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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Columbia Banking System, Inc. (XNAS:COLB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COLB
Name:
COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:COLB)
Sector:
60.56M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Clint Stein
Total Employees:
2,260
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -273.82% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC.(COLB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.41
One Month Price Target:
$29.52
Six Month Price Target :
$30.05
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.69
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.55
This week:
$25.26
This month :
$21.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.26B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
78.65M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.91%
-14.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.03
$34.11
$20.79
$24.71
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.99
$25.98
$26.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COLB
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.11%
Comparison:
COLB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -108.87% lower than the industry
& is -104.78% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COLB
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.11%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -87.91% below industry average
Classification:
COLB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
COLB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.08%
Weekly Volatility:
6.88%
Monthly Volatility:
13.76%
Yearly Volatility:
47.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.87%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.57% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.31%
Weekly VaR:
-14.11%
Monthly VaR:
-28.22%
How Much Can the price of
COLB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.09
This translates to price declining to:
$4.41
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COLB is a 99.21% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 70.66% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.67% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COLB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.65
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.55
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.778
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.639
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.549
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.855
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.931
Beta is -30.69% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -33.05% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.73%
Sustainable growth rate is -48.18% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.063
Alpha is -638.76% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -398% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COLB
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is -22.37% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.50%
Before-tax cost of debt:
31.04%
After-tax cost of debt:
24.52%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
24.52%
WACC is -33.92% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -93.22% below industry average
EPS:
$2.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.23%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -89.78% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.85
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -6.55%
Equity growth rate per share is -116.92% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.35
EBITDA per share
$3.88
Valuation Analysis Today of
COLB
P/E Ratio:
10.57
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.49
P/E ratio is -15.34% lower than main peers & is -14.81% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $34.74
COLB is -15.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $38.08
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.07
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.59
Price to sales ratio is -16.12% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.98
Price to free cash flow: 10.32
Price to free cash flow ratio is -47.03% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
9.17%
Net income growth rate is -83.34% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.49%
Dividend yeild: 4.01%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.18
Expected next dividend best case: $0.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.30%
Expected next dividend payment date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/02/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-03--$0.30
2021-10-12--$0.30
2021-05-11--$0.28
2022-02-01--$0.30
2021-08-10--$0.28
2021-02-09--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -94.48% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-40.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-4.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.92% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
35.53
Interest coverage ratio is 4187.34% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-34.91%
Annual debt growth is -11122% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.477
Statistical significance of correlation:
COLB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -4.79% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
5.648
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.378
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COLB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.39%
Effective tax rate is -0.71% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.83%
Return on equity (ROE) is -25.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is -56.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.82%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
285.3K
Each employee generates -25% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
135.0K
Each employee generates -40% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
92.3K
Each employee generates -35% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
26.8K
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.9M
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
COLB
Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (XNAS:GGAL)
INTERNATIONAL BANCSHARES CORPORATION (XNAS:IBOC)
FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:FIBK)
Calamos Strat Tot Ret (XNAS:CSQ)
FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:FULT)
TRIUMPH BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBK)
GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, INC. (XNAS:GBDC)
OPEN LENDING CORPORATION (XNAS:LPRO)
CVB FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:CVBF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
644.83M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
270.75M
274.10M
3.35M
-
-
558.31M
8.58M
31.17M
304.99M
-
208.49M
265.24M
56.75M
208.49M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.44M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 4826.00K
Accounts Receivables:
79.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3550.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
62.38M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1817.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 281502.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
972.48M
5.53B
6.50B
55.94M
-
-
-
170.06M
823.17M
32.36M
7.74B
-
-
8.77B
29.73B
20.96B
-
-
-
-
-
-
27.66M
-
27.66M
18.63B
18.60B
1.93B
728.31M
- 227777.0K
- 70834.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.36B
20.96B
13.27B
27.66M
- 944821.0K
260.59M
- 112505.00K
- 135233.00K
- 20.00K
-
- 3924.00K
- 23955.00K
248.52M
220.62M
-
147.76M
972.48M
824.71M
62.38M
- 1817.00K
60.56M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COLB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$35.52
$37.06
$38.67
$40.34
$42.09