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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Chemocentryx, Inc. (XNAS:CCXI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCXI
Name:
CHEMOCENTRYX, INC. (XNAS:CCXI)
Sector:
8.61M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Thomas Schall
Total Employees:
178
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 25.58% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHEMOCENTRYX, INC.(CCXI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.42
One Month Price Target:
$51.78
Six Month Price Target :
$53.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$55.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$52.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.25
This week:
$35.4
This month :
$19.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.67B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
71.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
109.17%
-45.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$84.62
$69.06
$18.22
$33.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$63.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.67
$38.81
$42.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCXI
Sharpe Ratio:
5.67%
Comparison:
CCXI, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 191.77% higher than the industry
& ratio is 148.90% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCXI
Daily returns:
0.40%
Weekly returns:
2.02%
Monthly returns:
8.10%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 285.33% above industry average
Classification:
CCXI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
CCXI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.98%
Weekly Volatility:
15.61%
Monthly Volatility:
31.23%
Yearly Volatility:
108.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.38% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.93%
Weekly VaR:
-31.16%
Monthly VaR:
-62.32%
How Much Can the price of
CCXI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-50%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.48
This translates to price declining to:
$7.71
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCXI is a 339.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 276.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 46.86% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCXI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.197
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.693
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.123
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.884
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.146
Beta is 8.63% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 8.05% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.855
Alpha is 502.91% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 5444% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCXI
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is 5.76% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-3.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
-3.03%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-3.03%
WACC is 1.98% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
14.18
Annual revenue growth rate is -107.51% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.00
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 145.23% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.71
EBITDA per share
-$1.95
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCXI
P/E Ratio:
53.48
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
69.07
P/E ratio is -22.57% lower than main peers & is -40.39% lower than the industry
-
CCXI is -128.65% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
133.62
Price to sales ratio is 229.89% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
14.18
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
163.17%
Net income growth rate is 131.18% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
12.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
50.02
Interest coverage ratio is -142.27% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.261
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCXI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -23.33% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.056
Kurtosis
138.859
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
8.822
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCXI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
185%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-505.55%
Operating profit margin is 17.93% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
185%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-54.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is -5.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-31.93%
Return on assets (ROA) is 56.52% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
5.11
Current ratio is -36.87% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-7895
Cash conversion cycle is -1581.14% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.70%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
154.3K
Each employee generates -90% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 783.1K
Each employee generates -303% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 790.2K
Each employee generates -718% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
48.4K
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
499.0K
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 6.56%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -282.81% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCXI
HARPOON THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:HARP)
Immatics NV (XNAS:IMTX)
AKOYA BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:AKYA)
ANAPTYSBIO, INC. (XNAS:ANAB)
ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC (XNAS:ADAP)
SILENCE THERAPEUTICS PLC (XNAS:SLN)
DBV Technologies SA (XNAS:DBVT)
BIOXCEL THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:BTAI)
VBI Vaccines Inc. (XNAS:VBIV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
27.46M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
507.00K
7.56M
77.05M
65.31M
88.73M
-
302.00K
166.08M
776.00K
- 2787.00K
4.04M
- 139400.00K
- 138825.00K
- 140652.00K
- 140652.00K
-
- 140652.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.02M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
9.43M
Change in Working Capital :
35.55M
Accounts Receivables:
- 2356.00K
Other Working Capital:
45.04M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.44M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
8.83M
Investments in PP&E:
- 224.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 91498.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
40.58M
300.02M
340.60M
2.81M
2.90M
5.32M
351.63M
56.07M
-
-
31.24M
-
1.51M
88.82M
-
440.45M
5.42M
22.04M
-
18.71M
22.63M
68.81M
50.62M
217.00K
112.93M
-
181.73M
71.00K
- 655705.00K
- 1855.0K
916.21M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
166.59M
258.72M
440.45M
331.26M
72.66M
32.1M
70.39M
-
- 21337.00K
-
-
-
-
3.11M
3.11M
-
- 9401.00K
41.66M
51.06M
8.83M
- 224.00K
8.61M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCXI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$55.89
$60.57
$65.63
$71.12
$77.07