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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Charter Communications, Inc. (XNAS:CHTR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CHTR
Name:
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:CHTR)
Sector:
1.80B
Industry:
Entertainment
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Rutledge
Total Employees:
93,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 64.14% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC.(CHTR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
407.14
One Month Price Target:
$409.24
Six Month Price Target :
$419.71
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$432.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$405.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$408.51
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$390.61
This week:
$370.17
This month :
$333.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
65.41B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
160.65M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.85%
-14.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$483.91
$449.01
$330.37
$365.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$437.66
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$430.21
$376.53
$384.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CHTR
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.44%
Comparison:
CHTR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -238.93% lower than the industry
& is -119.46% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CHTR
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
0.00%
Yearly returns:
6.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -99.72% below industry average
Classification:
CHTR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.88
Statistical test of Returns:
CHTR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.98%
Weekly Volatility:
4.42%
Monthly Volatility:
8.84%
Yearly Volatility:
30.63%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.35%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 19.04% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.06%
Weekly VaR:
-9.08%
Monthly VaR:
-18.16%
How Much Can the price of
CHTR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-62.91%
This translates to price declining to:
$341.74
This translates to price declining to:
$151.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CHTR is a 28.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 9.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -42.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CHTR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.92
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.652
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.922
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.127
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.603
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.559
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.638
Beta is 43.97% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.34
Beta is -31.40% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
26.07%
Sustainable growth rate is -26.81% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.094
Alpha is 69.94% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -600% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CHTR
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -23.38% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.31%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.40%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.40%
WACC is -37.28% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$325.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.1
Annual revenue growth rate is 39.26% above the industry average
EPS:
$27.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
47.66%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 50.71% higher than the Entertainment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$47.87
-
-
Debt per share
$564.43
EBITDA per share
$121.75
Valuation Analysis Today of
CHTR
P/E Ratio:
13.07
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
56.6
P/E ratio is -76.90% lower than main peers & is -51.63% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $746.36
CHTR is -45.45% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.25
Price to sales ratio is -52.81% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.1
Price to free cash flow: 8.51
Price to free cash flow ratio is -50.12% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
332.42%
Net income growth rate is -261.34% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
751.90%
Net debt to equity ratio:
771.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
62.99%
Net debt to assets ratio:
64.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -11.51% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.75
Interest coverage ratio is -93.61% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
10.66%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.15%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.564
Statistical significance of correlation:
CHTR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.508
Stock price is 11.00% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.508
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.046
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.053
Kurtosis
6.673
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.522
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CHTR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
163%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.45%
Operating profit margin is 224.96% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
163%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.14%
Effective tax rate is 10.47% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
41.87%
Return on equity (ROE) is -18.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is -18.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.7x
Current Ratio:
0.4
Current ratio is -75.81% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
9.8
Cash conversion cycle is -79.69% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.91%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
558.8K
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
208.7K
Each employee generates -40% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
53.9K
Each employee generates -53% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
19.2K
Each employee generates -54918% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.5M
Each employee generates -54918% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CHTR
AIRBNB, INC. (XNAS:ABNB)
T-MOBILE US, INC. (XNAS:TMUS)
NETEASE, INC. (XNAS:NTES)
ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:ZM)
ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. (XNAS:ATVI)
VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:VOD)
ELECTRONIC ARTS INC. (XNAS:EA)
MATCH GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MTCH)
LIBERTY BROADBAND CORPORATION (XNAS:LBRDK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�50%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
52.36B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
31.08B
21.28B
-
98.00M
924.00M
826.00M
9.10B
10.02B
-
4.11B
9.20B
19.56B
11.23B
5.05B
6.99B
1.20B
5.05B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.29B
Differed Income Tax :
38.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
147.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 197000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
49.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 24000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.65B
Investments in PP&E:
- 1857000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.43B
-
2.43B
2.53B
-
555.00M
5.52B
34.17B
29.56B
71.05B
-
-
3.65B
138.43B
-
143.95B
706.00M
4.82B
836.00M
482.00M
7.92B
13.93B
90.68B
4.33B
114.08B
-
128.00B
-
- 11472000.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
41.10B
12.06B
140.06B
-
95.50B
93.1B
-
70.00M
- 1787000.00K
- 2954000.00K
-
- 3333000.00K
-
6.26B
- 30000.00K
-
1.83B
2.43B
601.00M
3.65B
- 1847000.00K
1.80B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CHTR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$434.45
$1,040.86
$1,105.16
$1,173.42
$1,245.91