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Columbia Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CLBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

CLBK

Name:

COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CLBK)

Sector:

31.99M

Industry:

Banks�Regional

CEO:

Mr. Thomas Kemly

Total Employees:

645

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

B

Technological advancement compared to industry is 25.62% higher

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC.(CLBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

21.19

One Month Price Target:

$21.22

Six Month Price Target :

$21.39

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$21.58

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$21.13

Price Upper limit ($) :

$21.27

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$20.38

                                                               This week:

$19.39

                                                        This month :

$17.58

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

2.29B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

110.50M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

8.44%

-8.84%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$24.93

$23.21

$17.45

$19.17

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$22.64

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$22.28

$19.73

$20.10

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

CLBK

Sharpe Ratio:

2.30%

Comparison:

CLBK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is 87.10% higher than the industry

& ratio is 0.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

CLBK

Daily returns:

0.05%

Weekly returns:

0.26%

Monthly returns:

1.04%

Yearly returns:

10.91%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 14.42% above industry average

Classification:

CLBK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.27

Statistical test of Returns:

CLBK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

1.88%

Weekly Volatility:

4.20%

Monthly Volatility:

8.40%

Yearly Volatility:

29.10%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

1.12%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.19% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-3.81%

Weekly VaR:

-8.51%

Monthly VaR:

-17.02%

How Much Can the price of

CLBK

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-14%

Worst case (decline):

-58.95%

This translates to price declining to:

$18.13

This translates to price declining to:

$8.70

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

CLBK is a 20.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 2.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is -34.25% below industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

CLBK

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.28

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.424

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

0.599

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.211

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.351

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.613

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.428

Beta is -80.68% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

0.964

Beta is -71.38% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

8.89%

Sustainable growth rate is -2.64% below industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

0.074

Alpha is 541.71% above industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 474% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

CLBK

Equity cost of capital:

0.050

Equity cost of capital is -48.32% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

3.86%

Before-tax cost of debt:

7.34%

After-tax cost of debt:

5.80%

Overall debt rating:

Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

5.80%

WACC is -55.83% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$2.50

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

2.27

Annual revenue growth rate is 96.43% above the industry average

EPS:

$0.88

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

21.55%

Expected future EPS growth rate is 79.27% higher than the Banks�Regional industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

-

-

-

Debt per share

$3.92

EBITDA per share

$1.52

Valuation Analysis Today of

CLBK

P/E Ratio:

25.18

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

9.83

P/E ratio is 156.18% higher than main peers & is 102.89% higher than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $10.92

CLBK is 94.05% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

-

-

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

8.47

Price to sales ratio is 98.09% above the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

2.27

-

-

Net income growth rate (3Y):

337.12%

Net income growth rate is 512.14% higher than the average industry net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Dividend History:

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

-

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

41.91%

Net debt to equity ratio:

32.62%

Debt to assets ratio:

4.68%

Net debt to assets ratio:

3.65%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.19% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

5.3

Interest coverage ratio is 539.21% more than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

-52.80%

Annual debt growth is -16772% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.442

Statistical significance of correlation:

CLBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.501

Stock price is -11.68% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.501

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

0.041

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

0.045

Kurtosis 

4.093

Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

-0.285

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

CLBK

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

-

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

10.63%

Operating profit margin is -70.32% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

-

Effective Tax Rate:

26.77%

Effective tax rate is 24.25% higher than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

8.85%

Return on equity (ROE) is -25.79% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

0.99%

Return on assets (ROA) is -57.06% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.0x

Current Ratio:

0

-

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

0

-

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

3.41%

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

428.5K

Each employee generates 13% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

261.1K

Each employee generates 16% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

141.7K

Each employee generates 0% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

49.6K

Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

3.4M

Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

-

-

Competitors/Peer firms of 

CLBK

Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (XNAS:GGAL)

BANNER CORPORATION (XNAS:BANR)

VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)

NMI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:NMIH)

B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)

PATRIA INVESTMENTS LTD. (XNAS:PAX)

VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)

BGC PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:BGCP)

HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�4%

Buy�0%

Hold�0%

Sell�0%

Strong sell�0%

Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy

Income Statement

Period:

TTM

Date:

3/31/22

Revenue:

276.40M

Cost of Revenue:

Gross Profit:

R&D Expense

General & Admin Expenses:

Selling, General & Admin Expenses

Sales and Marketing Expenses

Other Expenses :

Operating Expenses :

Cost & Expenses :

Interest Income:

Interest Expenses:

Depreciation & Amortization:

EBITDA:

Operating Income:

Other Income Expenses:

Income Before Tax:

Income Tax Expense:

Net Income:

Balance Sheet

Date:

Calendar Year:

Period:

Cash & Cash Equivalents:

Short Term Investments:

Cash & Short Term Investments:

Net Receivables:

Inventory:

Other Current Assets:

Total Current Assets:

PP&E:

Goodwill: 

Intangible Assets: 

Long Term Investments: 

Tax Assets: 

Other Non-Current Assets: 

Total Non-Current Assets: 

Other Assets: 

Total Assets: 

Accounts Payable: 

Short Term Debt:

Tax Payables:

Deferred Revenue:

Other Current Liabilities:

Total Current Liabilities:

Long Term Debt:

Other Non-Current Liabilities:

Total Non Current Liabilities:

Other Liabilities:

Total Liabilities:

Common Stock:

Retained Earnings:

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:

Other Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:

Total Investments:

Total Debt:

Net Debt:

-

-

-

116.57M

119.05M

2.47M

-

-

269.06M

31.79M

11.78M

168.39M

-

91.41M

124.83M

33.42M

91.41M

Statement of Cash Flow

Date:

Period:

3.02M

Differed Income Tax :

951.00K

Stock Based Compensation :

3.12M

Change in Working Capital :

3.32M

Accounts Receivables:

526.00K

Other Working Capital:

-

Other Non-Cash Items:

2.04M

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:

32.85M

Investments in PP&E:

- 865.00K

Net Acquisitions:

-

Purchases of Investments:

- 47397.00K

Sales/Maturities of Investments:

Other Investing Activities:

​Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:

Debt Repayment:

Common Stock Issued:

Common Stock Repurchased:

Dividend Paid:

Other Financing Activities:

Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:

Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:

Net Changes in Cash:

Cash at End of Period:

Cash at Beginning of Period:

Operating Cash Flow:

Capital Expenditure:

Free Cash Flow (FCF):

3/31/22

2022

Q1

96.00M

1.58B

1.68B

27.77M

-

-

-

77.78M

-

-

2.00B

-

-

2.17B

11.41B

9.24B

-

-

-

-

-

-

432.76M

-

432.76M

8.64B

8.20B

1.25M

791.75M

- 100355.0K

339.85M

March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM

-

1.03B

9.24B

3.58B

432.76M

336.8M

100.49M

- 119688.00K

- 67462.00K

-

-

- 21798.00K

-

81.44M

59.64M

-

25.03M

96.00M

70.96M

32.85M

- 865.00K

31.99M

Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating

Our Rating:

B

Portfolio rating_explained.png
Tech rating_explained.png
Alpha explained.png

Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of

CLBK

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

$22.85

$23.27

$23.70

$24.14

$24.59

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