_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (XNAS:CLNE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CLNE
Name:
CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP. (XNAS:CLNE)
Sector:
- 7027.00K
Industry:
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CEO:
Mr. Andrew Littlefair
Total Employees:
482
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 102.96% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP.(CLNE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.23
One Month Price Target:
$6.3
Six Month Price Target :
$6.66
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.46
This week:
$4.5
This month :
$2.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.38B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
222.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
46.3%
-34.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.81
$8.13
$2.65
$4.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.23
$4.87
$5.23
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CLNE
Sharpe Ratio:
5.56%
Comparison:
CLNE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 66.02% higher than the industry
& ratio is 144.00% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CLNE
Daily returns:
0.35%
Weekly returns:
1.77%
Monthly returns:
7.08%
Yearly returns:
39.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 113.71% above industry average
Classification:
CLNE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.25
Statistical test of Returns:
CLNE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.21%
Weekly Volatility:
13.88%
Monthly Volatility:
27.76%
Yearly Volatility:
96.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -16.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.39%
Weekly VaR:
-27.71%
Monthly VaR:
-55.42%
How Much Can the price of
CLNE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-45%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.43
This translates to price declining to:
$0.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CLNE is a 291.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 235.12% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 50.86% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CLNE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.256
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.776
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.865
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.582
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.452
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.949
Beta is 4.50% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.405
Beta is 44.96% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.679
Alpha is 151.51% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4320% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CLNE
Equity cost of capital:
0.171
Equity cost of capital is 33.87% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
15.66%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.43%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.87%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.87%
WACC is 60.00% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -525.43% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.02
-
-
Debt per share
$0.30
EBITDA per share
-$0.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
CLNE
P/E Ratio:
85.71
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.02
P/E ratio is 242.51% higher than main peers & is 554.13% higher than the industry
-
CLNE is -191.44% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.28
Price to sales ratio is 244.82% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.88
Price to free cash flow: 260.14
Price to free cash flow ratio is 151.58% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1890.93%
Net income growth rate is 436.50% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-3.60%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -86.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-9.75
Interest coverage ratio is -679.54% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-28.79%
Annual debt growth is -124% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 17.09%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.453
Statistical significance of correlation:
CLNE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -12.46% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.112
Kurtosis
11.459
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.521
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CLNE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-11992%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-41.48%
Operating profit margin is 3274.11% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-11992%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.08%
Effective tax rate is -100.65% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-15.08%
Return on equity (ROE) is -113.38% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is -359.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.59
Current ratio is 12.93% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
131.6
Cash conversion cycle is 504.62% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 20.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-10.90%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
543.6K
Each employee generates -87% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 122.8K
Each employee generates -143% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 228.6K
Each employee generates -253% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 14.6K
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CLNE
RATTLER MIDSTREAM LP COMMON ORD (XNAS:RTLR)
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PTEN)
CHORD ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:CHRD)
PERMIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:PR)
National Energy Services Reunited Corp. (XNAS:NESR)
OASIS MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:OMP)
XOG
KINETIK HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:KNTK)
Brooge Energy Ltd (XNAS:BROG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
262.00M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
274.28M
- 12279.00K
-
-
96.39M
-
-
96.39M
1.09M
6.07M
44.84M
- 59173.00K
- 108671.00K
- 110168.00K
- 111199.00K
85.00K
- 110168.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.39M
Differed Income Tax :
21.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
12.01M
Change in Working Capital :
- 109.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
801.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.10M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.84M
Investments in PP&E:
- 11866.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 99803.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
107.97M
120.57M
228.54M
94.47M
32.32M
57.25M
412.58M
299.11M
64.33M
5.50M
108.27M
-
42.94M
520.16M
-
932.73M
25.60M
14.50M
3.69M
8.05M
66.73M
114.88M
67.19M
12.33M
79.52M
-
194.40M
22.00K
- 795433.00K
- 1373.0K
1.53B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
370.67M
730.38M
924.78M
228.84M
81.69M
- 26280.0K
109.00M
4.03M
1.36M
- 13848.00K
273.00K
- 3001.00K
-
11.77M
- 4807.00K
120.00K
1.51M
107.97M
106.46M
4.84M
- 11866.00K
- 7027.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CLNE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.10
$8.07
$9.18
$10.44
$11.86