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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cmc Materials, Inc. (XNAS:CCMP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCMP
Name:
CMC MATERIALS, INC. (XNAS:CCMP)
Sector:
32.04M
Industry:
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
CEO:
Mr. David Li
Total Employees:
2,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -96.32% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CMC MATERIALS, INC.(CCMP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
172.68
One Month Price Target:
$173.74
Six Month Price Target :
$179.04
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$185.4
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$171.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$173.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$159.94
This week:
$144.18
This month :
$115.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.97B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
28.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.93%
-23.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$231.79
$204.50
$113.57
$140.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$195.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$189.79
$149.67
$155.57
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCMP
Sharpe Ratio:
2.72%
Comparison:
CCMP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -2.08% lower than the industry
& ratio is 19.19% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCMP
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.54%
Monthly returns:
2.16%
Yearly returns:
28.31%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -8.52% below industry average
Classification:
CCMP, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.09
Statistical test of Returns:
CCMP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.65%
Weekly Volatility:
8.15%
Monthly Volatility:
16.31%
Yearly Volatility:
56.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.38%
Weekly VaR:
-16.50%
Monthly VaR:
-33.01%
How Much Can the price of
CCMP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$124.42
This translates to price declining to:
$25.90
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCMP is a 132.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 99.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCMP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.10
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.718
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.015
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.626
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.088
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.264
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.23
Beta is -10.88% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is -21.36% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.152
Alpha is -2.39% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 970% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCMP
Equity cost of capital:
0.107
Equity cost of capital is -16.06% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.08%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.30%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.30%
WACC is -29.35% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$44.13
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.47
Annual revenue growth rate is 36.58% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.83
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.52
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 50.91%
Equity growth rate per share is 115.10% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$31.49
EBITDA per share
$11.19
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCMP
P/E Ratio:
45.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
365.63
P/E ratio is -87.61% lower than main peers & is 57.91% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $109.92
CCMP is 57.10% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $49.22
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.09
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.91
Price to sales ratio is -38.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.47
Price to free cash flow: 22.95
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-154.51%
Net income growth rate is -122.59% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.97%
Dividend yeild: 1.07%
Previous Dividend: $0.46
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.46
Previous Dividend: $1.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.45
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.45
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.93%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 21/06/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 22/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 23/03/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/09/2022
Dividend History:
2022-03-22--$0.46
2021-10-12--$0.46
2021-03-22--$0.46
2021-12-21--$0.46
2021-06-22--$0.46
2020-12-21--$0.44
Dividend growth rate is -109.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
99.81%
Net debt to equity ratio:
79.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
33.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -16.23% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.31
Interest coverage ratio is -57.27% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.42%
Annual debt growth is -153% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.601
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCMP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -0.49% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.01
Kurtosis
18.969
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.02
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCMP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
160%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.09%
Operating profit margin is -436.12% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
160%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.65%
Effective tax rate is 89.53% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is -12.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is -40.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
2.96
Current ratio is -32.62% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
41.3
Cash conversion cycle is -29.04% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.37%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
573.9K
Each employee generates -2% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
145.6K
Each employee generates -13% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
50.8K
Each employee generates -54% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
14.6K
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
720.6K
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 3.60%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -84.78% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCMP
Rackspace Technology, Inc. (XNAS:RXT)
AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AMKR)
ALTAIR ENGINEERING INC. (XNAS:ALTR)
API
TTEC Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TTEC)
POWER INTEGRATIONS, INC. (XNAS:POWI)
CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD. (XNAS:CYBR)
ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC (XNAS:ALGM)
CHINDATA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:CD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.26B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
757.04M
505.58M
54.51M
-
218.02M
-
-
272.53M
11.00K
38.52M
133.45M
320.22M
190.50M
111.70M
148.24M
36.54M
111.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
32.70M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2178.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 31752.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 17467.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.03M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
45.23M
Investments in PP&E:
- 13193.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
200.02M
-
200.02M
166.96M
174.45M
32.39M
573.81M
379.17M
567.27M
605.60M
-
6.47M
26.80M
1.59B
-
2.16B
59.48M
20.99M
24.29M
12.52M
101.07M
194.05M
901.09M
86.65M
1.06B
-
1.26B
40.00K
446.19M
9.2M
430.05M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.03B
902.82M
2.16B
-
922.08M
722.1M
-
5.00K
- 13188.00K
- 2663.00K
13.20M
- 13939.00K
- 13375.00K
- 232.00K
- 17005.00K
- 995.00K
14.04M
200.02M
185.98M
45.23M
- 13193.00K
32.04M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCMP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$186.33
$546.89
$587.18
$630.45
$676.90