_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (XNAS:COKE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COKE
Name:
COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC. (XNAS:COKE)
Sector:
- 3621.00K
Industry:
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
CEO:
Mr. J. Frank Harrison
Total Employees:
14,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1724.11% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC.(COKE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BEVERAGES�NON-ALCOHOLIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
465.54
One Month Price Target:
$467.89
Six Month Price Target :
$479.67
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$493.79
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$463.87
Price Upper limit ($) :
$468.3
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$439.28
This week:
$406.81
This month :
$348.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.24B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
9.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.86%
-23.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$587.30
$530.72
$343.78
$400.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$512.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$500.22
$418.62
$430.86
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COKE
Sharpe Ratio:
3.86%
Comparison:
COKE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -4.30% lower than the industry
& ratio is 69.33% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COKE
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.59%
Monthly returns:
2.34%
Yearly returns:
36.41%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.83% below industry average
Classification:
COKE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.26
Statistical test of Returns:
COKE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.80%
Weekly Volatility:
6.27%
Monthly Volatility:
12.54%
Yearly Volatility:
43.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.20%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.17% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.64%
Weekly VaR:
-12.61%
Monthly VaR:
-25.23%
How Much Can the price of
COKE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-87.40%
This translates to price declining to:
$367.94
This translates to price declining to:
$58.67
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COKE is a 78.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 52.55% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.74% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COKE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.58
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.821
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.539
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.62
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.601
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.651
Beta is 38.69% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.913
Beta is -1.06% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
37.98%
Sustainable growth rate is 134.95% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.188
Alpha is -30.53% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1194% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COKE
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is -0.70% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.69%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.91%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.91%
WACC is -5.96% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$607.79
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.43
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.20% below industry average
EPS:
$23.43
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
155.45%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 687.42% higher than the Beverages�Non-Alcoholic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$32.51
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.02%
Equity growth rate per share is -100.03% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$77.63
EBITDA per share
$55.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
COKE
P/E Ratio:
15.55
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.89
P/E ratio is -32.05% lower than main peers & is -87.27% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $2,862.00
COKE is -83.73% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.05
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.71
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.77
Price to sales ratio is -87.96% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.43
Price to free cash flow: 14.32
Price to free cash flow ratio is 60.10% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1048.90%
Net income growth rate is 699.33% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.02%
Dividend yeild: 0.21%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $1.00
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.25
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 27/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend record date: 28/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-27--$0.25
2021-10-21--$0.25
2021-04-22--$0.25
2022-01-27--$0.25
2021-07-22--$0.25
2021-01-21--$0.25
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
90.54%
Net debt to equity ratio:
93.49%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -59.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.08
Interest coverage ratio is -330.39% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.85%
Annual debt growth is 52% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.476
Statistical significance of correlation:
COKE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is -11.86% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.046
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.075
Kurtosis
13.509
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.455
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COKE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.35%
Operating profit margin is -42.14% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.53%
Effective tax rate is 30.66% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.57%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.70%
Return on assets (ROA) is -40.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.15
Current ratio is -44.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
6.2
Cash conversion cycle is -93.09% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
404.1K
Each employee generates -54% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
37.0K
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
16.3K
Each employee generates -86% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.3K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
169.9K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
COKE
PRICESMART, INC. (XNAS:PSMT)
LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LAUR)
2U, INC. (XNAS:TWOU)
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (XNAS:SFM)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENT)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENTA)
J & J SNACK FOODS CORP. (XNAS:JJSF)
HOSTESS BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:TWNK)
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.70B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.68B
2.01B
-
-
1.54B
-
-
1.54B
-
32.40M
180.31M
521.04M
475.97M
229.61M
308.33M
78.72M
229.61M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
43.27M
Differed Income Tax :
33.13M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 34139.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3033.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 38138.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4769.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
130.88M
Investments in PP&E:
- 104353.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 197.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
127.09M
-
127.09M
550.68M
276.28M
75.74M
1.03B
1.22B
165.90M
871.22M
-
-
140.77M
2.40B
-
3.43B
273.70M
150.73M
8.59M
-
469.64M
894.07M
727.65M
725.20M
1.73B
-
2.62B
13.06M
815.53M
- 99648.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.22B
803.65M
3.43B
-
878.38M
751.3M
-
- 27971.00K
- 132521.00K
- 1375.00K
-
-
- 2344.00K
- 9870.00K
- 13589.00K
-
- 15229.00K
127.09M
142.31M
130.88M
- 134502.00K
- 3621.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COKE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$496.26
$937.53
$994.43
$1,054.78
$1,118.79