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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Chase Corporation (XNYS:CCF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCF
Name:
CHASE CORPORATION (XNYS:CCF)
Sector:
5.41M
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Adam Chase
Total Employees:
661
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -152.61% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHASE CORPORATION(CCF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
86.83
One Month Price Target:
$87.14
Six Month Price Target :
$88.71
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$90.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$86.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$87.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$81.43
This week:
$74.75
This month :
$62.66
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
818.09M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
9.47M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.7%
-22.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$111.93
$100.53
$61.73
$73.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$96.82
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$94.39
$76.80
$79.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCF
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.53%
Comparison:
CCF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -124.92% lower than the industry
& is -123.15% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCF
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.04%
Monthly returns:
-0.14%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -106.96% below industry average
Classification:
CCF, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
CCF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.03%
Weekly Volatility:
6.77%
Monthly Volatility:
13.54%
Yearly Volatility:
46.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.22%
Weekly VaR:
-13.92%
Monthly VaR:
-27.83%
How Much Can the price of
CCF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$65.38
This translates to price declining to:
$13.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCF is a 96.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 68.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.95% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.527
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.746
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.633
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.787
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.999
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.281
Beta is -49.71% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is -44.69% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.26%
Sustainable growth rate is -64.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.093
Alpha is -168.97% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -590% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCF
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is -32.04% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.43%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.37%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.37%
WACC is -10.43% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.39
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.4
Annual revenue growth rate is 57.17% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.83%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 984.35% higher than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.19
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.26%
Equity growth rate per share is -97.55% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.83
EBITDA per share
$7.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCF
P/E Ratio:
18.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.69
P/E ratio is -36.16% lower than main peers & is -51.10% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $172.69
CCF is -49.72% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.68
Price to sales ratio is -2.84% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.4
Price to free cash flow: 20.71
Price to free cash flow ratio is -54.77% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
3.56%
Net income growth rate is -106.43% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 2.99%
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.00
Previous Dividend: $2.60
Expected next dividend best case: $1.46
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.54
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.87
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 12.50%
Expected next dividend payment date: 03/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/02/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 14/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 12/09/2021
Previous dividend record date: 30/11/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 16/11/2021
Dividend History:
2021-11-29--$1.00
2019-11-25--$0.80
--$0.00
2020-11-25--$0.80
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -39.14% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.28%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-33.91%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-28.49%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
222.08
Interest coverage ratio is 956.16% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
12.62%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.553
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is -4.54% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.028
Kurtosis
26.536
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.426
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
154%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
18.73%
Operating profit margin is -106.65% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
154%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.54%
Effective tax rate is 31.07% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.75%
Return on equity (ROE) is -55.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.71%
Return on assets (ROA) is 307.94% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
5.88
Current ratio is 119.43% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
41.3
Cash conversion cycle is -33.00% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 18.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.77%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
464.0K
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
112.2K
Each employee generates 13% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
66.2K
Each employee generates 108% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
8.2K
Each employee generates -122% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
283.3K
Each employee generates -122% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 1.22%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -88.30% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCF
Silvercorp Metals Inc. (XNYS:SVM)
NEW GOLD INC. (XNYS:NGD)
SilverCrest Metals Inc. (XNYS:SILV)
Taseko Mines Limited (XNYS:TGB)
Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. (XNAS:BIOX)
Sierra Metals Inc. (XNYS:SMTS)
MAG SILVER CORP. (XNYS:MAG)
ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP. (XNYS:AXU)
METALLA ROYALTY & STREAMING LTD. (XNYS:MTA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/28/22
Revenue:
306.68M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
188.33M
118.34M
4.07M
-
54.01M
-
1.53M
59.60M
-
334.00K
16.61M
74.18M
57.44M
43.77M
57.24M
13.47M
43.77M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.00M
Differed Income Tax :
34.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
775.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 9063.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.27M
Other Working Capital:
- 2254.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
428.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.90M
Investments in PP&E:
- 496.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
11/30/21
2022
Q1
124.23M
-
124.23M
43.73M
47.08M
6.26M
221.29M
33.70M
97.12M
43.36M
-
5.11M
7.94M
187.24M
-
408.53M
17.43M
-
348.00K
-
20.19M
37.62M
7.84M
16.47M
27.64M
-
65.26M
947.00K
335.90M
- 13301.0K
19.73M
November 30, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
247.94M
343.28M
408.53M
-
7.84M
- 116393.0K
-
- 121.00K
- 617.00K
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 481.00K
4.81M
124.23M
119.43M
5.90M
- 496.00K
5.41M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$116.12
$121.15
$126.39
$131.86
$137.57