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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Chemed Corporation (XNYS:CHE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CHE
Name:
CHEMED CORPORATION (XNYS:CHE)
Sector:
88.44M
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Kevin McNamara
Total Employees:
14,137
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 249.46% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHEMED CORPORATION(CHE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
471
One Month Price Target:
$472.35
Six Month Price Target :
$479.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$487.23
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$469.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$472.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$451.84
This week:
$428.15
This month :
$385.29
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.01B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.98%
-13.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$559.94
$519.18
$382.06
$422.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$505.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$497.21
$435.98
$444.79
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CHE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.13%
Comparison:
CHE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -49.16% lower than the industry
& is -50.41% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CHE
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.63%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -67.23% below industry average
Classification:
CHE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
CHE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.00%
Weekly Volatility:
4.46%
Monthly Volatility:
8.93%
Yearly Volatility:
30.93%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.97%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -51.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.07%
Weekly VaR:
-9.10%
Monthly VaR:
-18.20%
How Much Can the price of
CHE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.04%
This translates to price declining to:
$396.90
This translates to price declining to:
$174.10
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CHE is a 28.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 10.03% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -40.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CHE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.51
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.517
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.731
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.407
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.622
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.688
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.046
Beta is -50.94% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is -51.94% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
32.85%
Sustainable growth rate is -8.72% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.009
Alpha is -93.02% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 56% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CHE
Equity cost of capital:
0.067
Equity cost of capital is -36.30% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.66%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.66%
WACC is -24.22% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$143.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
10.53
Annual revenue growth rate is -49.32% below industry average
EPS:
$17.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -48.29% lower than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$16.24
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 20.89%
Equity growth rate per share is -292.96% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$15.37
EBITDA per share
$27.71
Valuation Analysis Today of
CHE
P/E Ratio:
26.2
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
168.28
P/E ratio is -84.43% lower than main peers & is -62.77% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,202.49
CHE is -60.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $72.86
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.73
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.28
Price to sales ratio is 54.74% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
10.53
Price to free cash flow: 29.00
Price to free cash flow ratio is -14.03% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
33.89%
Net income growth rate is -77.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.99%
Dividend yeild: 0.31%
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.36
Previous Dividend: $1.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.37
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.34
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.21%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 24/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 15/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 16/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-25--$0.36
2021-11-12--$0.36
2021-05-26--$0.34
2022-02-25--$0.36
2021-08-13--$0.36
2021-02-26--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -455.73% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.37%
Net debt to equity ratio:
37.47%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.55%
Net debt to assets ratio:
19.13%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
184.41
Interest coverage ratio is 826.11% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
138.94%
Annual debt growth is 37% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 28.99%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.599
Statistical significance of correlation:
CHE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is 38.61% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.004
Kurtosis
7.503
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.279
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CHE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
145%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.43%
Operating profit margin is -330.00% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
145%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.92%
Effective tax rate is 9.57% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
40.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is 124.79% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
20.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is 368.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.66
Current ratio is -64.11% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
8.1
Cash conversion cycle is -70.03% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
151.5K
Each employee generates -57% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.2K
Each employee generates -47% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
18.9K
Each employee generates -35% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.3K
Each employee generates -9% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
79.3K
Each employee generates -9% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CHE
GLOBUS MEDICAL, INC. (XNYS:GMED)
HOA BINH RUBBER JOINT STOCK COMPANY (XSTC:HRC)
ENVISTA HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNYS:NVST)
ENCOMPASS HEALTH CORPORATION (XNYS:EHC)
SIGNIFY HEALTH, INC. (XNYS:SGFY)
INVITAE CORPORATION (XNYS:NVTA)
Canopy Growth Corporation (XNAS:CGC)
PERRIGO COMPANY PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:PRGO)
PENUMBRA, INC. (XNYS:PEN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.37B
776.91M
-
361.43M
361.43M
-
59.76M
421.18M
357.00K
2.24M
59.48M
413.08M
351.97M
267.32M
351.35M
84.04M
267.32M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.66M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4047.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
17.62M
Accounts Receivables:
19.61M
Other Working Capital:
24.27M
Other Non-Cash Items:
8.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
101.09M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1650.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
18.16M
-
18.16M
117.32M
10.54M
38.73M
184.75M
326.57M
579.70M
106.37M
100.14M
-
8.22M
1.12B
-
1.31B
64.71M
38.86M
15.39M
-
176.09M
279.65M
229.12M
111.14M
359.40M
-
639.05M
36.58M
2.03B
-
- 1399032.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.79B
666.71M
1.31B
-
267.98M
249.8M
-
- 12298.00K
- 13948.00K
- 93551.00K
-
- 32687.00K
- 5322.00K
29.68M
- 101877.00K
-
- 14735.00K
18.16M
32.90M
101.09M
- 12649.00K
88.44M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CHE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$489.67
$1,234.39
$1,276.93
$1,320.95
$1,366.48