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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Columbia Sportswear Company (XNAS:COLM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COLM
Name:
COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY (XNAS:COLM)
Sector:
- 46673.00K
Industry:
Apparel Manufacturing
CEO:
Mr. Timothy Boyle
Total Employees:
8,325
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -115.76% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY(COLM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
70.8
One Month Price Target:
$71.15
Six Month Price Target :
$72.89
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$74.98
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$70.49
Price Upper limit ($) :
$71.1
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$67.08
This week:
$62.48
This month :
$54.15
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.33B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
62.09M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.08%
-22.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$88.09
$80.24
$53.51
$61.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$77.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$76.01
$63.90
$65.59
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COLM
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.55%
Comparison:
COLM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -39.01% lower than the industry
& is -123.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COLM
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.10%
Yearly returns:
-3.61%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -65.84% below industry average
Classification:
COLM, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
COLM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.56%
Weekly Volatility:
5.72%
Monthly Volatility:
11.44%
Yearly Volatility:
39.62%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.87%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.26%
Weekly VaR:
-11.76%
Monthly VaR:
-23.51%
How Much Can the price of
COLM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-81.46%
This translates to price declining to:
$56.03
This translates to price declining to:
$13.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COLM is a 65.97% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 42.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.83% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COLM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.591
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.836
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.771
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.831
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.694
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.389
Beta is -36.78% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.537
Beta is -42.87% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.03%
Sustainable growth rate is 11.37% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.104
Alpha is -39.85% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -662% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COLM
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -33.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.05%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.14%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.14%
WACC is -13.95% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$52.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -66.02% below industry average
EPS:
$5.55
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.05%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -83.46% lower than the Apparel Manufacturing industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.59
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 15.61%
Equity growth rate per share is -29.13% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.17
EBITDA per share
$9.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
COLM
P/E Ratio:
14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
974
P/E ratio is -98.56% lower than main peers & is -39.33% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $128.06
COLM is -44.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $376.42
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.05
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.35
Price to sales ratio is -30.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.42
Price to free cash flow: 27.38
Price to free cash flow ratio is -38.54% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
39.35%
Net income growth rate is -103.21% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.25%
Dividend yeild: 1.58%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.39%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 21/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-18--$0.30
2021-11-17--$0.26
2021-05-12--$0.26
2022-03-10--$0.30
2021-08-11--$0.26
2021-03-08--$0.26
Dividend growth rate is -80.27% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
17.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-2.52%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -79.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
827.25
Interest coverage ratio is 322.53% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.01%
Annual debt growth is -130% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.651
Statistical significance of correlation:
COLM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.577
Stock price is 12.87% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.577
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.02
Kurtosis
12.806
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.795
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COLM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
204%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.21%
Operating profit margin is 140.50% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
204%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.52%
Effective tax rate is -33.51% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is 31.62% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is 144.50% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.22
Current ratio is 40.42% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
27
Cash conversion cycle is -60.21% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.51%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
391.9K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
69.9K
Each employee generates 8% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
43.8K
Each employee generates 9% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.6K
Each employee generates -52% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
114.1K
Each employee generates -52% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
COLM
THE GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY (XNAS:GT)
LIGHT & WONDER, INC. (XNAS:LNW)
TEXAS ROADHOUSE, INC. (XNAS:TXRH)
REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC. (XNAS:REYN)
FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:FOXF)
BRP Inc. (XNAS:DOOO)
THE WENDY'S COMPANY (XNAS:WEN)
DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DRVN)
GLOBAL-E ONLINE LTD (XNAS:GLBE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�13%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.26B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.59B
1.67B
-
-
1.23B
-
- 19210.00K
1.21B
993.00K
703.00K
115.69M
581.55M
463.69M
365.05M
465.16M
100.12M
365.05M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.58M
Differed Income Tax :
2.75M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.50M
Change in Working Capital :
- 137672.00K
Accounts Receivables:
81.22M
Other Working Capital:
- 15979.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1779.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 33788.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 44877.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
435.24M
175.02M
610.26M
408.19M
714.42M
105.26M
1.84B
623.43M
68.59M
101.50M
-
89.61M
66.72M
949.85M
-
2.79B
262.26M
68.14M
6.30M
-
240.62M
571.01M
321.25M
76.82M
398.07M
-
969.08M
-
1.83B
- 9174.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.80B
1.82B
2.79B
-
389.39M
- 45854.0K
984.00K
- 12885.00K
- 56778.00K
-
-
- 217317.00K
- 19151.00K
- 1447.00K
- 237915.00K
317.00K
- 328164.00K
435.24M
763.40M
- 33788.00K
- 12885.00K
- 46673.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COLM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$75.35
$1,545.69
$1,636.89
$1,733.47
$1,835.75