_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cnx Resources Corporation (XNYS:CNX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CNX
Name:
CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNYS:CNX)
Sector:
96.22M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Nicholas DeIuliis
Total Employees:
441
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION(CNX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.35
One Month Price Target:
$17.47
Six Month Price Target :
$18.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.85
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.51
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.92
This week:
$14.16
This month :
$10.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
189.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.24%
-18.93%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.96
$20.87
$10.74
$13.83
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.21
$14.82
$15.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CNX
Sharpe Ratio:
4.99%
Comparison:
CNX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 8.53% higher than the industry
& ratio is 118.83% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CNX
Daily returns:
0.21%
Weekly returns:
1.07%
Monthly returns:
4.28%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -16.46% below industry average
Classification:
CNX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
CNX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.11%
Weekly Volatility:
9.19%
Monthly Volatility:
18.38%
Yearly Volatility:
63.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.38%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -17.85% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.22%
Weekly VaR:
-18.39%
Monthly VaR:
-36.78%
How Much Can the price of
CNX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.13
This translates to price declining to:
$2.60
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CNX is a 159.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 122.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.02% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CNX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.872
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.233
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.679
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.432
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.531
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
10.959
Beta is -88.26% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -36.09% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.393
Alpha is -11.54% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2505% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CNX
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is -29.37% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.31%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.32
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.91
Annual revenue growth rate is -52.17% below industry average
EPS:
-$7.25
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
76.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 137.40% higher than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.86
-
-
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-$7.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
CNX
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.01
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
CNX is -105.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.21
Price to sales ratio is -75.39% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.91
Price to free cash flow: 6.07
Price to free cash flow ratio is -42.97% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-163.79%
Net income growth rate is -123.04% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
118.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
54.32%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-
Debt-to-asset ratio is 1.99% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-9.68
Interest coverage ratio is -222.11% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-10.45%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.262
Statistical significance of correlation:
CNX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is -33.66% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.053
Kurtosis
7.151
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.744
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CNX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
230%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
55.50%
Operating profit margin is -4134.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
230%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.79%
Effective tax rate is 25.24% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-13.55%
Return on equity (ROE) is -259.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-6.16%
Return on assets (ROA) is -367.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
0.48
Current ratio is -75.88% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
11.7
Cash conversion cycle is -83.45% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-0.50%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
6.2M
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 3115.1K
Each employee generates -228% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3445.8K
Each employee generates -924% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
218.2K
Each employee generates -337% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
-
Each employee generates -337% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CNX
TECHNIPFMC PLC (XNYS:FTI)
ENBL
CALLON PETROLEUM COMPANY (XNYS:CPE)
Valaris Limited (XNYS:VAL)
ENERPLUS CORPORATION (XNYS:ERF)
WHITING PETROLEUM CORPORATION (XNYS:WLL)
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNYS:CRC)
SUN
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:CPG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.71B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.06B
1.66B
-
60.76M
116.00M
-
35.13M
151.12M
-
141.85M
504.80M
- 1373771.00K
1.51B
- 1519608.00K
- 2020421.00K
- 500813.00K
- 1519608.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
37.35M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.53M
Change in Working Capital :
- 20006.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 7586.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 36.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
96.75M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
219.65M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
April 27, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.21B
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 118424.00K
- 118424.00K
- 62461.00K
4.80M
- 23988.00K
-
- 5811.00K
- 87461.00K
-
13.76M
35.36M
21.60M
219.65M
- 123429.00K
96.22M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CNX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.91
$20.54
$22.32
$24.25
$26.34