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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (XNYS:LNG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LNG
Name:
CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. (XNYS:LNG)
Sector:
2.48B
Industry:
Oil & Gas Midstream
CEO:
Mr. Jack Fusco
Total Employees:
1,550
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -41.42% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHENIERE ENERGY, INC.(LNG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS MIDSTREAM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
162.36
One Month Price Target:
$163.38
Six Month Price Target :
$168.49
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$174.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$161.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$163.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$153.86
This week:
$143.36
This month :
$124.36
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
39.57B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
249.78M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.31%
-18.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$201.72
$183.16
$123.00
$141.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$177.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$173.16
$147.55
$151.56
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LNG
Sharpe Ratio:
6.54%
Comparison:
LNG, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 128.18% higher than the industry
& ratio is 186.86% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LNG
Daily returns:
0.18%
Weekly returns:
0.91%
Monthly returns:
3.63%
Yearly returns:
30.53%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 42.48% above industry average
Classification:
LNG, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.19
Statistical test of Returns:
LNG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.64%
Weekly Volatility:
5.90%
Monthly Volatility:
11.79%
Yearly Volatility:
40.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 4.78% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.23%
Weekly VaR:
-11.70%
Monthly VaR:
-23.41%
How Much Can the price of
LNG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-81.09%
This translates to price declining to:
$132.14
This translates to price declining to:
$30.71
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LNG is a 65.21% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.53% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -34.93% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LNG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.915
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.294
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.22
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.555
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.546
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.556
Beta is -27.84% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.441
Beta is -22.08% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
405.99%
Sustainable growth rate is 463.72% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.327
Alpha is 86.50% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2079% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LNG
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is -16.74% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-2.12%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.62%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.65%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.65%
WACC is -37.49% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$81.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-32.21
Annual revenue growth rate is -34.96% below industry average
EPS:
-$14.19
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$12.32
-
-
Debt per share
$121.65
EBITDA per share
-$8.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
LNG
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
7.04
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
LNG is -163.87% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.39
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.13
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2
Price to sales ratio is -27.81% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-32.21
Price to free cash flow: 13.17
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-581.76%
Net income growth rate is 239.87% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -2.39%
Dividend yeild: 0.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.33
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.33
Previous Dividend: $0.99
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-09--$0.33
2021-11-02--$0.33
--$0.00
2022-02-04--$0.33
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-819.06%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-767.90%
Debt to assets ratio:
75.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
71.12%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 9.29% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1.48
Interest coverage ratio is -127.89% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.92%
Annual debt growth is -53% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.471
Statistical significance of correlation:
LNG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.464
Stock price is 1.37% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.464
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.053
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.081
Kurtosis
6.726
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.707
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LNG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-28%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-11.74%
Operating profit margin is -157.80% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-28%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.40%
Effective tax rate is 39.22% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
97.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is 73.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-8.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is -364.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.1x
Current Ratio:
1.24
Current ratio is -27.93% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35.1
Cash conversion cycle is -40.74% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.19%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
13.1M
Each employee generates 111% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1365.8K
Each employee generates -494% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 2323.2K
Each employee generates 740% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates 276% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
22.2M
Each employee generates 276% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LNG
SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:SCI)
CHENIERE ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:CQP)
NEXGEN ENERGY LTD. (XNYS:NXE)
Energy Fuels Inc. (XNYS:UUUU)
Denison Mines Corp. (XNYS:DNN)
URANIUM ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:UEC)
CENTRUS ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:LEU)
PINEDALE ENERGY LIMITED (XTSX:MCF.H)
RILEY EXPLORATION PERMIAN, INC. (XNYS:REPX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�25%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
20.26B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
20.77B
- 511000.00K
-
351.00M
351.00M
-
1.51B
1.86B
-
1.43B
1.05B
- 2117000.00K
- 2378000.00K
- 3601000.00K
- 3910000.00K
- 993000.00K
- 3601000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
271.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 206000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
43.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 101000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
202.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.43B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.66B
Investments in PP&E:
- 178000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.49B
-
2.49B
1.46B
571.00M
1.19B
5.71B
32.29B
77.00M
-
-
1.45B
534.00M
34.35B
-
40.06B
167.00M
589.00M
-
120.00M
3.73B
4.61B
30.39B
6.32B
36.71B
-
41.31B
1.00M
- 6967000.00K
-
3.26B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
22.63B
- 3710000.00K
37.60B
-
30.98B
28.5B
-
-
- 178000.00K
- 1615000.00K
-
- 25000.00K
- 86000.00K
338.00M
- 1388000.00K
-
1.09B
2.91B
1.82B
2.66B
- 178000.00K
2.48B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LNG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$127.79
$137.44
$147.81
$158.96
$170.95