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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Chimerix, Inc. (XNAS:CMRX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CMRX
Name:
CHIMERIX, INC. (XNAS:CMRX)
Sector:
- 23447.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Michael Sherman
Total Employees:
87
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 12.17% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHIMERIX, INC.(CMRX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.22
One Month Price Target:
$2.23
Six Month Price Target :
$2.3
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1.94
This week:
$1.59
This month :
$.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
182.26M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
87.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
69.08%
-60.85%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.52
$2.92
$0.92
$1.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$2.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.59
$1.71
$1.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CMRX
Sharpe Ratio:
3.46%
Comparison:
CMRX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 78.13% higher than the industry
& ratio is 51.96% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CMRX
Daily returns:
0.23%
Weekly returns:
1.13%
Monthly returns:
4.53%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 115.44% above industry average
Classification:
CMRX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
CMRX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.28%
Weekly Volatility:
14.05%
Monthly Volatility:
28.09%
Yearly Volatility:
97.32%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.86%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -54.45% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.67%
Weekly VaR:
-28.34%
Monthly VaR:
-56.68%
How Much Can the price of
CMRX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-48%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.16
This translates to price declining to:
$0.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CMRX is a 300.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 242.73% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 32.13% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CMRX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.137
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.609
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.22
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.732
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.879
Beta is 29.58% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -1.12% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.434
Alpha is 205.90% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2762% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CMRX
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is -0.80% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.14%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.14%
WACC is 16.65% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.07
Annual revenue growth rate is -114.76% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.16%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -98.36% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.03
EBITDA per share
-$1.15
Valuation Analysis Today of
CMRX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
84.82
-
-
CMRX is -102.13% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
347.98
Price to sales ratio is 759.13% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.07
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
40.35%
Net income growth rate is -42.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.72%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-62.14%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-45.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -91.83% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-25116
Interest coverage ratio is 21123.12% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -174% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 86.12%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.302
Statistical significance of correlation:
CMRX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -11.24% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.151
Kurtosis
36.577
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.278
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CMRX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-660%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-18017.53%
Operating profit margin is 4103.01% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-660%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-210.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is 267.05% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-153.53%
Return on assets (ROA) is 652.51% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
4.11
Current ratio is -49.21% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
6.4K
Each employee generates -100% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1154.8K
Each employee generates -400% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1156.2K
Each employee generates -1004% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 269.5K
Each employee generates -283% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
34.1K
Each employee generates -283% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 103.73%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2991.42% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CMRX
Cellectis SA (XNAS:CLLS)
SEASPINE HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:SPNE)
VBI Vaccines Inc. (XNAS:VBIV)
DBV Technologies SA (XNAS:DBVT)
Calliditas Therapeutics AB (XNAS:CALT)
ANAPTYSBIO, INC. (XNAS:ANAB)
CHINOOK THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KDNY)
ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:OSUR)
ALAUNOS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TCRT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
559.00K
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
114.00K
- 99.00K
81.00M
20.17M
20.17M
-
82.89M
184.05M
96.00K
4.00K
120.00K
- 100464.00K
- 100718.00K
- 100588.00K
- 100588.00K
-
- 100588.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.71M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2560.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
148.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 23447.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 5258.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
31.96M
21.42M
53.38M
-
3.41M
5.77M
62.55M
2.53M
-
-
-
-
439.00K
2.97M
-
65.52M
3.49M
-
-
-
11.72M
15.21M
2.26M
250.00K
2.51M
-
17.72M
87.00K
- 910363.00K
- 73.0K
958.15M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
61.70M
47.80M
65.52M
-
2.26M
- 29701.0K
58.73M
-
53.47M
- 14000.00K
-
-
-
540.00K
- 13460.00K
-
16.56M
31.96M
15.40M
- 23447.00K
-
- 23447.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CMRX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.40
$2.58
$2.78
$2.99
$3.22