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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
City Holding Company (XNAS:CHCO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CHCO
Name:
CITY HOLDING COMPANY (XNAS:CHCO)
Sector:
27.88M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Charles Hageboeck
Total Employees:
905
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1735.07% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CITY HOLDING COMPANY(CHCO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
84.22
One Month Price Target:
$84.48
Six Month Price Target :
$85.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$87.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$83.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$84.56
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$80.47
This week:
$75.84
This month :
$67.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.24B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.87%
-10.08%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$101.62
$93.65
$66.82
$74.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$91.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$89.36
$77.36
$79.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CHCO
Sharpe Ratio:
1.02%
Comparison:
CHCO, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -16.97% lower than the industry
& is -55.25% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CHCO
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.62%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -31.58% below industry average
Classification:
CHCO, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
CHCO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.18%
Weekly Volatility:
4.88%
Monthly Volatility:
9.76%
Yearly Volatility:
33.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.24%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.20% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.45%
Weekly VaR:
-9.95%
Monthly VaR:
-19.90%
How Much Can the price of
CHCO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-68.95%
This translates to price declining to:
$69.70
This translates to price declining to:
$26.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CHCO is a 40.48% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 20.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.61% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CHCO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.52
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.735
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.076
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.406
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.643
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.86
Beta is -36.11% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -42.98% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.71%
Sustainable growth rate is -15.55% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.006
Alpha is -52.47% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 35% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CHCO
Equity cost of capital:
0.069
Equity cost of capital is -29.09% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.96%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -47.38% below industry average
EPS:
$5.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -88.42% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.12
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 25.37%
Equity growth rate per share is -34.48% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$9.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
CHCO
P/E Ratio:
14.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.44
P/E ratio is -1.61% lower than main peers & is 14.51% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $72.71
CHCO is 15.82% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $54.95
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $37.10
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.69
Price to sales ratio is 33.02% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.98
Price to free cash flow: 11.84
Price to free cash flow ratio is -26.01% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
29.13%
Net income growth rate is -47.10% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.09%
Dividend yeild: 2.80%
Previous Dividend: $0.60
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.60
Previous Dividend: $2.36
Expected next dividend best case: $0.61
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.59
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.58
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.52%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 30/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$0.60
2021-10-14--$0.58
2021-04-14--$0.58
2022-01-13--$0.60
2021-07-14--$0.58
2021-01-14--$0.58
Dividend growth rate is -97.79% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
781.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-94.56%
Debt to assets ratio:
88.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.95%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.88
Interest coverage ratio is 1936.07% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.494
Statistical significance of correlation:
CHCO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -1.38% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
5.834
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.526
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CHCO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.69%
Effective tax rate is -3.98% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.17%
Return on equity (ROE) is 18.77% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is -35.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
8.8x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.08%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
243.0K
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
151.6K
Each employee generates -33% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
99.0K
Each employee generates -30% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
30.8K
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.8M
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CHCO
AMERISAFE, INC (XNAS:AMSF)
BPFH
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
STONEX GROUP INC. (XNAS:SNEX)
MERCHANTS BANCORP (XNAS:MBIN)
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SAFT)
FIRST BANCORP (XNAS:FBNC)
OAKTREE SPECIALTY LENDING CORPORATION (XNAS:OCSL)
OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:OCFC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
219.93M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
70.05M
73.06M
3.01M
-
-
164.08M
8.13M
16.11M
137.23M
-
89.61M
112.99M
23.38M
89.61M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.93M
Differed Income Tax :
880.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
971.00K
Change in Working Capital :
2.28M
Accounts Receivables:
- 474.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2117.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
28.28M
Investments in PP&E:
- 401.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 157909.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
598.05M
1.41B
2.01B
16.10M
-
-
-
73.07M
-
-
1.43B
-
-
1.62B
7.64B
6.01B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.38B
5.38B
47.62M
654.14M
- 44714.0K
- 24613.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
632.43M
6.01B
2.84B
-
- 598048.0K
69.52M
- 13606.00K
- 102395.00K
-
-
- 2984.00K
- 9038.00K
49.56M
37.53M
-
- 36583.00K
598.05M
634.63M
28.28M
- 401.00K
27.88M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CHCO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$97.14
$100.73
$104.44
$108.30
$112.30