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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:CCOI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCOI
Name:
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CCOI)
Sector:
31.29M
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. David Schaeffer
Total Employees:
1,001
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -57.57% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC.(CCOI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.47
One Month Price Target:
$53.58
Six Month Price Target :
$54.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$54.73
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$53.68
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$50.96
This week:
$47.86
This month :
$42.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
48.01M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.52%
-10.66%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.11
$59.81
$41.83
$47.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$58.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.96
$48.84
$49.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCOI
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.14%
Comparison:
CCOI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -114.88% lower than the industry
& is -106.35% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCOI
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.11%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -92.52% below industry average
Classification:
CCOI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
CCOI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.29%
Weekly Volatility:
5.11%
Monthly Volatility:
10.22%
Yearly Volatility:
35.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.56%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -31.93% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.69%
Weekly VaR:
-10.48%
Monthly VaR:
-20.97%
How Much Can the price of
CCOI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-72.64%
This translates to price declining to:
$43.59
This translates to price declining to:
$14.63
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCOI is a 48.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 26.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -32.93% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCOI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.452
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.639
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.372
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.403
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.549
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.134
Beta is -69.02% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is -57.07% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
38.25%
Sustainable growth rate is 276.18% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.042
Alpha is -146.89% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -269% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCOI
Equity cost of capital:
0.056
Equity cost of capital is -36.55% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-5.88%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.47%
Overall debt rating:
Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.47%
WACC is -2.91% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-6.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -97.30% below industry average
EPS:
$0.65
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.90%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -68.12% lower than the Telecom Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.11
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 49.76%
Equity growth rate per share is -412.84% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$25.48
EBITDA per share
$4.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCOI
P/E Ratio:
56.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
505.64
P/E ratio is -88.81% lower than main peers & is 91.82% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $19.18
CCOI is 178.78% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $252.62
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $150.15
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.34
Price to sales ratio is -30.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-6.28
Price to free cash flow: 25.30
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
63.96%
Net income growth rate is -84.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 135.53%
Dividend yeild: 6.30%
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.88
Previous Dividend: $3.37
Expected next dividend best case: $0.95
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.81
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.76
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.24%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 29/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.88
2021-11-18--$0.83
2021-05-13--$0.78
2022-03-08--$0.86
2021-08-19--$0.81
2021-03-11--$0.76
Dividend growth rate is -197.18% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-299.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-237.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
126.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
100.17%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 65.05% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.58
Interest coverage ratio is 64.26% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.13%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.48%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.377
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCOI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is -18.30% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.026
Kurtosis
5.756
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.575
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCOI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
247%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.56%
Operating profit margin is 556.78% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
247%
Effective Tax Rate:
35.03%
Effective tax rate is 8.52% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-7.46%
Return on equity (ROE) is 94.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.14%
Return on assets (ROA) is -1824.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-3.8x
Current Ratio:
4.31
Current ratio is 167.17% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0.3
Cash conversion cycle is -99.52% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
19.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
591.6K
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
223.3K
Each employee generates -35% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
30.4K
Each employee generates -71% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
31.3K
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
574.0K
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCOI
iQIYI, Inc. (XNAS:IQ)
VEON Ltd. (XNAS:VEON)
INTEGRAL AD SCIENCE HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:IAS)
Millicom International Cellular SA (XNAS:TIGO)
LEGALZOOM.COM, INC. (XNAS:LZ)
CARGURUS, INC. (XNAS:CARG)
JOYY INC. (XNAS:YY)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILAK)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�38%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
592.19M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
226.69M
365.50M
-
-
161.57M
-
89.96M
251.53M
1.03M
86.69M
89.96M
223.54M
121.73M
30.47M
46.90M
16.43M
30.47M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
22.69M
Differed Income Tax :
- 58.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.06M
Change in Working Capital :
27.03M
Accounts Receivables:
76.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 7445.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
49.41M
Investments in PP&E:
- 18121.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
281.49M
-
281.49M
41.66M
-
72.04M
395.19M
557.33M
-
-
-
-
17.25M
574.58M
-
969.77M
13.81M
29.27M
-
-
48.53M
91.61M
1.22B
63.14M
1.29B
-
1.38B
48.00K
- 950038.00K
- 13168.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
478.22M
- 408606.00K
969.77M
-
1.25B
971.4M
-
-
- 18121.00K
- 5863.00K
-
-
- 41298.00K
- 367.00K
- 47528.00K
- 615.00K
- 16853.00K
311.77M
328.62M
49.41M
- 18121.00K
31.29M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCOI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$55.00
$135.92
$139.13
$142.42
$145.78