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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ceva, Inc (XNAS:CEVA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CEVA
Name:
CEVA, INC (XNAS:CEVA)
Sector:
8.92M
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Mr. Gideon Wertheizer
Total Employees:
476
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -184.69% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CEVA, INC(CEVA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.67
One Month Price Target:
$27.84
Six Month Price Target :
$28.68
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$27.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.73
This week:
$23.34
This month :
$19.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
646.30M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
23.23M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.3%
-18.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.66
$32.53
$18.68
$22.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.31
$24.14
$25.03
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CEVA
Sharpe Ratio:
1.67%
Comparison:
CEVA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -45.95% lower than the industry
& is -26.58% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CEVA
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.33%
Monthly returns:
1.33%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -50.07% below industry average
Classification:
CEVA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.79
Statistical test of Returns:
CEVA has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.44%
Weekly Volatility:
7.70%
Monthly Volatility:
15.40%
Yearly Volatility:
53.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.19%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -36.35% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.00%
Weekly VaR:
-15.66%
Monthly VaR:
-31.32%
How Much Can the price of
CEVA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.22
This translates to price declining to:
$4.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CEVA is a 121.08% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 89.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.99% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CEVA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.09
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.011
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.43
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.084
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.318
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.77
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.169
Beta is -6.66% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is -22.65% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.053
Alpha is -72.15% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 339% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CEVA
Equity cost of capital:
0.106
Equity cost of capital is -17.08% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.84%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.84%
WACC is 0.28% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.67
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.31
Annual revenue growth rate is 73.49% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
150.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 188.08% higher than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.36
-
-
Debt per share
$0.20
EBITDA per share
$0.52
Valuation Analysis Today of
CEVA
P/E Ratio:
994.61
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
84.86
P/E ratio is 1072.09% higher than main peers & is 2297.99% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $3.73
CEVA is 641.25% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.88
Price to sales ratio is -39.95% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.31
Price to free cash flow: 77.09
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-33.84%
Net income growth rate is -40.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-11.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
42.85
Interest coverage ratio is 30.70% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.86%
Annual debt growth is -104% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.621
Statistical significance of correlation:
CEVA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is -1.03% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.058
Kurtosis
4.423
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.095
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CEVA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
337%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.03%
Operating profit margin is -82.88% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
337%
Effective Tax Rate:
64.70%
Effective tax rate is 328.75% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is -97.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.70%
Return on assets (ROA) is -94.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
4.84
Current ratio is 19.12% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
49.9
Cash conversion cycle is -9.57% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
145.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
276.7K
Each employee generates -55% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
25.4K
Each employee generates -89% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
4.9K
Each employee generates -97% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.7K
Each employee generates -33% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
289.4K
Each employee generates -33% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 16.92%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 19.52% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CEVA
VUZIX CORPORATION (XNAS:VUZI)
ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:IMOS)
NETGEAR, INC. (XNAS:NTGR)
KAROOOOO LTD. (XNAS:KARO)
OPERA LIMITED (XNAS:OPRA)
NLIGHT, INC. (XNAS:LASR)
PC CONNECTION, INC. (XNAS:CNXN)
SIMULATIONS PLUS, INC. (XNAS:SLP)
AGILYSYS, INC. (XNAS:AGYS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
131.70M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
20.85M
110.85M
75.12M
15.05M
27.53M
12.48M
2.88M
105.54M
652.00K
282.00K
5.20M
12.08M
5.31M
2.33M
6.60M
4.27M
2.33M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.95M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.39M
Change in Working Capital :
4.78M
Accounts Receivables:
3.94M
Other Working Capital:
- 921.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.41M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
9.82M
Investments in PP&E:
- 909.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 8789.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
39.78M
122.60M
162.38M
23.51M
-
11.42M
197.30M
16.24M
74.78M
13.44M
1.79M
17.50M
13.99M
137.74M
-
335.04M
3.18M
3.15M
-
8.73M
25.73M
40.79M
4.71M
11.47M
16.17M
-
56.96M
23.00K
53.76M
- 2438.0K
226.74M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
126.39M
278.08M
335.04M
124.39M
7.86M
- 31922.0K
4.89M
-
- 4813.00K
-
-
-
-
1.72M
1.72M
- 106.00K
6.63M
39.78M
33.15M
9.82M
- 909.00K
8.92M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CEVA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.85
$85.15
$91.39
$98.09
$105.28