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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cognex Corporation (XNAS:CGNX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CGNX
Name:
COGNEX CORPORATION (XNAS:CGNX)
Sector:
44.93M
Industry:
Scientific & Technical Instruments
CEO:
Mr. Robert Willett
Total Employees:
2,257
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -81.04% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COGNEX CORPORATION(CGNX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
41.88
One Month Price Target:
$42.28
Six Month Price Target :
$44.27
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$46.66
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.68
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.41
This week:
$36.36
This month :
$30.85
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.39B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
173.40M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.32%
-13.82%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.34
$48.12
$30.42
$35.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$46.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.31
$37.32
$38.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CGNX
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.02%
Comparison:
CGNX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -101.36% lower than the industry
& is -100.81% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CGNX
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.17%
Yearly returns:
11.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -81.95% below industry average
Classification:
CGNX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.95
Statistical test of Returns:
CGNX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.87%
Weekly Volatility:
6.42%
Monthly Volatility:
12.85%
Yearly Volatility:
44.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.89%
Weekly VaR:
-13.17%
Monthly VaR:
-26.35%
How Much Can the price of
CGNX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-91.27%
This translates to price declining to:
$32.16
This translates to price declining to:
$3.66
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CGNX is a 85.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 59.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.26% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CGNX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.027
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.452
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.672
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.129
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.027
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.952
Beta is 78.42% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.276
Beta is 33.17% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -17.26% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.128
Alpha is 1451.02% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -814% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CGNX
Equity cost of capital:
0.148
Equity cost of capital is 24.38% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
14.55%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.34
Annual revenue growth rate is 59.47% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.55
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.44%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 66.40% higher than the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.39
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 32.59%
Equity growth rate per share is 998.18% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.15
EBITDA per share
$2.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
CGNX
P/E Ratio:
28.81
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
47.04
P/E ratio is -38.75% lower than main peers & is -33.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $67.22
CGNX is -37.70% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.72
Price to sales ratio is 38.00% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.34
Price to free cash flow: 30.15
Price to free cash flow ratio is 13.90% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
24.66%
Net income growth rate is -190.59% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.08%
Dividend yeild: 0.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.07
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.07
Previous Dividend: $0.26
Expected next dividend best case: $0.55
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.42
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 286.71%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$0.07
2021-11-18--$0.07
2021-05-20--$0.06
2022-03-03--$0.07
2021-08-19--$0.06
2021-02-25--$0.06
Dividend growth rate is -3910.91% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.93%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.66%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.79%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.47%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.712
Statistical significance of correlation:
CGNX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.619
Stock price is 15.00% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.619
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.04
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.068
Kurtosis
8.599
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.38
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CGNX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
288%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
29.93%
Operating profit margin is 184.17% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
288%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.38%
Effective tax rate is -61.64% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.41%
Return on equity (ROE) is 6.12% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
14.34%
Return on assets (ROA) is 167.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.45
Current ratio is 46.29% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
24.6
Cash conversion cycle is -55.71% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.43%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
478.7K
Each employee generates 49% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
154.1K
Each employee generates 140% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
122.9K
Each employee generates 256% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
19.9K
Each employee generates 401% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
558.8K
Each employee generates 401% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 3.35%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 12.93% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CGNX
JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES, INC. (XNAS:JKHY)
Open Text Corporation (XNAS:OTEX)
Weibo Corporation (XNAS:WB)
SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:SEDG)
BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:BSY)
ROBINHOOD MARKETS, INC. (XNAS:HOOD)
CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CTXS)
Logitech International SA (XNAS:LOGI)
PTC INC. (XNAS:PTC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.08B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
302.02M
778.46M
137.32M
158.25M
325.55M
455.00K
-
462.87M
-
-
20.05M
347.83M
323.38M
277.37M
327.77M
50.41M
277.37M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.96M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3891.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
15.06M
Change in Working Capital :
- 35755.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 24700.00K
Other Working Capital:
17.75M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.82M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
49.52M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4585.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 39155.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
165.77M
148.97M
314.74M
156.91M
136.66M
64.57M
672.88M
110.09M
241.18M
11.05M
479.43M
412.33M
7.16M
1.26B
-
1.93B
44.73M
8.35M
24.47M
54.46M
87.59M
195.13M
26.18M
59.23M
380.24M
-
575.37M
347.00K
488.51M
- 63565.0K
933.45M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
764.89M
1.36B
1.93B
628.40M
34.53M
- 131239.0K
112.98M
-
69.24M
-
-
- 130405.00K
- 11303.00K
3.59M
- 138114.00K
- 1031.00K
- 20392.00K
165.77M
186.16M
49.52M
- 4585.00K
44.93M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CGNX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$46.89
$68.33
$76.13
$84.82
$94.51