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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Chevron Corporation (XNYS:CVX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CVX
Name:
CHEVRON CORPORATION (XNYS:CVX)
Sector:
6.10B
Industry:
Oil & Gas Integrated
CEO:
Mr. Michael Wirth
Total Employees:
42,595
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -60.57% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHEVRON CORPORATION(CVX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS INTEGRATED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
157.85
One Month Price Target:
$158.85
Six Month Price Target :
$163.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$169.89
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$157.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$158.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$149.12
This week:
$138.33
This month :
$118.82
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
307.59B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.96B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.74%
-22.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$198.33
$179.64
$117.37
$136.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$173.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$169.56
$142.10
$146.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CVX
Sharpe Ratio:
2.69%
Comparison:
CVX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -12.24% lower than the industry
& ratio is 17.88% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CVX
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.65%
Yearly returns:
19.62%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.62% above industry average
Classification:
CVX, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
CVX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.73%
Weekly Volatility:
6.11%
Monthly Volatility:
12.22%
Yearly Volatility:
42.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.73%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -36.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.53%
Weekly VaR:
-12.36%
Monthly VaR:
-24.73%
How Much Can the price of
CVX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-85.66%
This translates to price declining to:
$124.82
This translates to price declining to:
$22.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CVX is a 74.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 49.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.37% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CVX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.768
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.086
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.993
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.721
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.913
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.968
Beta is 17.30% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.962
Beta is 18.01% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.86%
Sustainable growth rate is -46.43% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.088
Alpha is -10.78% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 561% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CVX
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is 12.18% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.75%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.75%
WACC is 16.63% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$90.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.1
Annual revenue growth rate is 414.48% above the industry average
EPS:
$10.63
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
73.82%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 122.26% higher than the Oil & Gas Integrated industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$12.65
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 18.61%
Equity growth rate per share is 68.94% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$14.83
EBITDA per share
$23.77
Valuation Analysis Today of
CVX
P/E Ratio:
10.54
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.06
P/E ratio is 4.85% higher than main peers & is -27.36% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $154.31
CVX is 2.30% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $74.63
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $61.73
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.75
Price to sales ratio is -8.88% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.1
Price to free cash flow: 12.48
Price to free cash flow ratio is 15.26% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
4.42%
Net income growth rate is 788.35% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.39%
Dividend yeild: 3.50%
Previous Dividend: $1.42
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.42
Previous Dividend: $5.52
Expected next dividend best case: $1.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.37
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.32
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.82%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-18--$1.42
2021-11-17--$1.34
2021-05-18--$1.34
2022-02-15--$1.42
2021-08-18--$1.34
2021-02-16--$1.29
Dividend growth rate is -9.70% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.85%
Net debt to equity ratio:
12.08%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -84.29% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
71.59
Interest coverage ratio is 229.36% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-29.21%
Annual debt growth is 68% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.63%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.64
Statistical significance of correlation:
CVX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.584
Stock price is 9.57% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.584
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.058
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.092
Kurtosis
17.196
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.258
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CVX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
125%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.22%
Operating profit margin is -10.05% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
125%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.87%
Effective tax rate is 11.33% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is -10.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is 30.78% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.43
Current ratio is 180.75% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-7.5
Cash conversion cycle is -122.14% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
4.2M
Each employee generates 25% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 28% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
481.4K
Each employee generates 30% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
143.1K
Each employee generates 45% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.8M
Each employee generates 45% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CVX
EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION (XNYS:XOM)
RDS-B
RDS-A
TotalEnergies SE (XNYS:TTE)
CONOCOPHILLIPS (XNYS:COP)
BP
Equinor ASA (XNYS:EQNR)
Enbridge Inc. (XNYS:ENB)
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (XNYS:SNP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�42%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
176.84B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
121.75B
55.10B
-
-
3.99B
-
29.49B
33.48B
-
650.00M
17.43B
46.53B
21.62B
20.51B
28.52B
7.95B
20.51B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.65B
Differed Income Tax :
626.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 937000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1565000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
8.06B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
536.00M
Purchases of Investments:
- 2000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
11.67B
33.00M
11.70B
23.26B
6.53B
3.23B
44.71B
144.44B
4.37B
-
41.73B
-
13.79B
204.34B
-
249.05B
20.14B
314.00M
3.78B
-
10.75B
31.20B
29.02B
5.93B
70.75B
-
101.95B
1.83B
169.06B
- 3892000.0K
- 20780000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
155.23B
146.22B
248.17B
41.77B
29.33B
17.7B
2.00M
- 1201000.00K
- 665000.00K
- 2062000.00K
-
- 1300000.00K
- 2746000.00K
4.74B
- 1366000.00K
- 13000.00K
6.01B
12.81B
6.80B
8.06B
- 1960000.00K
6.10B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CVX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$201.35
$216.71
$233.24
$251.03
$270.17