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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cheniere Energy Partners Unt (XNYS:CQP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CQP
Name:
CHENIERE ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:CQP)
Sector:
713.00M
Industry:
Oil & Gas Midstream
CEO:
Mr. Jack Fusco
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHENIERE ENERGY PARTNERS UNT(CQP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS MIDSTREAM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.41
One Month Price Target:
$53.61
Six Month Price Target :
$54.63
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$55.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.21
Price Upper limit ($) :
$53.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$50.49
This week:
$46.88
This month :
$40.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
-
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.7%
-24.56%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$66.96
$60.70
$39.86
$46.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$58.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.33
$48.14
$49.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CQP
Sharpe Ratio:
2.69%
Comparison:
CQP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -6.08% lower than the industry
& ratio is 18.08% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CQP
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.63%
Yearly returns:
30.53%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -35.84% below industry average
Classification:
CQP, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
CQP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.70%
Weekly Volatility:
6.05%
Monthly Volatility:
12.09%
Yearly Volatility:
41.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.02%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 85.64% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.47%
Weekly VaR:
-12.23%
Monthly VaR:
-24.47%
How Much Can the price of
CQP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-84.76%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.35
This translates to price declining to:
$8.14
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CQP is a 72.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.96% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -33.27% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CQP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.52
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.503
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.485
Beta is -54.04% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.441
Beta is -52.65% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.118
Alpha is -32.82% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 749% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CQP
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -39.91% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.74%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.74%
WACC is -49.92% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
34.92
Annual revenue growth rate is -95.96% below industry average
EPS:
$2.24
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1220.31% lower than the Oil & Gas Midstream industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.02
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -6.10%
Equity growth rate per share is 209.31% higher than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
CQP
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.29
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $40.13
CQP is 33.11% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $245.23
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $204.99
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.66
Price to sales ratio is -4.16% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
34.92
Price to free cash flow: 13.28
Price to free cash flow ratio is 94.10% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-7.85%
Net income growth rate is -95.41% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 27.39%
Dividend yeild: 5.79%
Previous Dividend: $1.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.05
Previous Dividend: $3.10
Expected next dividend best case: $1.15
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.95
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.69
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.22%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-04--$1.05
2021-11-04--$0.68
2021-05-05--$0.66
2022-02-04--$0.70
2021-08-05--$0.67
2021-02-05--$0.66
Dividend growth rate is -99.87% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.00%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
87.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
82.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 26.57% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.46
Interest coverage ratio is -34.69% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.28%
Annual debt growth is -215% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.395
Statistical significance of correlation:
CQP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.464
Stock price is -14.96% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.464
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.046
Kurtosis
12.555
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.115
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CQP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
129%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.31%
Operating profit margin is 4.92% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
129%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.00%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.34%
Return on assets (ROA) is 115.97% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
8.2x
Current Ratio:
1.52
Current ratio is -11.51% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
23.9
Cash conversion cycle is -59.77% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CQP
Altria Group, Inc. (XNYS:MO)
CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. (XNYS:LNG)
NEXGEN ENERGY LTD. (XNYS:NXE)
Energy Fuels Inc. (XNYS:UUUU)
Denison Mines Corp. (XNYS:DNN)
URANIUM ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:UEC)
CENTRUS ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:LEU)
PINEDALE ENERGY LIMITED (XTSX:MCF.H)
RILEY EXPLORATION PERMIAN, INC. (XNYS:REPX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.80B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.54B
3.26B
-
99.00M
99.00M
-
850.00M
949.00M
-
817.00M
571.00M
2.83B
2.30B
1.44B
1.44B
-
1.44B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
153.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 39000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
14.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 64000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
527.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
800.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.16B
-
1.16B
724.00M
149.00M
405.00M
2.43B
17.01B
-
-
-
-
213.00M
17.22B
-
19.66B
24.00M
8.00M
-
116.00M
1.45B
1.60B
17.27B
3.02B
20.29B
-
21.89B
-
-
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
8.49B
-
21.89B
-
17.28B
16.1B
-
- 87000.00K
- 87000.00K
-
-
-
- 395000.00K
-
- 395000.00K
-
318.00M
1.29B
974.00M
800.00M
- 87000.00K
713.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CQP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.74
$46.80
$48.94
$51.19
$53.53