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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Clearfield, Inc. (XNAS:CLFD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CLFD
Name:
Clearfield, Inc. (XNAS:CLFD)
Sector:
- 2085.00K
Industry:
Communication Equipment
CEO:
Ms. Cheryl Beranek
Total Employees:
250
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 381.71% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CLEARFIELD, INC.(CLFD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
99.8
One Month Price Target:
$100.54
Six Month Price Target :
$104.26
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$108.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$99.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$100.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$91.87
This week:
$82.07
This month :
$64.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.38B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
13.78M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.6%
-15.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$136.49
$118.99
$63.11
$80.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$113.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$109.56
$86.25
$90.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CLFD
Sharpe Ratio:
8.71%
Comparison:
CLFD, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 572.20% higher than the industry
& ratio is 282.33% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CLFD
Daily returns:
0.36%
Weekly returns:
1.81%
Monthly returns:
7.23%
Yearly returns:
12.89%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 573.01% above industry average
Classification:
CLFD, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0
Statistical test of Returns:
CLFD has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.04%
Weekly Volatility:
9.04%
Monthly Volatility:
18.09%
Yearly Volatility:
62.66%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.14%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 2.24% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.95%
Weekly VaR:
-17.77%
Monthly VaR:
-35.53%
How Much Can the price of
CLFD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$72.59
This translates to price declining to:
$14.97
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CLFD is a 150.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 114.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 27.65% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CLFD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.33
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.912
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.289
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.32
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.206
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.743
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.185
Beta is 12.34% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.197
Beta is 11.15% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.24%
Sustainable growth rate is -40.38% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.745
Alpha is 4751.97% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4739% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CLFD
Equity cost of capital:
0.123
Equity cost of capital is 8.06% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
12.01
Annual revenue growth rate is 448.82% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.39
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
80.22%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 401.10% higher than the Communication Equipment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.09
EBITDA per share
$3.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
CLFD
P/E Ratio:
34.83
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
466.08
P/E ratio is -92.53% lower than main peers & is -6.17% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $88.73
CLFD is 12.48% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.29
Price to sales ratio is 218.42% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
12.01
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 423.83% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
365.44%
Net income growth rate is -19.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.06%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.88%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.81%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.48%
Annual debt growth is -7% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.522
Statistical significance of correlation:
CLFD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is -5.33% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.043
Kurtosis
4.934
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.915
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CLFD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
176%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.30%
Operating profit margin is 246.80% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
176%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.06%
Effective tax rate is -20.93% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is -16.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
24.06%
Return on assets (ROA) is 451.02% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.81
Current ratio is 71.09% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
29.7
Cash conversion cycle is -52.48% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.33%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
754.3K
Each employee generates 37% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
180.2K
Each employee generates 139% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
132.6K
Each employee generates 437% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.3K
Each employee generates 429% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
214.9K
Each employee generates 429% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CLFD
SIERRA WIRELESS, INC. (XNAS:SWIR)
GILAT SATELLITE NETWORKS LTD. (XNAS:GILT)
QUANTUM CORPORATION (XNAS:QMCO)
INTERNATIONAL MONEY EXPRESS, INC. (XNAS:IMXI)
DIGIMARC CORPORATION (XNAS:DMRC)
Triterras, Inc. (OTCM:TRIRF)
ATTU
THE HACKETT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HCKT)
USATP
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
188.58M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
105.57M
83.00M
-
-
40.95M
-
-
40.95M
363.07K
-
2.52M
45.06M
42.05M
33.15M
42.53M
9.38M
33.15M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
639.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
440.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 11491.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.11M
Other Working Capital:
73.67M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 11.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 34.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2051.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 248.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
12.68M
10.37M
23.06M
16.33M
43.57M
1.09M
84.04M
8.34M
4.71M
4.55M
35.19M
365.00K
572.00K
53.72M
-
137.76M
12.37M
702.00K
-
-
9.01M
22.08M
1.21M
-
1.21M
-
23.29M
138.00K
55.83M
-
58.51M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
146.53M
114.47M
137.76M
45.57M
1.92M
- 10766.0K
1.98M
-
- 319.00K
-
249.00K
0.25K
-
- 430.25K
- 181.00K
-
- 534.00K
12.68M
13.22M
- 34.00K
- 2051.00K
- 2085.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CLFD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$109.26
$661.63
$720.80
$785.26
$855.47