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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Citrix Systems, Inc. (XNAS:CTXS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CTXS
Name:
CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CTXS)
Sector:
253.41M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. David Henshall
Total Employees:
9,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -98.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC.(CTXS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
102.83
One Month Price Target:
$102.88
Six Month Price Target :
$103.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$103.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$102.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$103.22
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$98.33
This week:
$92.77
This month :
$82.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.05B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
126.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.1%
-13.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$123.71
$114.19
$81.95
$91.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$111.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$109.05
$94.55
$96.61
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CTXS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.23%
Comparison:
CTXS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -76.47% lower than the industry
& is -90.05% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CTXS
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.27%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -66.93% below industry average
Classification:
CTXS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
CTXS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.14%
Weekly Volatility:
4.78%
Monthly Volatility:
9.55%
Yearly Volatility:
33.09%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.19%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -90.91% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.37%
Weekly VaR:
-9.78%
Monthly VaR:
-19.56%
How Much Can the price of
CTXS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-67.75%
This translates to price declining to:
$85.20
This translates to price declining to:
$33.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CTXS is a 38.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 18.25% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -40.58% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CTXS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.08
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.358
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.506
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.008
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.462
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.436
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.412
Beta is -94.37% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -94.05% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
32.93%
Sustainable growth rate is 5.88% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.004
Alpha is -82.71% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -26% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CTXS
Equity cost of capital:
0.037
Equity cost of capital is -69.96% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.37%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.57%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.03%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.03%
WACC is -68.49% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$25.75
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
19.63
Annual revenue growth rate is -85.22% below industry average
EPS:
$2.19
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-22.34%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -181.68% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.08
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 327.85%
Equity growth rate per share is 21343.57% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$26.63
EBITDA per share
$4.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
CTXS
P/E Ratio:
39.59
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
74.93
P/E ratio is -47.17% lower than main peers & is -77.71% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $388.94
CTXS is -73.56% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $86.51
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $49.94
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.99
Price to sales ratio is -65.18% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
19.63
Price to free cash flow: 20.24
Price to free cash flow ratio is -77.28% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-41.81%
Net income growth rate is -117.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 1.44%
Previous Dividend: $0.37
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.37
Previous Dividend: $1.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.38
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.36
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.36
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.71%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 03/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 02/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 21/12/2021
Previous dividend record date: 12/07/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 11/08/2021
Dividend History:
2021-12-06--$0.37
2021-06-10--$0.37
2020-12-07--$0.35
2021-09-09--$0.37
2021-03-11--$0.37
2020-09-10--$0.35
Dividend growth rate is -107.21% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
508.54%
Net debt to equity ratio:
414.23%
Debt to assets ratio:
49.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -10.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.98
Interest coverage ratio is -88.75% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
81.10%
Annual debt growth is -91% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.364
Statistical significance of correlation:
CTXS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -27.57% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.046
Kurtosis
11.342
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.225
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CTXS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
324%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.36%
Operating profit margin is -138.42% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
324%
Effective Tax Rate:
-74.12%
Effective tax rate is -381.01% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
41.78%
Return on equity (ROE) is -419.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -205.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
0.74
Current ratio is -75.23% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
7.3
Cash conversion cycle is -92.32% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
28.60%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
336.8K
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
55.1K
Each employee generates 413% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
28.6K
Each employee generates -264% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
26.1K
Each employee generates -436% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
535.4K
Each employee generates -436% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 8.09%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 429.02% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CTXS
BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:BSY)
Weibo Corporation (XNAS:WB)
PAYLOCITY HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:PCTY)
JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES, INC. (XNAS:JKHY)
COGNEX CORPORATION (XNAS:CGNX)
HASHICORP, INC. (XNAS:HCP)
SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:SEDG)
ROBINHOOD MARKETS, INC. (XNAS:HOOD)
MONDAY.COM LTD (XNAS:MNDY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�21%
Hold�42%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�8%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.27B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
623.50M
2.64B
585.35M
423.70M
1.62B
1.19B
77.95M
2.28B
1.35M
89.51M
285.93M
534.91M
240.52M
277.68M
159.47M
- 118209.00K
277.68M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
85.76M
Differed Income Tax :
- 5510.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
79.41M
Change in Working Capital :
33.10M
Accounts Receivables:
274.59M
Other Working Capital:
- 100283.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
21.93M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
274.91M
Investments in PP&E:
- 18839.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 2034.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
726.69M
12.43M
739.12M
602.54M
26.99M
304.29M
1.67B
350.11M
3.40B
726.09M
11.87M
413.37M
287.89M
5.19B
-
6.87B
134.87M
99.95M
43.31M
1.62B
396.64M
2.25B
3.38B
252.81M
3.95B
-
6.20B
327.00K
5.16B
- 3541.0K
- 4493697.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.90B
664.56M
6.87B
24.30M
3.48B
2.8B
5.67M
- 2145.00K
- 17349.00K
-
-
-
-
- 42545.00K
- 42545.00K
- 2318.00K
212.70M
726.69M
513.99M
274.91M
- 21498.00K
253.41M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CTXS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$113.31
$113.91
$114.52
$115.13
$115.75