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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Coastal Financial Corporation (XNAS:CCB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCB
Name:
COASTAL FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:CCB)
Sector:
6.68M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Eric Sprink
Total Employees:
433
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COASTAL FINANCIAL CORPORATION(CCB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
40.22
One Month Price Target:
$40.48
Six Month Price Target :
$41.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$40.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.58
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.01
This week:
$33.05
This month :
$25.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
512.72M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
12.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.27%
-27.92%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.07
$48.13
$25.37
$32.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$45.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.39
$34.55
$36.05
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCB
Sharpe Ratio:
4.98%
Comparison:
CCB, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 305.67% higher than the industry
& ratio is 118.64% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCB
Daily returns:
0.21%
Weekly returns:
1.04%
Monthly returns:
4.14%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 355.86% above industry average
Classification:
CCB, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
CCB has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.98%
Weekly Volatility:
8.90%
Monthly Volatility:
17.80%
Yearly Volatility:
61.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.21%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.69% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.97%
Weekly VaR:
-17.82%
Monthly VaR:
-35.64%
How Much Can the price of
CCB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.50
This translates to price declining to:
$6.03
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCB is a 151.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 115.49% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 39.37% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.17
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.722
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.022
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.04
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.837
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.283
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.001
Beta is 17.19% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 21.70% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.29%
Sustainable growth rate is 78.43% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.386
Alpha is 3223.22% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2454% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCB
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is 14.69% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
10.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
8.09%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
8.09%
WACC is -2.98% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.27
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.51
Annual revenue growth rate is 303.90% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 106.67% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.14
-
-
Debt per share
$2.62
EBITDA per share
$3.04
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCB
P/E Ratio:
17.26
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.33
P/E ratio is -39.08% lower than main peers & is 39.09% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $26.55
CCB is 51.46% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.34
Price to sales ratio is 1.42% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.51
Price to free cash flow: 35.30
Price to free cash flow ratio is 8.98% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
141.74%
Net income growth rate is 157.37% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
16.33%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-311.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-22.87%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.28% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.31
Interest coverage ratio is 1264.92% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-70.35%
Annual debt growth is -22313% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 42.41%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.465
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -7.05% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.018
Kurtosis
11.875
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.127
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.53%
Effective tax rate is -0.09% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is 9.73% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.96%
Return on assets (ROA) is -58.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
277.4K
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
90.8K
Each employee generates -60% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
62.9K
Each employee generates -56% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
15.4K
Each employee generates -81% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -81% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCB
KISMET ACQUISITION THREE CORP. (XNAS:KIII)
TZP Strategies Acquisition Corp. (XNAS:TZPS)
CLARIM ACQUISITION CORP. (XNAS:CLRM)
PAGAYA TECHNOLOGIES LTD (XNAS:PGY)
SURO CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:SSSS)
ARROWROOT ACQUISITION CORP. (XNAS:ARRW)
Primis Financial Corp. (XNAS:FRST)
TIPTREE INC. (XNAS:TIPT)
SmartFinancial, Inc. (XNAS:SMBK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
120.09M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
50.56M
51.03M
468.00K
-
-
94.58M
3.48M
1.17M
39.33M
-
27.22M
34.68M
7.47M
27.22M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
419.00K
Differed Income Tax :
1.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
539.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 12102.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
3.08M
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.98M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 136365.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
682.11M
134.89M
817.00M
8.82M
-
-
-
23.97M
-
-
146.11M
-
-
-
2.83B
2.83B
149.00K
-
-
-
-
-
33.95M
-
33.95M
2.66B
2.63B
122.59M
85.60M
- 275.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
207.92M
2.83B
281.00M
33.95M
- 648162.0K
35.02M
- 75017.00K
- 177665.00K
- 24999.00K
-
-
-
212.89M
187.89M
-
18.21M
32.71M
14.50M
7.98M
- 1300.00K
6.68M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.61
$62.11
$67.00
$72.28
$77.98