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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Clarus Corporation (XNAS:CLAR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CLAR
Name:
CLARUS CORPORATION (XNAS:CLAR)
Sector:
- 12695.00K
Industry:
Leisure
CEO:
Mr. Peter Metcalf
Total Employees:
950
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -678.30% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CLARUS CORPORATION(CLAR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LEISURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
15.51
One Month Price Target:
$15.6
Six Month Price Target :
$16.05
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$15.44
Price Upper limit ($) :
$15.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.48
This week:
$13.21
This month :
$10.92
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
564.73M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
37.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.94%
-17.38%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.27
$18.08
$10.75
$12.94
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.90
$13.65
$14.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CLAR
Sharpe Ratio:
2.20%
Comparison:
CLAR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 24.11% higher than the industry
& is -3.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CLAR
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.62%
Yearly returns:
16.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 17.07% above industry average
Classification:
CLAR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.85
Statistical test of Returns:
CLAR has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.26%
Weekly Volatility:
7.30%
Monthly Volatility:
14.60%
Yearly Volatility:
50.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
7.31%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 123.89% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.62%
Weekly VaR:
-14.81%
Monthly VaR:
-29.61%
How Much Can the price of
CLAR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.59
This translates to price declining to:
$2.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CLAR is a 109.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 79.06% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.37% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CLAR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.03
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.813
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.149
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.641
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.031
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.794
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.817
Beta is -43.31% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.42
Beta is -27.49% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.38%
Sustainable growth rate is -82.62% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.092
Alpha is 149.51% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 584% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CLAR
Equity cost of capital:
0.102
Equity cost of capital is -20.76% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.35%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.93%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.93%
WACC is -3.06% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.51
Annual revenue growth rate is -29.33% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.54
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 103.24%
Equity growth rate per share is 718.08% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$3.74
EBITDA per share
$0.98
Valuation Analysis Today of
CLAR
P/E Ratio:
22.18
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.91
P/E ratio is 17.28% higher than main peers & is -48.30% lower than the industry
-
CLAR is -166.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $6.64
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.98
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.4
Price to sales ratio is -53.38% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.51
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
224.08%
Net income growth rate is 34.11% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.62%
Dividend yeild: 0.64%
Previous Dividend: $0.03
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.03
Previous Dividend: $0.10
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.03
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 29/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.03
2021-11-05--$0.03
2021-05-07--$0.03
2022-03-04--$0.03
2021-08-06--$0.03
2021-02-05--$0.03
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
36.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
35.36%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.49%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.15% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.38
Interest coverage ratio is -72.79% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.86%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.601
Statistical significance of correlation:
CLAR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.567
Stock price is 5.90% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.567
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
4.246
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.521
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CLAR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
149%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.71%
Operating profit margin is 30.97% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
149%
Effective Tax Rate:
-65.99%
Effective tax rate is -426.83% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is -72.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.89%
Return on assets (ROA) is -38.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.22
Current ratio is 45.95% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
31.6
Cash conversion cycle is -51.56% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
13.09%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
435.5K
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
38.4K
Each employee generates -74% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
27.1K
Each employee generates -63% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 13.4K
Each employee generates -54% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
430.8K
Each employee generates -54% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CLAR
CONN'S, INC. (XNAS:CONN)
FOSSIL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:FOSL)
EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC (XNAS:LOCO)
RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:RICK)
MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MCFT)
RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS, INC. (XNAS:RRGB)
NOODLES & COMPANY (XNAS:NDLS)
BIG 5 SPORTING GOODS CORPORATION (XNAS:BGFV)
DULUTH HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DLTH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
413.74M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
259.61M
154.13M
-
-
118.78M
-
966.00K
119.75M
-
1.79M
19.22M
36.51M
23.62M
25.73M
15.50M
- 10227.00K
25.73M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.95M
Differed Income Tax :
524.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.37M
Change in Working Capital :
- 27574.00K
Accounts Receivables:
437.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 2737.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.63M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 10795.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1900.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
16.45M
-
16.45M
69.79M
152.72M
12.84M
251.80M
43.17M
121.06M
202.44M
-
22.46M
20.16M
409.29M
-
661.08M
34.10M
12.10M
1.84M
-
32.02M
78.22M
139.83M
23.03M
199.76M
-
277.98M
4.00K
- 258963.00K
1.1M
640.95M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
379.36M
383.11M
661.08M
-
151.93M
135.5M
-
-
- 1900.00K
- 15302.00K
-
- 1097.00K
- 930.00K
25.80M
8.47M
1.21M
- 3014.00K
16.45M
19.47M
- 10795.00K
- 1900.00K
- 12695.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CLAR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.66
$9.58
$10.24
$10.95
$11.71