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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (XNYS:CMG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CMG
Name:
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC. (XNYS:CMG)
Sector:
186.74M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. Brian Niccol
Total Employees:
97,660
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 161.80% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC.(CMG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
1616.52
One Month Price Target:
$1628.29
Six Month Price Target :
$1687.15
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$1757.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$1611.58
Price Upper limit ($) :
$1625.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1533.23
This week:
$1430.28
This month :
$1244.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
45.38B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.76M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.25%
-11.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2,002.52
$1,822.25
$1,230.52
$1,410.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$1,763.58
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$1,725.10
$1,468.96
$1,507.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CMG
Sharpe Ratio:
4.75%
Comparison:
CMG, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 188.13% higher than the industry
& ratio is 108.35% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CMG
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.66%
Monthly returns:
2.62%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 96.34% above industry average
Classification:
CMG, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.45
Statistical test of Returns:
CMG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.57%
Weekly Volatility:
5.75%
Monthly Volatility:
11.50%
Yearly Volatility:
39.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -53.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.15%
Weekly VaR:
-11.52%
Monthly VaR:
-23.04%
How Much Can the price of
CMG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-79.82%
This translates to price declining to:
$1,311.49
This translates to price declining to:
$326.21
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CMG is a 62.63% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 39.32% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.34% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CMG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.047
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.481
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.574
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.953
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.712
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.695
Beta is -23.28% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is -3.94% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
29.41%
Sustainable growth rate is -3.15% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.194
Alpha is 439.80% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1234% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CMG
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is -2.94% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.32%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.00%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.00%
WACC is 33.71% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$281.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
21.03
Annual revenue growth rate is 173.24% above the industry average
EPS:
$24.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.97%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 540.36% higher than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$28.79
-
-
Debt per share
$119.98
EBITDA per share
$38.08
Valuation Analysis Today of
CMG
P/E Ratio:
60.52
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.62
P/E ratio is 97.64% higher than main peers & is 155.77% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $569.04
CMG is 184.08% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.73
Price to sales ratio is 75.80% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
21.03
Price to free cash flow: 56.15
Price to free cash flow ratio is 5.95% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
265.79%
Net income growth rate is 52.67% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
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-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
156.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
137.71%
Debt to assets ratio:
51.51%
Net debt to assets ratio:
45.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.32% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-12153.34
Interest coverage ratio is -68838.65% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.51%
Annual debt growth is -69% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.613
Statistical significance of correlation:
CMG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 18.65% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.049
Kurtosis
7.243
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.781
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CMG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
89%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.65%
Operating profit margin is 13.32% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
89%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.89%
Effective tax rate is 8.76% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
32.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is 9917.26% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -25.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
1.32
Current ratio is 17.09% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-0.3
Cash conversion cycle is -100.98% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 34.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
80.1K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
10.8K
Each employee generates -57% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
7.0K
Each employee generates -51% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.9K
Each employee generates -21% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
55.0K
Each employee generates -21% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CMG
COUPANG, INC. (XNYS:CPNG)
APTIV PLC (XNYS:APTV)
NIO INC. (XNYS:NIO)
AUTOZONE, INC. (XNYS:AZO)
XPENG INC. (XNYS:XPEV)
YUM! BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:YUM)
HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD. (XNYS:HMC)
D.R. HORTON, INC. (XNYS:DHI)
CARVANA CO. (XNYS:CVNA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�96%
Sell�17%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
7.83B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.09B
1.74B
-
599.15M
599.15M
-
286.39M
885.54M
851.00K
- 87.00K
213.93M
1.06B
833.72M
684.18M
843.50M
159.32M
684.18M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
71.67M
Differed Income Tax :
- 14024.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
23.59M
Change in Working Capital :
41.03M
Accounts Receivables:
10.39M
Other Working Capital:
21.76M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.35M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
282.90M
Investments in PP&E:
- 96162.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 118827.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
615.86M
240.38M
856.24M
140.00M
29.85M
70.40M
1.10B
4.93B
21.94M
-
333.09M
-
89.16M
5.37B
-
6.47B
168.91M
223.30M
-
132.42M
309.11M
833.74M
3.33B
40.51M
3.50B
-
4.33B
373.00K
4.09B
- 5159.0K
- 1948695.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.97B
2.13B
6.47B
573.47M
3.55B
2.9B
81.92M
-
- 133066.00K
-
-
- 263308.00K
-
- 86170.00K
- 349478.00K
147.00K
- 199495.00K
646.74M
846.23M
282.90M
- 96162.00K
186.74M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CMG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$1,766.97
$1,921.38
$2,089.28
$2,271.86
$2,470.39