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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (XNYS:CHD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CHD
Name:
CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC. (XNYS:CHD)
Sector:
137.20M
Industry:
Household & Personal Products
CEO:
Mr. Matthew Farrell
Total Employees:
5,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -49.51% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC.(CHD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
84.18
One Month Price Target:
$84.35
Six Month Price Target :
$85.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$86.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$83.98
Price Upper limit ($) :
$84.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$81.41
This week:
$77.98
This month :
$71.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
19.49B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
242.91M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.67%
-8.56%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.04
$91.11
$71.32
$77.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$89.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.92
$79.16
$80.44
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CHD
Sharpe Ratio:
2.00%
Comparison:
CHD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 66.03% higher than the industry
& is -12.47% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CHD
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.82%
Yearly returns:
9.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 6.98% above industry average
Classification:
CHD, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.04
Statistical test of Returns:
CHD has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.62%
Weekly Volatility:
3.63%
Monthly Volatility:
7.26%
Yearly Volatility:
25.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.16%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -28.80% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.29%
Weekly VaR:
-7.36%
Monthly VaR:
-14.73%
How Much Can the price of
CHD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-13%
Worst case (decline):
-51.01%
This translates to price declining to:
$73.62
This translates to price declining to:
$41.24
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CHD is a 3.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -10.96% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -34.30% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CHD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.462
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.653
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.254
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.306
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.395
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.56
Beta is -37.23% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.835
Beta is -57.91% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
22.85%
Sustainable growth rate is -21.23% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.043
Alpha is 1041.02% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 276% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CHD
Equity cost of capital:
0.056
Equity cost of capital is -37.35% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.02%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.37%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.87%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.87%
WACC is -28.44% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.01
Annual revenue growth rate is 31.43% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.26
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.92%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -81.09% lower than the Household & Personal Products industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.78
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 16.32%
Equity growth rate per share is 60.51% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$6.63
EBITDA per share
$5.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
CHD
P/E Ratio:
26.76
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.32
P/E ratio is 31.68% higher than main peers & is 1.19% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $86.21
CHD is -2.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $52.81
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $25.40
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.9
Price to sales ratio is 6.95% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.01
Price to free cash flow: 22.28
Price to free cash flow ratio is -14.72% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
45.89%
Net income growth rate is -98.24% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.85%
Dividend yeild: 1.22%
Previous Dividend: $0.26
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.26
Previous Dividend: $1.03
Expected next dividend best case: $0.27
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.25
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.45%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.26
2021-11-12--$0.25
2021-05-13--$0.25
2022-02-14--$0.26
2021-08-13--$0.25
2021-02-12--$0.25
Dividend growth rate is -113.30% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
47.35%
Net debt to equity ratio:
65.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.44% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
22.45
Interest coverage ratio is 59.27% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
18.44%
Annual debt growth is -60% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.51%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.416
Statistical significance of correlation:
CHD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is -25.19% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.003
Kurtosis
11.621
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.321
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CHD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
173%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.14%
Operating profit margin is -348.95% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
173%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.44%
Effective tax rate is -8.57% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is -45.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.22%
Return on assets (ROA) is 151.37% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.65
Current ratio is -75.78% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
44.9
Cash conversion cycle is -57.40% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.36%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 54% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
251.4K
Each employee generates 77% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
159.1K
Each employee generates 87% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
26.9K
Each employee generates 1001% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates 1001% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CHD
MCCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED (XNYS:MKC)
MCCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED (XNYS:MKC)
COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS PLC (XNAS:CCEP)
Mexican Economic Development, Inc. (XNYS:FMX)
KELLOGG COMPANY (XNYS:K)
THE CLOROX COMPANY (XNYS:CLX)
BF-A
BF-B
TYSON FOODS, INC. (XNYS:TSN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�54%
Sell�21%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.25B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.98B
2.27B
-
627.00M
1.21B
580.90M
-
1.21B
-
57.10M
217.90M
1.28B
1.06B
811.20M
1.01B
195.70M
811.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
53.70M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 104100.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1800.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 4100.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3100.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
152.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 15600.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
174.40M
-
174.40M
407.10M
598.80M
41.50M
1.22B
653.20M
2.27B
3.46B
10.80M
-
316.90M
6.72B
-
7.94B
655.00M
802.70M
59.70M
-
413.90M
1.87B
1.61B
317.50M
2.67B
-
4.54B
292.80M
5.51B
- 53200.0K
- 2343400.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.19B
3.40B
7.94B
-
2.41B
2.2B
-
- 100.00K
- 15700.00K
- 149900.00K
-
-
- 63700.00K
11.00M
- 202600.00K
- 700.00K
- 66200.00K
174.40M
240.60M
152.80M
- 15600.00K
137.20M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CHD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$96.03
$98.30
$100.62
$103.00
$105.43