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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cirrus Logic, Inc. (XNAS:CRUS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CRUS
Name:
CIRRUS LOGIC, INC. (XNAS:CRUS)
Sector:
- 38699.00K
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Dr. Jason Rhode
Total Employees:
1,591
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1775.09% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CIRRUS LOGIC, INC.(CRUS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
73.24
One Month Price Target:
$73.65
Six Month Price Target :
$75.71
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$78.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$72.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$73.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$68.99
This week:
$63.75
This month :
$54.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.04B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
55.94M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.04%
-17.17%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$92.95
$83.93
$53.53
$62.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$81.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$79.07
$65.46
$67.41
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CRUS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.93%
Comparison:
CRUS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -69.88% lower than the industry
& is -59.09% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CRUS
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.71%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -73.45% below industry average
Classification:
CRUS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
CRUS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.84%
Weekly Volatility:
6.35%
Monthly Volatility:
12.70%
Yearly Volatility:
44.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.09%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -61.68% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.80%
Weekly VaR:
-12.96%
Monthly VaR:
-25.93%
How Much Can the price of
CRUS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-89.82%
This translates to price declining to:
$56.74
This translates to price declining to:
$7.46
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CRUS is a 83.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 56.77% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.97% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CRUS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.01
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.736
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.041
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.931
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.134
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.988
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.529
Beta is -34.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is -28.70% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.52%
Sustainable growth rate is -36.64% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.016
Alpha is -108.14% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -99% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CRUS
Equity cost of capital:
0.100
Equity cost of capital is -21.64% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.47%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.47%
WACC is -10.73% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$31.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.91
Annual revenue growth rate is -108.43% below industry average
EPS:
$5.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
42.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -19.34% lower than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.73
-
-
Debt per share
$2.26
EBITDA per share
$7.71
Valuation Analysis Today of
CRUS
P/E Ratio:
12.36
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.81
P/E ratio is -63.44% lower than main peers & is -70.20% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $228.95
CRUS is -68.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.3
Price to sales ratio is -71.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.91
Price to free cash flow: 42.31
Price to free cash flow ratio is 700.21% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
46.41%
Net income growth rate is -181.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.99%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-17.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-13.45%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -82.12% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
518.08
Interest coverage ratio is 1480.21% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.712
Statistical significance of correlation:
CRUS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is 13.49% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.017
Kurtosis
7.098
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.12
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CRUS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
207%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.56%
Operating profit margin is -12.60% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
207%
Effective Tax Rate:
11.48%
Effective tax rate is -23.95% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.20%
Return on equity (ROE) is -18.87% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
17.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is 36.67% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
4.5
Current ratio is 10.82% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
40.3
Cash conversion cycle is -26.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.59%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 81% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
271.2K
Each employee generates 16% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
205.1K
Each employee generates 27% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 24.3K
Each employee generates -188% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
612.6K
Each employee generates -188% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -1.41%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -109.93% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CRUS
MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MTSI)
CDK GLOBAL, INC. (XNAS:CDK)
DIGITAL TURBINE, INC. (XNAS:APPS)
SITIME CORPORATION (XNAS:SITM)
STONECO LTD. (XNAS:STNE)
POWER INTEGRATIONS, INC. (XNAS:POWI)
NCINO, INC. (XNAS:NCNO)
SEMTECH CORPORATION (XNAS:SMTC)
QUALYS, INC. (XNAS:QLYS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�21%
Hold�8%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
1.78B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
857.82M
923.64M
406.31M
-
151.00M
-
-
557.30M
1.56M
833.00K
62.06M
431.56M
366.34M
326.36M
368.66M
42.31M
326.36M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.90M
Differed Income Tax :
- 9270.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
14.99M
Change in Working Capital :
- 61726.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 27822.00K
Other Working Capital:
652.84M
Other Non-Cash Items:
108.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 26796.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 10835.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 53969.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/26/21
2022
Q1
385.13M
60.50M
445.63M
136.53M
192.72M
64.46M
839.34M
289.90M
287.52M
18.43M
311.64M
19.48M
47.69M
974.66M
-
1.81B
95.23M
14.66M
-
-
76.61M
186.50M
126.44M
94.33M
220.77M
-
407.28M
1.51B
- 109754.00K
1.9M
-
June 26, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.42B
1.41B
1.81B
372.15M
141.10M
- 244023.0K
49.16M
- 1068.00K
- 16714.00K
-
746.00K
- 14273.00K
-
-
- 13527.00K
-
- 57037.00K
385.13M
442.16M
- 26796.00K
- 11903.00K
- 38699.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CRUS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$78.58
$148.80
$158.86
$169.59
$181.05