_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ceridian Hcm Holding Inc. (XNYS:CDAY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CDAY
Name:
CERIDIAN HCM HOLDING INC. (XNYS:CDAY)
Sector:
- 14400.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. David Ossip
Total Employees:
7,462
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -155.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CERIDIAN HCM HOLDING INC.(CDAY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
58.09
One Month Price Target:
$58.58
Six Month Price Target :
$61.
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$63.91
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$57.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.26
This week:
$49.53
This month :
$40.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.14B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
153.06M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.41%
-14.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$75.86
$67.72
$40.32
$48.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$65.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.34
$51.08
$52.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CDAY
Sharpe Ratio:
1.06%
Comparison:
CDAY, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 9.47% higher than the industry
& is -53.71% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CDAY
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.86%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 3.67% above industry average
Classification:
CDAY, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
CDAY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.23%
Weekly Volatility:
7.22%
Monthly Volatility:
14.44%
Yearly Volatility:
50.03%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.16%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.04% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.59%
Weekly VaR:
-14.73%
Monthly VaR:
-29.47%
How Much Can the price of
CDAY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$43.24
This translates to price declining to:
$8.71
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CDAY is a 107.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 78.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CDAY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.49
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.065
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.506
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.01
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.273
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.876
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.044
Beta is 42.82% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 11.66% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.031
Alpha is 29.72% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -195% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CDAY
Equity cost of capital:
0.134
Equity cost of capital is 8.67% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.05%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.25%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.25%
WACC is 33.61% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.08
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -94.52% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.55
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$8.15
EBITDA per share
$0.11
Valuation Analysis Today of
CDAY
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
43.56
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
CDAY is -159.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.21
Price to sales ratio is -28.43% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.15
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-7.59%
Net income growth rate is -103.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
58.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
42.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.27%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.24%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -79.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.48
Interest coverage ratio is -99.09% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.17%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.662
Statistical significance of correlation:
CDAY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 31.64% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.048
Kurtosis
2.839
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.274
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CDAY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
145%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-5.39%
Operating profit margin is -71.86% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
145%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.12%
Effective tax rate is -31.31% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is -70.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is -80.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.05
Current ratio is -65.09% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
22.7
Cash conversion cycle is -76.00% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-42.46%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
145.1K
Each employee generates -58% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.3K
Each employee generates -78% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 11.2K
Each employee generates -36% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.9K
Each employee generates -75% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
413.0K
Each employee generates -75% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CDAY
DYNATRACE, INC. (XNYS:DT)
Bill.com Holdings Inc (XNYS:BILL)
GODADDY INC. (XNYS:GDDY)
FAIR ISAAC CORPORATION (XNYS:FICO)
BLACK KNIGHT, INC. (XNYS:BKI)
LEIDOS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:LDOS)
AVALARA, INC. (XNYS:AVLR)
ZENDESK, INC. (XNYS:ZEN)
TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED (XNYS:TDY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.08B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
690.80M
392.20M
134.00M
-
444.20M
-
- 134000.00K
444.20M
-
36.10M
83.40M
17.40M
- 58400.00K
- 83600.00K
- 102100.00K
- 18500.00K
- 83600.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.90M
Differed Income Tax :
4.50M
Stock Based Compensation :
35.50M
Change in Working Capital :
- 31900.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 10500.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.50M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 276900.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
354.80M
-
354.80M
144.50M
-
7.48B
7.98B
163.00M
2.34B
330.10M
-
-
251.60M
3.08B
-
11.06B
49.40M
19.50M
-
48.10M
7.51B
7.63B
1.25B
43.00M
1.29B
-
8.92B
1.50M
- 326600.00K
- 357900.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.14B
2.14B
11.06B
-
1.27B
911.5M
112.10M
- 19900.00K
- 184700.00K
- 2100.00K
-
-
-
3.89B
3.88B
1.70M
3.71B
5.66B
1.95B
5.50M
- 19900.00K
- 14400.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CDAY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$49.93
$54.94
$60.44
$66.50
$73.16