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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Coherus Biosciences, Inc. (XNAS:CHRS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CHRS
Name:
COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CHRS)
Sector:
- 54660.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Dennis Lanfear
Total Employees:
368
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -40.56% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC.(CHRS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.2
One Month Price Target:
$10.26
Six Month Price Target :
$10.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.14
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.45
This week:
$8.53
This month :
$6.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
781.13M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
77.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.27%
-15.18%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.67
$12.10
$6.73
$8.30
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.25
$8.81
$9.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CHRS
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.78%
Comparison:
CHRS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -140.28% lower than the industry
& is -134.37% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CHRS
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.10%
Monthly returns:
-0.38%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -118.09% below industry average
Classification:
CHRS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
CHRS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.56%
Weekly Volatility:
7.95%
Monthly Volatility:
15.91%
Yearly Volatility:
55.10%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.25%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -8.72% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.32%
Weekly VaR:
-16.38%
Monthly VaR:
-32.75%
How Much Can the price of
CHRS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.22
This translates to price declining to:
$1.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CHRS is a 131.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.03% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -25.19% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CHRS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.07
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.675
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.955
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.022
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.801
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.412
Beta is -24.02% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -6.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.151
Alpha is -206.18% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -959% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CHRS
Equity cost of capital:
0.105
Equity cost of capital is -4.90% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.11%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.82%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.82%
WACC is -29.62% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.91
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
63.11
-
EPS:
-$2.72
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.49
EBITDA per share
-$2.32
Valuation Analysis Today of
CHRS
P/E Ratio:
8.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.8
P/E ratio is -57.28% lower than main peers & is -90.10% lower than the industry
-
CHRS is -104.18% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.61
Price to sales ratio is -93.55% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
63.11
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.88%
Net income growth rate is -81.75% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3398.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
833.11%
Debt to assets ratio:
71.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
17.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 70.68% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-6.87
Interest coverage ratio is -94.19% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.65%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 30.88%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.495
Statistical significance of correlation:
CHRS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 45.44% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.013
Kurtosis
2.75
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.37
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CHRS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
323%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-58.43%
Operating profit margin is -86.37% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
323%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-1673.46%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2818.82% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-35.43%
Return on assets (ROA) is 73.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.6x
Current Ratio:
3.33
Current ratio is -58.83% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
180.8
Cash conversion cycle is -66.08% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.13%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
825.1K
Each employee generates -49% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 490.7K
Each employee generates -227% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 571.3K
Each employee generates -546% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 148.5K
Each employee generates -201% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
220.0K
Each employee generates -201% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 154.35%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -4402.20% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CHRS
ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ATEC)
PULMONX CORPORATION (XNAS:LUNG)
SEER, INC. (XNAS:SEER)
RAPT THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:RAPT)
REVANCE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:RVNC)
MorphoSys AG (XNAS:MOR)
ANAVEX LIFE SCIENCES CORP. (XNAS:AVXL)
VAREX IMAGING CORPORATION (XNAS:VREX)
ORGANOGENESIS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:ORGO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�25%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
303.63M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
59.45M
244.18M
242.53M
-
179.08M
-
-
421.61M
-
26.28M
3.37M
- 180585.00K
- 177423.00K
- 210237.00K
- 210237.00K
-
- 210237.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
767.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
12.88M
Change in Working Capital :
- 17117.00K
Accounts Receivables:
5.99M
Other Working Capital:
- 7144.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
45.51M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 54045.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 615.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
325.68M
-
325.68M
117.04M
36.95M
32.78M
512.44M
8.00M
-
-
-
-
69.38M
80.94M
-
593.39M
21.09M
3.37M
-
-
129.29M
153.75M
426.97M
102.00K
427.08M
-
580.82M
7.00K
- 1145938.00K
- 272.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
481.06M
12.56M
593.39M
-
430.34M
104.7M
-
- 35000.00K
- 35615.00K
- 190750.00K
-
-
-
188.90M
- 1855.00K
-
- 91515.00K
326.12M
417.64M
- 54045.00K
- 615.00K
- 54660.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CHRS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.97
$11.77
$12.61
$13.52
$14.50