Columbia Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CLBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

CLBK

Name:

COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CLBK)

Sector:

31.99M

Industry:

Banks�Regional

CEO:

Mr. Thomas Kemly

Total Employees:

645

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

Technological advancement compared to industry is 25.62% higher

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC.(CLBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

21.19

One Month Price Target:

$21.22

Six Month Price Target :

$21.39

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$21.58

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)

$21.13

Price Upper limit ($) :

$21.27

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$20.38

This week:

$19.39

This month :

$17.58

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

2.29B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

110.50M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)

Highest Daily Appreciation:

8.44%

-8.84%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$24.93

$23.21

$17.45

$19.17

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$22.64

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$22.28

$19.73

$20.10

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

CLBK

Sharpe Ratio:

2.30%

Comparison:

CLBK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is 87.10% higher than the industry

& ratio is 0.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

CLBK

Daily returns:

0.05%

Weekly returns:

0.26%

Monthly returns:

1.04%

Yearly returns:

10.91%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 14.42% above industry average

Classification:

CLBK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.27

Statistical test of Returns:

CLBK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

1.88%

Weekly Volatility:

4.20%

Monthly Volatility:

8.40%

Yearly Volatility:

29.10%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)

Average Volatility of this Week:

1.12%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.19% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-3.81%

Weekly VaR:

-8.51%

Monthly VaR:

-17.02%

How Much Can the price of

CLBK

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession:

Base case (decline):

-14%

Worst case (decline):

-58.95%

This translates to price declining to:

$18.13

This translates to price declining to:

$8.70

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

Risk Fundamentals

CLBK is a 20.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 2.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is -34.25% below industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

CLBK

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.28

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.424

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

0.599

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.211

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.351

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.613

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.428

Beta is -80.68% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta:

0.964

Beta is -71.38% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

8.89%

Sustainable growth rate is -2.64% below industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis

Alpha provided:

0.074

Alpha is 541.71% above industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 474% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

CLBK

Equity cost of capital:

0.050

Equity cost of capital is -48.32% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:

3.86%

Before-tax cost of debt:

7.34%

After-tax cost of debt:

5.80%

Overall debt rating:

Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

5.80%

WACC is -55.83% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$2.50

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

2.27

Annual revenue growth rate is 96.43% above the industry average

EPS:

$0.88

Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):

21.55%

Expected future EPS growth rate is 79.27% higher than the Banks�Regional industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

Debt per share

$3.92

EBITDA per share

$1.52

Valuation Analysis Today of

CLBK

P/E Ratio:

25.18

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

9.83

P/E ratio is 156.18% higher than main peers & is 102.89% higher than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $10.92

CLBK is 94.05% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

8.47

Price to sales ratio is 98.09% above the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

2.27

Net income growth rate (3Y):

337.12%

Net income growth rate is 512.14% higher than the average industry net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

Dividend History:

--$0.00

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

41.91%

Net debt to equity ratio:

32.62%

Debt to assets ratio:

4.68%

Net debt to assets ratio:

3.65%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.19% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

5.3

Interest coverage ratio is 539.21% more than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

-52.80%

Annual debt growth is -16772% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.442

Statistical significance of correlation:

CLBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of the industry with the market:

0.501

Stock price is -11.68% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):

0.501

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

0.041

Covariance of price movement with the market:

0.045

Kurtosis

4.093

Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

-0.285

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

CLBK

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

10.63%

Operating profit margin is -70.32% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

Effective Tax Rate:

26.77%

Effective tax rate is 24.25% higher than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

ROA

8.85%

Return on equity (ROE) is -25.79% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

0.99%

Return on assets (ROA) is -57.06% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.0x

Current Ratio:

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

3.41%

In-depth Efficiency Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

428.5K

Each employee generates 13% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee:

261.1K

Each employee generates 16% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee:

141.7K

Each employee generates 0% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:

49.6K

Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

3.4M

Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

Competitors/Peer firms of

CLBK

Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (XNAS:GGAL)

BANNER CORPORATION (XNAS:BANR)

VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)

NMI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:NMIH)

B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)

PATRIA INVESTMENTS LTD. (XNAS:PAX)

VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)

BGC PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:BGCP)

HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�4%

Buy�0%

RISK CONCERN

​Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals

Columbia Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CLBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Other Primary facts

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

CLBK

Average Returns/Yield of

CLBK

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

How Much Can the price of

CLBK

Decline in a Recession?

Severe Crash Probability

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

Risk Fundamentals

Beta Examination of

CLBK

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

CLBK

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Valuation Analysis Today of

CLBK

Dividend Analysis

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Analysis of Key Statistics

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

CLBK

In-depth Efficiency Analysis

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

Competitors/Peer firms of

CLBK

Current Analyst Ratings

Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals