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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Columbia Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CLBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CLBK
Name:
COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CLBK)
Sector:
31.99M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Kemly
Total Employees:
645
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 25.62% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC.(CLBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.19
One Month Price Target:
$21.22
Six Month Price Target :
$21.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.38
This week:
$19.39
This month :
$17.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.29B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
110.50M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.44%
-8.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.93
$23.21
$17.45
$19.17
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$22.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.28
$19.73
$20.10
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CLBK
Sharpe Ratio:
2.30%
Comparison:
CLBK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 87.10% higher than the industry
& ratio is 0.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CLBK
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.04%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 14.42% above industry average
Classification:
CLBK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.27
Statistical test of Returns:
CLBK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.88%
Weekly Volatility:
4.20%
Monthly Volatility:
8.40%
Yearly Volatility:
29.10%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.19% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.81%
Weekly VaR:
-8.51%
Monthly VaR:
-17.02%
How Much Can the price of
CLBK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-58.95%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.13
This translates to price declining to:
$8.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CLBK is a 20.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 2.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -34.25% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CLBK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.424
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.599
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.211
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.351
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.613
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.428
Beta is -80.68% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -71.38% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.89%
Sustainable growth rate is -2.64% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.074
Alpha is 541.71% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 474% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CLBK
Equity cost of capital:
0.050
Equity cost of capital is -48.32% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.86%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.80%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.80%
WACC is -55.83% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.27
Annual revenue growth rate is 96.43% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 79.27% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$3.92
EBITDA per share
$1.52
Valuation Analysis Today of
CLBK
P/E Ratio:
25.18
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.83
P/E ratio is 156.18% higher than main peers & is 102.89% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $10.92
CLBK is 94.05% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.47
Price to sales ratio is 98.09% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.27
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
337.12%
Net income growth rate is 512.14% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
41.91%
Net debt to equity ratio:
32.62%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.68%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.19% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.3
Interest coverage ratio is 539.21% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-52.80%
Annual debt growth is -16772% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.442
Statistical significance of correlation:
CLBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -11.68% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
4.093
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.285
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CLBK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.63%
Operating profit margin is -70.32% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
26.77%
Effective tax rate is 24.25% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.85%
Return on equity (ROE) is -25.79% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is -57.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.41%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
428.5K
Each employee generates 13% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
261.1K
Each employee generates 16% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
141.7K
Each employee generates 0% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
49.6K
Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.4M
Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CLBK
Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (XNAS:GGAL)
BANNER CORPORATION (XNAS:BANR)
VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)
NMI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:NMIH)
B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)
PATRIA INVESTMENTS LTD. (XNAS:PAX)
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)
BGC PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:BGCP)
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
276.40M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
116.57M
119.05M
2.47M
-
-
269.06M
31.79M
11.78M
168.39M
-
91.41M
124.83M
33.42M
91.41M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.02M
Differed Income Tax :
951.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.12M
Change in Working Capital :
3.32M
Accounts Receivables:
526.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.04M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
32.85M
Investments in PP&E:
- 865.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 47397.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
96.00M
1.58B
1.68B
27.77M
-
-
-
77.78M
-
-
2.00B
-
-
2.17B
11.41B
9.24B
-
-
-
-
-
-
432.76M
-
432.76M
8.64B
8.20B
1.25M
791.75M
- 100355.0K
339.85M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.03B
9.24B
3.58B
432.76M
336.8M
100.49M
- 119688.00K
- 67462.00K
-
-
- 21798.00K
-
81.44M
59.64M
-
25.03M
96.00M
70.96M
32.85M
- 865.00K
31.99M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CLBK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$22.85
$23.27
$23.70
$24.14
$24.59