_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Colgate-Palmolive Company (XNYS:CL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CL
Name:
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY (XNYS:CL)
Sector:
264.00M
Industry:
Household & Personal Products
CEO:
Mr. Noel Wallace
Total Employees:
33,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -49.79% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY(CL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
78.17
One Month Price Target:
$78.37
Six Month Price Target :
$79.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$80.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$78.
Price Upper limit ($) :
$78.39
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$75.79
This week:
$72.84
This month :
$67.51
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
64.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
834.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.61%
-9.78%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$89.23
$84.14
$67.11
$72.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$82.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$81.40
$73.84
$74.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CL
Sharpe Ratio:
1.59%
Comparison:
CL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 31.92% higher than the industry
& is -30.45% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CL
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.65%
Yearly returns:
9.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -15.33% below industry average
Classification:
CL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.85
Statistical test of Returns:
CL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.50%
Weekly Volatility:
3.36%
Monthly Volatility:
6.71%
Yearly Volatility:
23.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 16.00% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.05%
Weekly VaR:
-6.82%
Monthly VaR:
-13.64%
How Much Can the price of
CL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-12%
Worst case (decline):
-47.24%
This translates to price declining to:
$69.04
This translates to price declining to:
$41.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CL is -3.76% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -17.55% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.27% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.566
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.801
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.025
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.391
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.501
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.753
Beta is -38.09% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.835
Beta is -44.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
135.04%
Sustainable growth rate is 365.55% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.015
Alpha is 292.18% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 95% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CL
Equity cost of capital:
0.063
Equity cost of capital is -28.51% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-0.35%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.28%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.28%
WACC is -49.39% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
89.56
Annual revenue growth rate is -20.24% below industry average
EPS:
$2.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-2.60%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -104.96% lower than the Household & Personal Products industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.94
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 8.73%
Equity growth rate per share is -14.15% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$9.10
EBITDA per share
$3.94
Valuation Analysis Today of
CL
P/E Ratio:
33.92
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.21
P/E ratio is 34.53% higher than main peers & is 28.25% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $63.73
CL is 22.66% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $53.45
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $33.75
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.73
Price to sales ratio is 2.42% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
89.56
Price to free cash flow: 26.60
Price to free cash flow ratio is -26.15% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-7.02%
Net income growth rate is -100.27% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 18.49%
Dividend yeild: 2.33%
Previous Dividend: $0.47
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.47
Previous Dividend: $1.82
Expected next dividend best case: $0.48
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.46
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.44
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.90%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 20/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 21/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-20--$0.47
2021-10-20--$0.45
2021-04-20--$0.45
2022-01-21--$0.45
2021-07-20--$0.45
2021-01-22--$0.44
Dividend growth rate is -108.26% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2363.86%
Net debt to equity ratio:
2096.57%
Debt to assets ratio:
48.26%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.80%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -29.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-121.7
Interest coverage ratio is -963.42% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.64%
Annual debt growth is -110% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.588
Statistical significance of correlation:
CL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 5.72% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.004
Kurtosis
13.701
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.64
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
236%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
18.24%
Operating profit margin is -325.46% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
236%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.34%
Effective tax rate is 14.50% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
636.76%
Return on equity (ROE) is 1345.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is 219.91% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
1.09
Current ratio is -59.47% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-27.8
Cash conversion cycle is -126.38% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
517.0K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
97.2K
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
60.5K
Each employee generates -29% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.8K
Each employee generates 220% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
317.6K
Each employee generates 220% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CL
DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION (XNYS:DG)
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC. (XNAS:KDP)
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO P.L.C. (XNYS:BTI)
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (XNYS:KMB)
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
GENERAL MILLS, INC. (XNYS:GIS)
SYSCO CORPORATION (XNYS:SYY)
Ambev SA (XNYS:ABEV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�71%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
17.48B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.17B
10.31B
-
-
6.44B
-
110.00M
6.55B
-
- 27000.00K
557.00M
3.29B
3.19B
2.04B
2.93B
712.00M
2.04B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
138.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 7000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
29.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 458000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 18000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
81.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
386.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 36000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
877.00M
-
877.00M
1.53B
1.92B
656.00M
4.99B
3.75B
3.29B
2.42B
-
193.00M
1.08B
10.73B
-
15.72B
1.58B
19.00M
473.00M
-
2.97B
4.57B
7.59B
2.46B
10.43B
-
15.00B
1.47B
24.15B
- 4248000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
13.72B
321.00M
15.32B
-
7.61B
6.7B
14.00M
- 119000.00K
- 141000.00K
-
-
- 410000.00K
- 378000.00K
584.00M
- 204000.00K
4.00M
45.00M
877.00M
832.00M
386.00M
- 122000.00K
264.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$85.08
$87.75
$90.49
$93.33
$96.25