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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Coherent, Inc. (XNAS:COHR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COHR
Name:
COHERENT, INC. (XNAS:COHR)
Sector:
- 4803.00K
Industry:
Scientific & Technical Instruments
CEO:
Dr. John Ambroseo
Total Employees:
5,085
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -98.56% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COHERENT, INC.(COHR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
267.07
One Month Price Target:
$268.91
Six Month Price Target :
$278.14
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$289.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$266.06
Price Upper limit ($) :
$268.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$251.46
This week:
$232.17
This month :
$197.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.61B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.81M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.65%
-19.08%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$339.42
$305.73
$194.72
$228.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$294.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$287.56
$239.29
$246.58
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COHR
Sharpe Ratio:
4.28%
Comparison:
COHR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 215.00% higher than the industry
& ratio is 87.69% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COHR
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.67%
Monthly returns:
2.67%
Yearly returns:
11.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 189.29% above industry average
Classification:
COHR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
COHR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.91%
Weekly Volatility:
6.51%
Monthly Volatility:
13.02%
Yearly Volatility:
45.09%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.84%
Weekly VaR:
-13.07%
Monthly VaR:
-26.14%
How Much Can the price of
COHR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-90.54%
This translates to price declining to:
$209.44
This translates to price declining to:
$25.27
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COHR is a 84.47% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 58.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.65% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COHR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.23
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.745
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.054
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.688
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.717
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.909
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.508
Beta is -18.21% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.276
Beta is -3.33% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.204
Alpha is -2574.83% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1299% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COHR
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is -2.45% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.47%
Before-tax cost of debt:
142.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
112.59%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
112.59%
WACC is 25.51% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$62.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.38
Annual revenue growth rate is -232.24% below industry average
EPS:
$4.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.03
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$9.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
COHR
P/E Ratio:
57.33
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
858.31
P/E ratio is -93.32% lower than main peers & is 32.19% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $201.23
COHR is 32.72% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.3
Price to sales ratio is -11.77% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.38
Price to free cash flow: 66.29
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-143.48%
Net income growth rate is 427.13% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
105.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-42.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
51.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-20.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 8.72% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.23
Interest coverage ratio is 58.21% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
962.62%
Annual debt growth is 1124% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.477
Statistical significance of correlation:
COHR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.619
Stock price is -22.98% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.619
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.007
Kurtosis
23.389
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.566
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COHR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
164%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.56%
Operating profit margin is 9.77% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
164%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.09%
Effective tax rate is -37.42% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.27% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is 16.23% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
3.28
Current ratio is 38.98% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
56.1
Cash conversion cycle is 1.08% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
27.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
303.3K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
46.0K
Each employee generates -28% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
22.7K
Each employee generates -34% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.9K
Each employee generates -124% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
141.0K
Each employee generates -124% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 7.52%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 153.28% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
COHR
SUNRUN INC. (XNAS:RUN)
EURONET WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:EEFT)
NUTANIX, INC. (XNAS:NTNX)
HANCOCK WHITNEY CORPORATION (XNAS:HWCPZ)
The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (XNAS:DSGX)
CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD. (XNAS:CYBR)
ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC (XNAS:ALGM)
FRESHWORKS INC. (XNAS:FRSH)
Braze, Inc. (XNAS:BRZE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�29%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
1.54B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
912.23M
629.92M
125.49M
-
317.26M
-
3.79M
446.54M
448.00K
12.83M
67.30M
234.00M
178.28M
115.26M
153.86M
38.60M
115.26M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.41M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4070.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
31.91M
Change in Working Capital :
- 63916.00K
Accounts Receivables:
4.33M
Other Working Capital:
- 1805.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.49M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
12.08M
Investments in PP&E:
- 16884.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/1/22
2022
Q1
394.04M
394.04M
788.09M
243.38M
393.63M
- 293655.00K
1.13B
306.87M
103.79M
13.15M
-
-
293.16M
716.96M
-
1.85B
100.42M
9.01M
27.05M
-
235.95M
345.38M
-
605.04M
605.04M
-
950.42M
-
795.89M
- 22115.0K
897.98M
January 1, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
1.36B
897.98M
1.85B
-
9.01M
- 385039.0K
-
70.00K
- 16814.00K
- 10452.00K
6.57M
-
-
- 39868.00K
- 43754.00K
- 3765.00K
- 52252.00K
410.27M
462.52M
12.08M
- 16884.00K
- 4803.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COHR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$290.65
$1,345.91
$1,457.45
$1,578.24
$1,709.04