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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cnb Financial Corporation (XNAS:CCNE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCNE
Name:
CNB FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:CCNE)
Sector:
3.79M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Bower
Total Employees:
659
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 53.00% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CNB FINANCIAL CORPORATION(CCNE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.18
One Month Price Target:
$26.3
Six Month Price Target :
$26.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.05
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$24.54
This week:
$22.52
This month :
$18.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
430.10M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.69%
-16.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.78
$30.32
$18.58
$22.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$29.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.45
$23.16
$23.91
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCNE
Sharpe Ratio:
0.19%
Comparison:
CCNE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -84.14% lower than the industry
& is -91.45% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCNE
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.30%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -67.46% below industry average
Classification:
CCNE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
CCNE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.05%
Weekly Volatility:
6.82%
Monthly Volatility:
13.65%
Yearly Volatility:
47.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.54%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.41% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.25%
Weekly VaR:
-13.98%
Monthly VaR:
-27.96%
How Much Can the price of
CCNE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.75
This translates to price declining to:
$3.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCNE is a 97.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.81% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCNE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.601
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.85
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.69
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.611
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.052
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.795
Beta is 4.13% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -14.11% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.68%
Sustainable growth rate is 17.04% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.053
Alpha is -554.15% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -335% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCNE
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -9.55% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.35%
Before-tax cost of debt:
17.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
13.84%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
13.84%
WACC is -22.37% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.04
Annual revenue growth rate is 32.28% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.23
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.33%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -47.35% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.72
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 39.71%
Equity growth rate per share is 2.55% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$6.19
EBITDA per share
$5.63
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCNE
P/E Ratio:
7.9
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1680.35
P/E ratio is -99.53% lower than main peers & is -36.30% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $40.08
CCNE is -34.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $665.01
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.17
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.28
Price to sales ratio is -46.78% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.04
Price to free cash flow: 9.63
Price to free cash flow ratio is -51.49% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
54.41%
Net income growth rate is -1.20% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.04%
Dividend yeild: 2.65%
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.70
Expected next dividend best case: $0.18
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.18
2021-11-30--$0.18
2021-05-28--$0.17
2022-02-28--$0.18
2021-08-31--$0.17
2021-02-26--$0.17
Dividend growth rate is -98.77% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-70.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.81% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.19
Interest coverage ratio is 526.32% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
39.27%
Annual debt growth is 12300% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.493
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCNE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -1.62% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.074
Kurtosis
15.509
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.111
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCNE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.46%
Effective tax rate is -14.31% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is 15.66% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.11%
Return on assets (ROA) is -51.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.85%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
294.3K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
144.0K
Each employee generates -36% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
89.2K
Each employee generates -37% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.7K
Each employee generates -93% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
161.5K
Each employee generates -93% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCNE
GLOBAL INDEMNITY GROUP, LLC (XNYS:GBLI)
SIERRA BANCORP (XNAS:BSRR)
AST SPACEMOBILE, INC. (XNAS:ASTS)
FCAC
International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. (XNAS:IGIC)
SOUTH PLAINS FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:SPFI)
GORES HOLDINGS VIII, INC. (XNAS:GIIX)
CAPSTAR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CSTR)
THBR
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
193.94M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
51.24M
-
80.72M
83.14M
2.42M
- 20246.00K
1.46M
181.44M
18.28M
4.55M
94.91M
-
58.77M
72.08M
13.31M
58.77M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.83M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
501.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 13791.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.79M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 30181.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
404.97M
549.65M
954.63M
43.69M
-
- 10092.00K
988.22M
62.22M
43.75M
435.00K
857.25M
-
- 857251.00K
106.41M
4.40B
5.28B
-
-
-
-
-
-
104.36M
-
104.36M
4.96B
4.86B
-
271.79M
- 27347.0K
181.49M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
425.94M
5.28B
1.41B
104.36M
- 300618.0K
52.64M
- 323009.00K
- 300551.00K
-
-
- 1670.00K
- 2960.00K
- 25831.00K
- 30461.00K
-
- 327224.00K
404.97M
732.20M
3.79M
-
3.79M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCNE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.78
$1,548.42
$1,634.54
$1,725.46
$1,821.43