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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Chart Industries, Inc. (XNYS:GTLS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GTLS
Name:
CHART INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:GTLS)
Sector:
- 34800.00K
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Ms. Jillian Evanko
Total Employees:
4,771
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 7.08% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CHART INDUSTRIES, INC.(GTLS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
182.45
One Month Price Target:
$183.98
Six Month Price Target :
$191.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$200.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$181.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$184.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$166.29
This week:
$146.33
This month :
$110.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
36.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
34.97%
-34.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$257.29
$222.15
$107.61
$142.75
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$210.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$203.21
$154.09
$161.69
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GTLS
Sharpe Ratio:
5.88%
Comparison:
GTLS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 210.53% higher than the industry
& ratio is 158.13% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GTLS
Daily returns:
0.27%
Weekly returns:
1.35%
Monthly returns:
5.41%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 299.19% above industry average
Classification:
GTLS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.85
Statistical test of Returns:
GTLS has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.44%
Weekly Volatility:
9.93%
Monthly Volatility:
19.87%
Yearly Volatility:
68.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.30%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.24% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.85%
Weekly VaR:
-19.80%
Monthly VaR:
-39.60%
How Much Can the price of
GTLS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$124.23
This translates to price declining to:
$27.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GTLS is a 179.49% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 139.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 62.40% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GTLS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.898
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.271
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.148
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.211
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.186
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.471
Beta is 2.05% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is 17.15% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
19.38%
Sustainable growth rate is 30.19% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.514
Alpha is 1090.30% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3274% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GTLS
Equity cost of capital:
0.134
Equity cost of capital is 12.62% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.27%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.32%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.05%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.05%
WACC is -74.62% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$37.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.1
Annual revenue growth rate is -70.98% below industry average
EPS:
$1.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.67%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -45.08% lower than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$17.39
EBITDA per share
$3.80
Valuation Analysis Today of
GTLS
P/E Ratio:
150.34
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
87.74
P/E ratio is 71.35% higher than main peers & is 446.42% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $29.16
GTLS is 525.58% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.83
Price to sales ratio is 16.42% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.1
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-41.46%
Net income growth rate is -3180.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
39.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
49.31%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
25.90%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.71
Interest coverage ratio is -40.02% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
27.50%
Annual debt growth is -63% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 27.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.56
Statistical significance of correlation:
GTLS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is -11.79% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.037
Kurtosis
15.083
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.359
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GTLS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
94%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.76%
Operating profit margin is -123.79% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
94%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.66%
Effective tax rate is 15.93% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.70%
Return on equity (ROE) is -19.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.42%
Return on assets (ROA) is -69.83% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.26
Current ratio is -58.22% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
30.2
Cash conversion cycle is -50.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.55%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
289.9K
Each employee generates -93% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.2K
Each employee generates -96% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
9.2K
Each employee generates -98% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 7.3K
Each employee generates -114% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
455.9K
Each employee generates -114% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GTLS
ROCKET LAB USA, INC. (XNAS:RKLB)
JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION (XNAS:JBLU)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAL)
STERICYCLE, INC. (XNAS:SRCL)
ANDAW
FRANKLIN ELECTRIC CO., INC. (XNAS:FELE)
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CWST)
TuSimple Holdings Inc (XNAS:TSP)
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED (XNAS:ROLL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.38B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.06B
324.00M
-
-
204.00M
-
40.20M
244.20M
-
11.90M
71.20M
139.30M
79.70M
43.70M
57.70M
12.50M
43.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.50M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 60800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 17200.00K
Other Working Capital:
31.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.50M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 22200.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 800.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 3900.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
99.70M
-
99.70M
379.00M
350.60M
81.50M
910.80M
412.40M
991.30M
544.70M
178.90M
-
47.80M
2.18B
-
3.09B
185.10M
261.80M
6.30M
177.90M
96.80M
721.60M
637.00M
38.60M
734.90M
-
1.46B
400.00K
888.40M
- 27700.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.30B
1.62B
3.08B
-
898.80M
799.1M
-
- 12800.00K
- 17500.00K
- 235900.00K
-
-
-
251.80M
15.90M
1.30M
- 22500.00K
99.90M
122.40M
- 22200.00K
- 12600.00K
- 34800.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GTLS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$189.69
$208.82
$229.89
$253.08
$278.61