_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Codexis, Inc. (XNAS:CDXS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CDXS
Name:
CODEXIS, INC. (XNAS:CDXS)
Sector:
- 10397.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. John Nicols
Total Employees:
261
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -8.44% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CODEXIS, INC.(CDXS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.74
One Month Price Target:
$6.8
Six Month Price Target :
$7.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.09
This week:
$5.29
This month :
$3.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
429.64M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.49M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.2%
-44.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.75
$8.38
$3.73
$5.10
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.94
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.65
$5.54
$5.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CDXS
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.33%
Comparison:
CDXS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -116.95% lower than the industry
& is -114.46% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CDXS
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.13%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -106.25% below industry average
Classification:
CDXS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
CDXS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.68%
Weekly Volatility:
10.46%
Monthly Volatility:
20.91%
Yearly Volatility:
72.45%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.16%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.15% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.61%
Weekly VaR:
-21.49%
Monthly VaR:
-42.98%
How Much Can the price of
CDXS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.17
This translates to price declining to:
$1.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CDXS is a 203.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 159.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.63% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CDXS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.957
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.354
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.234
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.375
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.876
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.677
Beta is -6.62% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 36.00% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.155
Alpha is -208.97% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -984% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CDXS
Equity cost of capital:
0.139
Equity cost of capital is 25.73% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.07%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.07%
WACC is 22.44% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -93.08% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 62.93% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.65
EBITDA per share
-$0.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
CDXS
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
316.91
-
-
CDXS is -123.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.62
Price to sales ratio is -91.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.78
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
58.01%
Net income growth rate is -17.81% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.70%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-29.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-19.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-373.6
Interest coverage ratio is 215.69% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4665.40%
Annual debt growth is 3350% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.452
Statistical significance of correlation:
CDXS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 32.78% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.041
Kurtosis
12.601
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.032
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CDXS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
312%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-17.96%
Operating profit margin is -95.81% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
312%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.96%
Effective tax rate is -116.78% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-12.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is -77.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-8.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is -57.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
4.91
Current ratio is -39.33% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
42.4
Cash conversion cycle is -92.04% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-18.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
467.7K
Each employee generates -71% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 60.1K
Each employee generates -116% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 78.8K
Each employee generates -162% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 39.8K
Each employee generates -127% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
346.4K
Each employee generates -127% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 26.56%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -840.22% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CDXS
PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTGX)
REVOLUTION MEDICINES, INC. (XNAS:RVMD)
CNST
Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:TVTX)
CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CLDX)
VERICEL CORPORATION (XNAS:VCEL)
HESKA CORPORATION (XNAS:HSKA)
IVERIC bio, Inc. (XNAS:ISEE)
EDITAS MEDICINE, INC. (XNAS:EDIT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
122.06M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
26.51M
95.55M
63.85M
-
53.63M
-
-
117.48M
325.00K
42.00K
4.64M
- 15691.00K
- 21927.00K
- 20567.00K
- 20372.00K
195.00K
- 20567.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.42M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.84M
Change in Working Capital :
- 9083.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 11186.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5089.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
94.26M
-
94.26M
44.12M
1.56M
4.93M
144.87M
66.39M
3.24M
-
19.00M
-
1.78M
90.41M
-
235.27M
1.95M
4.93M
-
1.60M
21.02M
29.50M
42.35M
1.33M
47.14M
-
76.64M
6.00K
- 396054.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
143.99M
158.64M
235.27M
-
47.28M
- 46979.0K
-
- 4993.00K
- 10082.00K
-
-
-
-
- 1280.00K
- 1280.00K
-
- 22548.00K
96.35M
118.90M
- 11186.00K
789.00K
- 10397.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CDXS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.47
$8.26
$9.13
$10.09
$11.15