_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cna Financial Corporation (XNYS:CNA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CNA
Name:
CNA FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:CNA)
Sector:
633.00M
Industry:
Insurance�Property & Casualty
CEO:
Mr. Dino Robusto
Total Employees:
5,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -907.34% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CNA FINANCIAL CORPORATION(CNA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�PROPERTY & CASUALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.92
One Month Price Target:
$39.07
Six Month Price Target :
$39.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.16
This week:
$34.99
This month :
$31.06
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.76B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
271.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.25%
-14.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.08
$43.37
$30.76
$34.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.16
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.36
$35.67
$36.48
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CNA
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.08%
Comparison:
CNA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -105.59% lower than the industry
& is -103.39% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CNA
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.14%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -83.55% below industry average
Classification:
CNA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
CNA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.20%
Weekly Volatility:
4.92%
Monthly Volatility:
9.85%
Yearly Volatility:
34.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.95% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.52%
Weekly VaR:
-10.10%
Monthly VaR:
-20.20%
How Much Can the price of
CNA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-69.96%
This translates to price declining to:
$32.00
This translates to price declining to:
$11.69
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CNA is a 42.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 22.12% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.53% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CNA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.67
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.839
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.187
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.557
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.631
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.809
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.135
Beta is -40.68% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.555
Beta is 21.35% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.55%
Sustainable growth rate is -77.92% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.060
Alpha is -274.16% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -385% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CNA
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is 11.67% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.43%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.07%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.21%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.21%
WACC is 14.56% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$43.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -80.37% below industry average
EPS:
$4.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -60.31% lower than the Insurance�Property & Casualty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.28
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -321.12% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$10.24
EBITDA per share
$6.03
Valuation Analysis Today of
CNA
P/E Ratio:
10.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.01
P/E ratio is -32.01% lower than main peers & is -41.66% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $77.16
CNA is -49.56% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.9
Price to sales ratio is -62.33% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.98
Price to free cash flow: 4.19
Price to free cash flow ratio is -62.26% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
47.68%
Net income growth rate is -263.38% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 54.61%
Dividend yeild: 8.12%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $3.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.81
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.01
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 35.47%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.40
2021-11-12--$0.38
2021-05-14--$0.38
2022-02-18--$2.40
2021-08-13--$0.38
2021-02-19--$1.13
Dividend growth rate is -23.03% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
25.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
22.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.36%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.79%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.49
Interest coverage ratio is 200.84% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.11%
Annual debt growth is -105% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.693
Statistical significance of correlation:
CNA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.6
Stock price is 15.49% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.6
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.055
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.071
Kurtosis
7.212
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.55
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CNA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
18.94%
Effective tax rate is -5.25% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is 36.60% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.89%
Return on assets (ROA) is 23.05% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.1M
Each employee generates 74% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
292.3K
Each employee generates 45% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
214.8K
Each employee generates 52% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
113.0K
Each employee generates 87% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
8.3M
Each employee generates 87% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CNA
INVESCO LTD. (XNYS:IVZ)
LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:LNC)
FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:FNF)
FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC. (XNYS:FDS)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC. (XNYS:APO)
apo MultiAsset Mandat Protect PB
ATH
W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION (XNYS:WRB)
BANK OF CHILE (XNYS:BCH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.69B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
113.00M
40.00M
1.64B
-
1.20B
1.48B
281.00M
1.20B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.00M
Differed Income Tax :
17.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
431.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 5000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 129000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
645.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 12000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 5000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 2625000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
361.00M
1.30B
1.66B
8.40B
-
-
-
225.00M
147.00M
-
46.07B
-
-
46.44B
110.23B
63.79B
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.78B
-
7.31B
60.28B
52.98B
683.00M
9.32B
- 1303000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
10.20B
10.82B
63.79B
47.37B
2.78B
2.4B
2.48B
30.00M
- 129000.00K
-
-
- 21000.00K
- 657000.00K
- 10000.00K
- 688000.00K
- 3000.00K
- 175000.00K
361.00M
536.00M
645.00M
- 12000.00K
633.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CNA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$40.88
$57.44
$60.04
$62.76
$65.60