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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cerus Corporation (XNAS:CERS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CERS
Name:
CERUS CORPORATION (XNAS:CERS)
Sector:
- 21569.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. William Greenman
Total Employees:
294
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -650.89% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CERUS CORPORATION(CERS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3.92
One Month Price Target:
$3.94
Six Month Price Target :
$4.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$4.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.9
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.95
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.61
This week:
$3.23
This month :
$2.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
695.97M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
177.09M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.66%
-23.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.35
$4.69
$2.49
$3.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.34
$3.36
$3.50
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CERS
Sharpe Ratio:
1.77%
Comparison:
CERS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 16.95% higher than the industry
& is -22.29% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CERS
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.39%
Monthly returns:
1.55%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 20.81% above industry average
Classification:
CERS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
CERS has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.86%
Weekly Volatility:
8.64%
Monthly Volatility:
17.28%
Yearly Volatility:
59.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.86%
Weekly VaR:
-17.58%
Monthly VaR:
-35.15%
How Much Can the price of
CERS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.74
This translates to price declining to:
$0.59
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CERS is a 148.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 112.55% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.10% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CERS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.825
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.166
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.595
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.233
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.82
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.981
Beta is 15.65% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is 6.59% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.076
Alpha is 55.27% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 486% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CERS
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is 4.60% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.76%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.76%
WACC is 9.05% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.98
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.63
Annual revenue growth rate is -81.65% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-14.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -224.26% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.40
EBITDA per share
-$0.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
CERS
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
37.42
-
-
CERS is -105.55% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.01
Price to sales ratio is -56.89% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.63
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-24.14%
Net income growth rate is -124.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
90.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
63.17%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
22.61%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -16.77% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-7.57
Interest coverage ratio is -156.75% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
30.94%
Annual debt growth is -87% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.51
Statistical significance of correlation:
CERS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 9.17% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.075
Kurtosis
4.364
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.119
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CERS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
237%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-24.48%
Operating profit margin is 43.35% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
237%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.61%
Effective tax rate is -101.11% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-61.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is 531.92% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-22.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 557.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.59
Current ratio is -59.90% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-96.7
Cash conversion cycle is -273.29% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-13.06%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
588.3K
Each employee generates 56% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 137.3K
Each employee generates -2294% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 167.4K
Each employee generates 463% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 73.4K
Each employee generates 416% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
167.0K
Each employee generates 416% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -1.12%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 751.30% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CERS
Aligos Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:ALGS)
COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CHRS)
LEMAITRE VASCULAR, INC. (XNAS:LMAT)
PERSONALIS, INC. (XNAS:PSNL)
ZOGENIX, INC. (XNAS:ZGNX)
PHATHOM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:PHAT)
CNST
SCHOLAR ROCK HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:SRRK)
VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (XNAS:VNDA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
172.97M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
70.46M
102.52M
62.00M
-
82.85M
-
-
144.85M
-
5.33M
3.22M
- 40354.00K
- 42337.00K
- 49201.00K
- 48906.00K
297.00K
- 49201.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
865.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.43M
Change in Working Capital :
- 17639.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 564.00K
Other Working Capital:
585.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.18M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 21456.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 642.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
38.37M
70.19M
108.56M
25.65M
28.52M
10.09M
172.81M
25.32M
1.32M
-
-
-
22.45M
49.09M
-
221.91M
31.47M
16.98M
-
1.26M
16.95M
66.66M
71.56M
3.28M
74.84M
-
141.50M
177.00K
- 976626.00K
- 1635.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
215.31M
79.41M
220.91M
-
88.54M
50.2M
9.38M
- 113.00K
8.62M
-
-
-
-
2.45M
2.45M
- 284.00K
- 10669.00K
40.38M
51.04M
- 21456.00K
- 113.00K
- 21569.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CERS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.24
$1.76
$1.89
$2.04
$2.19