.01%
Weekly Volatility:
6.73%
Monthly Volatility:
13.45%
Yearly Volatility:
46.60%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.17%
Weekly VaR:
-13.79%
Monthly VaR:
-27.58%
How Much Can the price of
CMCO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.76
This translates to price declining to:
$4.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CMCO is a 94.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 66.77% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.72% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CMCO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.763
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.079
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.877
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.708
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.95
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.119
Beta is 11.71% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.134
Beta is 10.22% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.01%
Sustainable growth rate is -77.83% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.091
Alpha is -190.04% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -579% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CMCO
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is 7.27% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.22%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.46%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.46%
WACC is -6.92% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$31.68
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -402.37% below industry average
EPS:
$1.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-18.79%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -333.36% lower than the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.24
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 49.80%
Equity growth rate per share is -47.17% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$13.94
EBITDA per share
$3.51
Valuation Analysis Today of
CMCO
P/E Ratio:
19.1
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.44
P/E ratio is -24.95% lower than main peers & is -26.07% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $26.86
CMCO is 11.90% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $12.35
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.53
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.95
Price to sales ratio is -48.00% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.19
Price to free cash flow: 24.27
Price to free cash flow ratio is 4.07% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-60.55%
Net income growth rate is -222.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.85%
Dividend yeild: 0.83%
Previous Dividend: $0.07
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.07
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Expected next dividend best case: $0.07
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.07
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.67%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.07
2021-11-04--$0.06
2021-04-30--$0.06
2022-02-10--$0.06
2021-08-05--$0.06
2021-02-04--$0.06
Dividend growth rate is -97.61% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
51.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.45%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.20% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.99
Interest coverage ratio is -81.10% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.04%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 53.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.538
Statistical significance of correlation:
CMCO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is -3.12% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.021
Kurtosis
6.505
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.065
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CMCO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
139%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.14%
Operating profit margin is -256.16% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
139%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.85%
Effective tax rate is -64.55% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is -72.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.88%
Return on assets (ROA) is -59.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.56
Current ratio is -36.65% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
34.1
Cash conversion cycle is -29.70% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 183.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.63%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
281.2K
Each employee generates -46% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
31.2K
Each employee generates -148% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
9.2K
Each employee generates -110% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.4K
Each employee generates -205% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
371.7K
Each employee generates -205% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 9.68%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -89.73% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CMCO
MARTEN TRANSPORT, LTD. (XNAS:MRTN)
PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION (XNAS:PRIM)
OMEGA FLEX, INC. (XNAS:OFLX)
Oxford Square Capital Corp. (XNAS:OXSQL)
CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:ROAD)
HEARTLAND EXPRESS, INC. (XNAS:HTLD)
ECHO ENERGY PLC (XLON:ECHO)
KFORCE INC. (XNAS:KFRC)
TRIMAS CORPORATION (XNAS:TRS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
906.56M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
590.83M
315.73M
15.35M
102.13M
201.32M
99.19M
18.65M
235.31M
-
20.13M
41.92M
100.50M
73.78M
29.66M
38.45M
8.79M
29.66M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.47M
Differed Income Tax :
- 245.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.26M
Change in Working Capital :
- 29489.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.04M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.87M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7396.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 475311.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 4137.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
88.65M
-
88.65M
123.17M
138.66M
31.70M
382.18M
99.60M
621.94M
401.86M
10.07M
1.16M
63.83M
1.20B
-
1.58B
71.57M
60.50M
-
-
113.14M
245.21M
398.80M
212.17M
610.96M
-
856.18M
284.00K
286.54M
- 57911.0K
495.54M
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
826.14M
724.45M
1.58B
-
459.30M
370.6M
2.18M
- 3166.00K
- 480433.00K
- 455040.00K
207.29M
-
- 1439.00K
622.94M
373.76M
601.00K
- 113473.00K
88.90M
202.38M
- 7396.00K
- 3648.00K
- 11044.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CMCO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.77
$32.27
$34.98
$37.91
$41.10