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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (XNYS:CFG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CFG
Name:
CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CFG)
Sector:
- 51000.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Bruce Van Saun
Total Employees:
17,463
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -160.35% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.(CFG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.18
One Month Price Target:
$36.46
Six Month Price Target :
$37.84
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$39.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.99
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.69
This week:
$30.61
This month :
$25.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
17.70B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
495.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.%
-21.77%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.74
$42.45
$24.62
$29.91
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$40.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.59
$31.62
$32.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CFG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.10%
Comparison:
CFG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -10.50% lower than the industry
& is -51.76% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CFG
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.92%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.04% above industry average
Classification:
CFG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.32
Statistical test of Returns:
CFG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.37%
Weekly Volatility:
7.54%
Monthly Volatility:
15.09%
Yearly Volatility:
52.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.55%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.80% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.88%
Weekly VaR:
-15.39%
Monthly VaR:
-30.78%
How Much Can the price of
CFG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$26.52
This translates to price declining to:
$5.43
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CFG is a 117.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 86.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 18.09% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CFG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.36
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.97
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.372
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.129
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.981
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.139
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.051
Beta is 29.83% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 41.57% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.15%
Sustainable growth rate is -21.70% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.015
Alpha is -226.69% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -94% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CFG
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is 28.14% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.17%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.08%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.08%
WACC is 6.50% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.81
Annual revenue growth rate is -24.30% below industry average
EPS:
$4.72
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.54%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -12.31% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.55
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 82.02%
Equity growth rate per share is 111.81% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$11.89
EBITDA per share
$7.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
CFG
P/E Ratio:
9.16
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.33
P/E ratio is -19.13% lower than main peers & is -26.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $58.57
CFG is -38.23% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $25.56
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.48
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.7
Price to sales ratio is -36.79% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.81
Price to free cash flow: 5.52
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
51.92%
Net income growth rate is -5.72% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.75%
Dividend yeild: 4.31%
Previous Dividend: $0.39
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.39
Previous Dividend: $1.56
Expected next dividend best case: $0.40
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.38
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.39
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.83%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/03/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-02--$0.39
2021-10-28--$0.39
2021-04-28--$0.39
2022-01-28--$0.39
2021-07-29--$0.39
2021-02-02--$0.39
Dividend growth rate is -96.48% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.70%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-21.30%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.07%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.45%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.69
Interest coverage ratio is 1310.79% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-16.19%
Annual debt growth is -5212% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 14.55%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.68
Statistical significance of correlation:
CFG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 35.88% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.056
Kurtosis
8.273
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.176
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CFG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.11%
Effective tax rate is 2.60% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.64%
Return on equity (ROE) is -19.19% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.11%
Return on assets (ROA) is -51.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
12.64
Current ratio is -78.91% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.55%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
379.9K
Each employee generates 0% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
204.9K
Each employee generates -9% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
121.9K
Each employee generates -14% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.9K
Each employee generates -104% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.0M
Each employee generates -104% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CFG
M&T BANK CORPORATION (XNYS:MTB)
RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:RJF)
REGIONS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:RF)
CS
THE HARTFORD FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNYS:HIG)
KEYCORP (XNYS:KEY)
ORIX CORPORATION (XNYS:IX)
STT-PD
HIG-PG
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�29%
Hold�42%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
1.65B
-
2.18B
2.27B
92.00M
-
-
4.85B
306.00M
540.00M
3.58B
-
2.13B
2.73B
604.00M
2.13B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
67.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 47000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
33.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 473000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 143000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 2656000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
10.62B
25.32B
35.94B
1.53B
-
- 37153000.00K
316.00M
793.00M
7.23B
-
27.38B
- 47000.00K
47.00M
35.40B
227.18B
192.10B
-
25.00M
-
-
-
25.00M
5.89B
-
5.89B
175.89B
170.02B
6.00M
8.21B
- 2258000.0K
14.10B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
22.07B
192.10B
52.69B
5.92B
- 4702000.0K
2.10B
- 3212000.00K
- 3914000.00K
- 1004000.00K
-
-
- 165000.00K
4.31B
3.14B
-
778.00M
9.94B
9.16B
-
- 51000.00K
- 51000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CFG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$39.70
$56.13
$61.28
$66.90
$73.03