_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (XNAS:COLL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COLL
Name:
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (XNAS:COLL)
Sector:
- 25423.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Ciaffoni
Total Employees:
152
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1285.59% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COLLEGIUM PHARMACEUTICAL, INC.(COLL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.87
One Month Price Target:
$17.95
Six Month Price Target :
$18.38
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.89
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.61
This week:
$15.04
This month :
$12.22
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
574.34M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
34.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.37%
-17.31%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.74
$21.05
$12.00
$14.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$20.18
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.61
$15.55
$16.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COLL
Sharpe Ratio:
0.90%
Comparison:
COLL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -0.84% lower than the industry
& is -60.35% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COLL
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.20%
Monthly returns:
0.80%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -32.14% below industry average
Classification:
COLL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
COLL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.46%
Weekly Volatility:
7.75%
Monthly Volatility:
15.49%
Yearly Volatility:
53.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.07%
Weekly VaR:
-15.82%
Monthly VaR:
-31.64%
How Much Can the price of
COLL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.95
This translates to price declining to:
$2.68
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COLL is a 123.30% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 91.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COLL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.85
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.578
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.818
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.26
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.58
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.856
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.272
Beta is -33.39% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is -19.62% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
48.13%
Sustainable growth rate is 49.26% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.007
Alpha is -82.14% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 44% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COLL
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is -13.66% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-2.75%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.72%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.15%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.15%
WACC is -38.32% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.11
Annual revenue growth rate is -104.02% below industry average
EPS:
$0.92
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.62
-
-
Debt per share
$19.82
EBITDA per share
$1.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
COLL
P/E Ratio:
20.01
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
512.86
P/E ratio is -96.10% lower than main peers & is -49.92% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $36.76
COLL is -51.39% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.23
Price to sales ratio is -68.43% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.11
Price to free cash flow: 11.00
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-270.27%
Net income growth rate is -50.67% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
345.02%
Net debt to equity ratio:
342.20%
Debt to assets ratio:
54.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
53.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 5.33% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.73
Interest coverage ratio is -60.66% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.36
Statistical significance of correlation:
COLL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is -11.92% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.034
Kurtosis
8.091
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.575
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COLL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
172%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-4.98%
Operating profit margin is -85.20% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
172%
Effective Tax Rate:
223.34%
Effective tax rate is 1615.30% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -319.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.43%
Return on assets (ROA) is -192.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
0.97
Current ratio is -70.46% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
151.9
Cash conversion cycle is 0.41% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
14.34%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 114% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
380.0K
Each employee generates 301% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
281.5K
Each employee generates 174% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 167.3K
Each employee generates 192% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.8M
Each employee generates 192% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -3.28%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -150.04% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
COLL
IMAGO BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:IMGO)
CUTERA, INC. (XNAS:CUTR)
ABSCI CORPORATION (XNAS:ABSI)
BLUEBIRD BIO, INC. (XNAS:BLUE)
CAREMAX, INC. (XNAS:CMAX)
Precigen, Inc. (XNAS:PGEN)
Surmodics, Inc. (XNAS:SRDX)
EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:EGRX)
CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:CPRX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
272.90M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
129.38M
143.52M
10.50M
-
142.01M
-
-
152.52M
13.00K
21.12M
71.32M
57.76M
- 13579.00K
42.79M
- 34690.00K
- 77476.00K
42.79M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
19.64M
Differed Income Tax :
- 6038.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.14M
Change in Working Capital :
- 33052.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 5006.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.07M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 25315.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 108.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 572069.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
106.70M
-
106.70M
166.35M
80.15M
10.45M
363.64M
28.01M
131.51M
694.80M
-
25.55M
2.62M
882.50M
-
1.25B
3.85M
101.18M
5.15M
-
268.54M
373.57M
676.49M
-
676.49M
-
1.05B
36.00K
- 269411.00K
-
465.45M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
281.90M
196.08M
1.25B
-
777.67M
671.0M
-
-
- 572177.00K
-
-
-
-
517.76M
517.76M
-
- 79728.00K
109.25M
188.97M
- 25315.00K
- 108.00K
- 25423.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COLL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.98
$142.02
$150.10
$158.64
$167.68