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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cohu, Inc. (XNAS:COHU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COHU
Name:
COHU, INC. (XNAS:COHU)
Sector:
- 678.00K
Industry:
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
CEO:
Mr. Luis Muller
Total Employees:
3,240
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -240.15% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COHU, INC.(COHU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.69
One Month Price Target:
$26.92
Six Month Price Target :
$28.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$24.51
This week:
$21.82
This month :
$16.94
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.29B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
48.23M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.17%
-25.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.80
$32.13
$16.58
$21.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.61
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.61
$22.76
$23.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COHU
Sharpe Ratio:
2.95%
Comparison:
COHU, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 6.28% higher than the industry
& ratio is 29.35% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COHU
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.64%
Monthly returns:
2.56%
Yearly returns:
28.31%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 8.47% above industry average
Classification:
COHU, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
COHU has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.04%
Weekly Volatility:
9.03%
Monthly Volatility:
18.07%
Yearly Volatility:
62.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.01%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -50.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.17%
Weekly VaR:
-18.27%
Monthly VaR:
-36.53%
How Much Can the price of
COHU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.46
This translates to price declining to:
$4.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COHU is a 157.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 120.88% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.85% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COHU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.53
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.818
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.157
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.37
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.442
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.027
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.242
Beta is 23.43% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is 9.93% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.08%
Sustainable growth rate is 5.23% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.171
Alpha is 9.29% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1086% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COHU
Equity cost of capital:
0.136
Equity cost of capital is 7.47% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.93%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.93%
WACC is 17.74% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$17.82
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.45
Annual revenue growth rate is -13.86% below industry average
EPS:
$3.26
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.87
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -522.51% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.57
EBITDA per share
$5.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
COHU
P/E Ratio:
13.86
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
45.5
P/E ratio is -69.54% lower than main peers & is -51.70% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $93.56
COHU is -71.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $19.21
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.88
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.5
Price to sales ratio is -76.60% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.45
Price to free cash flow: 14.29
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-494.75%
Net income growth rate is -172.33% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.45%
Previous Dividend: $0.06
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.06
Previous Dividend: $0.12
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 04/09/2020
Previous dividend record date: 25/02/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/11/2020
Dividend History:
2020-02-24--$0.06
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-14--$0.06
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-15.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.95%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-11.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -80.02% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
50.12
Interest coverage ratio is 157.65% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.85%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.63
Statistical significance of correlation:
COHU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 4.33% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.02
Kurtosis
5.427
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.284
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COHU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
175%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.51%
Operating profit margin is -601.50% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
175%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.67%
Effective tax rate is 12.83% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is 27.91% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.97%
Return on assets (ROA) is 50.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
4.26
Current ratio is -2.87% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
46.1
Cash conversion cycle is -20.79% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.12%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
265.3K
Each employee generates -55% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
74.5K
Each employee generates -56% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
49.8K
Each employee generates -54% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.2K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
151.6K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 6.75%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -71.50% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
COHU
Docebo Inc. (XNAS:DCBO)
QADA
CANADIAN SOLAR INC (XNAS:CSIQ)
Sapiens International Corporation N.V. (XNAS:SPNS)
CAMTEK LTD (XNAS:CAMT)
API
GOPRO, INC (XNAS:GPRO)
RADWARE LTD. (XNAS:RDWR)
REPAY HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:RPAY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
859.48M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
483.57M
375.91M
91.92M
-
125.58M
-
34.71M
252.20M
300.00K
4.82M
47.67M
241.51M
193.48M
161.29M
189.03M
27.74M
161.29M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.67M
Differed Income Tax :
397.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.42M
Change in Working Capital :
- 35840.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 19873.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 11099.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
776.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.99M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2669.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 45413.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/26/22
2022
Q1
267.07M
91.50M
358.57M
210.74M
160.36M
22.48M
752.16M
88.78M
216.23M
166.74M
-
-
19.43M
491.19M
-
1.24B
85.63M
6.36M
8.85M
24.28M
60.20M
176.47M
123.74M
32.34M
179.98M
-
356.45M
49.03M
215.12M
- 36574.0K
659.32M
March 26, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
735.77M
886.90M
1.24B
-
130.10M
- 136969.0K
43.25M
57.00K
- 4775.00K
- 9100.00K
-
- 10031.00K
-
-
- 19131.00K
- 1218.00K
- 23133.00K
267.07M
290.20M
1.99M
- 2669.00K
- 678.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COHU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.59
$73.66
$81.24
$89.61
$98.84